Predictions & Picks, NBA Best Bets for Wednesday, October 22

The NBA tips off this week and on Wednesday, there’s ten games on the menu including some marquee matchups across the country.  We’ll provide our best bets for a trio of games so let’s dive right in.

Philadelphia 76ers vs. Boston Celtics 7:40 p.m. EST

76ers

Philadelphia enters with hope and caution. They’re getting back their elite center Joel Embiid — healthy enough to start the season after knee surgery, which is a major plus.  Unfortunately, the team will be without Paul George as the star is still working his way back from offseason surgery.  After a few good years, the 76ers took a step back last season (24-58) but hope to bounce back with a healthy Embiid. 

Celtics 

Boston comes into the year in transition, a good spot to start taking advantage of the NBA odds. They are missing their star forward Jayson Tatum for the foreseeable future due to an Achilles injury, which changes expectations and leadership structure. Meanwhile, Jaylen Brown is expected to move into the top role, but he is carrying hamstring concerns. Boston remains elite defensively (107.2 points allowed per game last season) and has a strong home-court advantage, 97-26 over the last three seasons.

Match-up Dynamics:

• Boston’s missing Tatum puts more burden on Brown and the supporting cast; whether they can consistently execute early in the season is an open question.
• Philadelphia, meanwhile, has the tools on paper but needs to prove consistency, especially on offense and in finishing games.
• Given Boston’s defensive reputation and home front, plus Philadelphia’s uncertainties, the game could tilt in Boston’s favour—especially early when the Celtics have the edge in rhythm and structure.

Prediction

Without Tatum, Boston will struggle up front but the Celtics have been tough to beat at home over the last few years and that plus a solid defensive identity give them the  early-season edge.

BEST BETS:  Celtics -2.5, UNDER 227.5 

San Antonio Spurs vs. Dallas Mavericks 9:40 p.m. EST

Spurs

San Antonio enters the season with a much-talked-about young core (led by Victor Wembanyama) and new energy, but they’re already dealing with some key early-season absences. Guard Lindy Waters III is out for the opener due to a procedure, while guard De’Aaron Fox and forward Jeremy Sochan are listed as doubtful/out.  The Spurs’ defense was among the weakest in the league last season, and they’ll again need improvement to contend. 

Mavericks

Dallas also enters somewhat transitional mode — they have expectations after a recent playoff run but still carry defensive holes. We’ll see the debut of Cooper Flagg, who was the first pick in the NBA Draft earlier this season.  The Mavs will lean heavily on the 6’9 forward along with some other young pieces. A concern: their center position is shaky early, as Daniel Gafford suffered an ankle injury and may miss time.  In a game against Wemby, that doesn’t bode well for Dallas.

Match-up dynamics:

• San Antonio’s youth and length (Wembanyama plus company) gives them potential upside, but consistency and health are questions.
• Dallas has the edge at home, a slight experience advantage, and fewer major injury concerns for this first game.
• Both teams last season ranked poorly in defense, meaning this opener may lean toward offensive flow and pace. 

Prediction

The Mavericks are healthier than the Spurs and depth on the bench will be the difference in this one. Flagg could be in for a big game in his first NBA appearance and while the Mavs weren’t great last season, they tip off 2025 with a victory.  BEST BET:  Mavericks -2.5

Sacramento Kings vs. Phoenix Suns 10:10 p.m. EST

Kings

The Kings are led by guard Malik Monk and center Domantas Sabonis, a double-double machine who anchors the frontcourt. Sacramento has a well-balanced attack that can push the tempo and overwhelm defenses in transition. Veterans DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine and Russell Westbrook will give head coach Doug Christie some depth for this squad.

Suns

The Suns, meanwhile, enter the season with Devin Booker leading the way as he averaged 25.6 PPG last season.  Last spring, Phoenix traded Durant to Houston in exchange for Jalen Green and Dillon Brooks, but Green is currently injured.  Brooks does add some muscle up front but is known to be erratic with his shot selection.  Still, Booker finds himself as the go-to-guy and will need support from others, or the Suns could be in trouble.

Suns 2024-25 Betting Trends

• Suns were 30-50-2 ATS last season
• ATS, as 4.5-point favorites or greater, the Suns went 11-17-2 last season.
• Last year, 42 of Phoenix’s 82 games went over the point total.

Kings 2024-25 Betting Trends

• Sacramento covered 36 times in 82 games 
• ATS, as underdogs of 4.5 points or greater, the Kings went 10-7 last season.
• Sacramento went OVER in 43 games last season.
• The Kings were underdogs 29 times last season and won nine times.

Prediction

Expect a high-scoring, back-and-forth affair in this early-season Western matchup. The Kings’ chemistry and speed will keep them in this and with the Suns undergoing offseason changes, it could take them a bit longer to find their stride.  I’d rather take the points here with the Kings and lay the points. BEST BETS:  Kings +4, OVER 228.5