MLB Best Bets for Thursday, October 9, 2025: Dodgers vs. Brewers

Game 2 of the NLCS brings a complete 180 from the offensive fireworks we’ve seen elsewhere in October. After Blake Snell absolutely dominated in Game 1—8 innings, 1 hit, 10 strikeouts—we’re getting another pitcher-forward matchup with Yoshinobu Yamamoto facing Freddy Peralta. 

Both guys bring swing-and-miss arsenals, cool Milwaukee temps are knocking down ball flight, and the bullpens are mostly rested and ready to lock things down. The Dodgers’ right-handed stack remains dangerous, but Peralta’s early strikeout upside gives Milwaukee a window before the game flattens out in the late innings. This one’s about capitalizing on the first five innings and trusting the arms to keep runs off the board.

Dodgers at Brewers Game 2: The Best Bets

1) Brewers First 5 Innings ML +100

Edge in one line:
Peralta’s strikeout stuff early neutralizes LA’s power before both bullpens—rested and ready—flatten the game in the back half.

Breakdown:

The full-game number is muddied by bullpen strength on both sides, but the first five innings isolate Freddy Peralta’s best window. Peralta’s ride-and-whiff style plays perfectly against this Dodgers lineup. Yamamoto has the arsenal to succeed, but his first trip through Milwaukee’s order might be rocky— usually, he needs an inning or two to settle in.

Milwaukee’s left-handed core—completely erased by Snell in Game 1—gets back into play against a right-hander, and their right-handed pockets (Contreras, Vaughn) have shown they can do damage in spurts. 

This number should be closer to pick ’em. At plus-money, you’re getting value on the team with the starting pitching advantage in the window that matters most.

2) Full Game Under 7.5 (-120)

Edge in one line:
Cool temps, swing-and-miss stuff on both sides, and fresh bullpens behind them. Add it all up, and the number feels a little high.

Breakdown:

My mean number sits at 7.0 runs, and the environmental factors are all working in the Under’s favor. Cool Milwaukee temps knock down ball flight, both starters bring elite swing-and-miss stuff, and the bullpens—outside of minor possible fatigue on Uribe and Sasaki—are fresh and equipped to choke out late-game rallies.

Game 1 showed us the blueprint: Snell dominated, the Brewers’ bullpen chain worked 7+ innings, and the only real damage came on a Freddie Freeman solo shot and some walks from Uribe. That’s the type of tight, pitcher-forward game we’re expecting again. Both clubs can manage traffic late, and neither offense is built to string together crooked numbers against quality arms.

Player Props to Target

William Contreras Over 1.5 Total Bases (+131)

Contreras owns one the best right-handed bat versus right-handed pitching stats in Milwaukee’s lineup, and he’s aggressive on early heaters—exactly what Peralta will feed him. If he gets four plate appearances, one extra-base hit clears this number, and his power from the right side plays in playoff environments. At plus-money, this is a clean swing.

Freddy Peralta Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-125)

Peralta’s K/9 sits at 10.4, and the path to 6-7 strikeouts over six innings is very much in play against a Dodgers lineup that can be patient but also swings and misses. The pitch count risk is real—LA works counts and forces starters out early—which is why you need a good line to play this prop. Over 5.5 is playable up to -130; anything worse than that and I’d pass.

Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Total Bases (+141)

Freeman’s recognition against four-seam fastballs is elite, and if Peralta misses arm-side, Freeman will punish it. He’s also going to see right-handed bulk arms later in the game, which expands his paths to an extra-base hit. His small sample against Peralta (.458 SLG) is encouraging, and in a game where runs will be hard to come by, Freeman remains one of the few bats capable of creating his own damage.

Recap: Best Bets for Dodgers @ Brewers Game 2