AP Top 25 Bets – Week 9

This is the penultimate week of the regular season before the College Football Playoff rankings are released. Ohio State is the clear choice to be the overall No. 1 seed, but the remaining rankings are all still up in the air. There aren’t expected to be any major shakeups this week as only three ranked teams are playing against one another, but that’s typically when we have some of our zaniest results.

No. 7 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets -16.5 vs. Syracuse Orange

Some are still skeptical of Georgia Tech, but I’m all aboard the Rambling Wreck here. The Yellow Jackets took care of business against Duke last week to move to 7-0 on the season. They have yet to beat an elite opponent, but they have knocked off some solid teams along the way, leading to head coach Brent Key being linked to high profile job openings.

Haynes King won’t win the Heisman Trophy since he doesn’t post big numbers, but he has been invaluable to the Yellow Jackets’ success in 2025. King has only been sacked three times, and he has only turned the ball over three times too despite the fact that he is Georgia Tech’s leading rusher with 560 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground. That has helped this offense reliably put up points.

Meanwhile, Syracuse is a mess. The Orange are currently 3-4 and have lost three straight conference games by double digits since a surprising win over Clemson. They have scored a total of 34 points in those three defeats while all three of their opponents dropped at least 30 points on their defense.

Steve Angeli tore his ACL in Syracuse’s loss to Clemson, and backup quarterback Rickie Collins hasn’t been nearly as sharp. Collins has thrown three touchdown passes and seven interceptions in the last three games for the Orange, and he completed under 50% of his passes in Syracuse’s last two losses.

North Carolina Tar Heels +10.5 vs. No. 16 Virginia Cavaliers

Bill Belichick has found himself in a very unfamiliar position. Belichick was a superb NFL coach, but he has fared pretty poorly as a collegiate head coach to this point. North Carolina is one of three teams in the ACC without a conference win so far, and the Tar Heels have been routed by 25+ points in three of their four losses.

Despite the dismal start, North Carolina may have turned a corner last week. The Tar Heels were significant underdogs by the football betting odds against the California Golden Bears, but they hung close and nearly knocked off their opponent on the road in Berkeley. Three turnovers (including a backbreaking goal line fumble) cost the Tar Heels a chance at a victory, yet they showed real signs of life on defense.

Now, North Carolina faces a Virginia team that is pretty overrated when you look at advanced metrics. While the Cavaliers are ranked No. 16 in the AP Poll and the Coaches Poll, they are ranked 50th nationally in SP+. Virginia has greatly benefited from public perception after beating a Florida State team on national television that has since lost four straight games.

The Cavaliers were extremely fortunate to beat Louisville, finishing with 30 points off 237 total yards thanks to two defensive touchdowns. They were perhaps even more fortunate to beat Washington State last week, trailing by 10 points midway through the 4th quarter in a game where they were favored by more than two touchdowns per the CFB betting odds.

The book is out on Chandler Morris. Virginia’s quarterback struggles with his accuracy on routes further than 10 yards down the field, so he has to rely on a variety of underneath throws. Florida State was able to bait him into some big mistakes after the Cavaliers were off script, and both Louisville and Washington State were able to make Morris pretty ineffective. Morris has completed 34 of 56 passes for a paltry 328 yards and a touchdown in his last two games, and I expect Belichick to come up with a gameplan that really puts the clamps on UVA’s passing attack.

Oklahoma State Cowboys +37.5 at No. 14 Texas Tech Red Raiders

It’s clear that the Oklahoma State Cowboys are the worst team in the Big 12. They haven’t won a conference game since 2023, and a loss to Tulsa led to Mike Gundy being fired before the start of Oklahoma State’s Big 12 slate. The Cowboys have since lost all four of their conference games by at least two scores, but the biggest loss of the bunch was by 32 points.

Oklahoma State is the worst team in the Power Four by a wide margin. The Cowboys are ranked 112th in Offensive SP+ and 118th in Defensive SP+. The defense is even worse by traditional metrics, surrendering 43.7 PPG and 509.5 YPG. 

However, despite Oklahoma State’s dreadful season, the Cowboys should not be this large of an underdog. Texas Tech blew out its first three Big 12 opponents by either 24 or 25 points, and the Red Raiders just announced that they will be starting their backup quarterback for the second straight game.

Starting quarterback Behren Morton has left three separate games due to injury so far this season, and he sat out against Arizona State last week. Redshirt freshman Will Hammond started in Morton’s place for the Red Raiders, but he was not very effective against the Sun Devils. Hammond completed 22 of 37 passes for 167 yards with two touchdowns and an interception, and that was a big reason behind Texas Tech suffering its first loss of the season despite being favored by 8.5 points.

Texas Tech also lost one of its top defensive linemen for the season. Head coach Joey McGuire knows that the Red Raiders have a good chance of making the College Football Playoff, but his team needs to stay healthy for the stretch run. With that in mind, McGuire will call off the dogs early and be content with a 20+ point victory instead of running up the score for style points.