MLB Best Bets for Monday, October 20th, 2025

ALCS Game 7 — Mariners at Blue Jays | Why Shane Bieber’s proven edge have us backing the home side

We’ve got a nail biting Game 7 in Toronto with 50,000+ ready to lose their minds in the Rogers Center. The series has been a slugfest of extremes—Seattle snatched the first two in Toronto (3-1, 10-3), the Jays answered with beatdowns in Seattle (13-4, 8-2), then Eugenio Suárez’s grand slam in Game 5 looked like it might break Toronto’s will. It didn’t. Trey Yesavage and a clean defensive effort forced tonight’s winner-take-all behind a 6-2 Game 6 win.

The narrative writes itself: Toronto hasn’t been to the World Series since ’93. Seattle has never been, period. But narratives don’t cash tickets—matchups and execution do.

Tonight is an all-hands situation. Toronto can deploy Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, and Max Scherzer out of the bullpen if needed. Seattle’s got their leverage trio fully rested. Both teams are playing with house money and desperation in equal measure.

Best Bets Recap

Main Card:

• Blue Jays ML (-125) — Bieber already solved this lineup; Jays’ offense owns Kirby’s recent history
• First 5 Innings Under 4 (-115) — Quick hooks and leverage arms suppress early crooked numbers

Player Props:

• Addison Barger Over 1.5 H+R+RBI (+140)
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 H+R+RBI (-140)
• Josh Naylor over 1.5 TB (+152)

Breaking Down the Best Bets

1) Blue Jays Moneyline (-125)

Shane Bieber already handled this exact Seattle lineup in Game 3—six innings, four hits, two earned, eight strikeouts. He lived on his fastball and slider, keeping the middle of the order quiet. Julio Rodríguez is hitting .111 across nine plate appearances against him. Cal Raleigh is .250 with no real damage. J.P. Crawford has made contact but mostly singles. The heart of Seattle’s order has been neutralized by him mostly because he thrives on command and pitch-mix variety.

George Kirby, meanwhile, has been consistently worked over by Toronto. In his last three outings against the Jays: 4.2 IP/5 ER, 6 IP/3 ER, and 4 IP/8 ER in Game 3 when Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Addison Barger went yard. Kirby fills the zone—it’s his calling card—but this particular lineup tracks him. They know the release point, they’re patient enough to get his count, and when he misses middle, they don’t miss barrels.

The bullpen depth tilts toward Toronto in game 7 but only because it’s all hands on deck. The Jays can parade Gausman, Bassitt, Scherzer, Trevor Hoffman, and Louie Varland behind Bieber to shorten innings and keep fresh arms on the mound. 

Seattle’s got three elite leverage guys in Muñoz, Brash, and Speier, but after that, the depth chart gets thin. If Kirby exits early—and Toronto has a history of making that happen—Seattle’s margin for error shrinks fast.

The Play: Blue Jays ML (-125)

First 5 Innings Under 4 (-115)

Game 7 means quick hooks. One baserunner too many, one mistake fastball, and managers are going to their best arms immediately. This isn’t a night for “let’s see if he can work through it.” Both Bieber and Kirby are capable of early contact suppression—Bieber with his slider working down, Kirby by pounding the zone and generating weak contact.

But the real edge here is what happens after them. Toronto can go to Varland, Bassitt, Lauer—all strike-throwers with different looks early. Seattle has Woo, Munoz, Spier and Brash ready to step in if Kirby wobbles. Crooked numbers in the first five innings require either sustained sequencing or mistakes left over the plate. With immediate relief help on standby and both offenses knowing leverage arms are coming early, we’re looking at a tighter, lower-scoring first half.

Toronto struck first in three of the last four games, but those rallies came in innings 2-4 after working counts and getting into bullpens. Tonight, the bullpens are likely a big part of the plan to shut down any rallies. That changes the calculus.

The Play: First 5 Under 4 (-115)

Player Props Sprinkles

Addison Barger Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+140)

Barger went off in Game 6—home run, three RBIs, and he’s been locked in the past few games. Kirby lives in the zone and doesn’t miss bats at an elite rate, which means Barger’s going to get pitches to hit. When Kirby misses middle, Barger has punished him. Plus money on a guy riding a heater in a Game 7? That’s the juice.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 H+R+RBI (-140)

Vlad has cashed this combo in three straight games. He’s hitting in run-rich spots with George Springer and Riley Lukes setting the table, and Kirby’s fastball-heavy approach plays right into Guerrero’s bat path. Even at -140, this feels like the safest prop on the board.

Josh Naylor Over 1.5 TB (+152)

Naylor’s been one of Seattle’s loudest bats in the series — 3 HR coming into game 7 and multiple rockets the last two games, including a 2-hit night in Game 6. Naylor’s best split is vs righties, and once Bieber exits, Toronto’s most trusted leverage arms are also right-handed — giving Naylor several RHP looks. The Toronto native has talked about loving the energy at Rogers Centre in front of friends and family; he’s clearly feeding off it this week and Seattle needs him to step up big in this crucial game.

Live Betting Hedge Opportunity: If It’s Close Late

If you’re on Toronto and the game’s tied heading into the seventh—or the Jays are clinging to a one-run lead—don’t be stubborn. This might be your spot to hedge. Seattle’s bullpen is significantly more trustworthy in close games. Muñoz, Brash, and Speier have been surgical all postseason, and Toronto’s bullpen management has been… let’s call it creative. The Jays have leaned on their rotation guys out of the pen, which works until it doesn’t. Trevor Hoffman threw two innings last night, so if John Schneider asks him to close out a tight Game 7 on short rest, that’s a red flag worth respecting.

If Seattle’s getting plus money in the seventh or eighth with the game within a run, that’s a legitimate hedge opportunity. You’re not abandoning the pregame thesis—you’re acknowledging that late-game execution tilts toward the team with three elite leverage arms versus the team cobbling together outs with starters on fumes. Lock in some profit, sleep better, and let the game play out without sweating every pitch.

Closing Thought

Game 7 at the Rogers Centre with the roof closed and everything on the line. The Jays haven’t been to the World Series since Joe Carter’s swing. The Mariners have never been, period. But tonight’s card isn’t about history—it’s about matchups, depth, and which team has the cleaner path to runs.

Bieber already solved this lineup once. Toronto’s bullpen can throw a parade of strikes for nine innings. Seattle’s blueprint requires late damage, and the Jays if they plan their rotation just right will suffocate exactly that. We’re riding the home side and betting the early unders.