COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEST EARLY BETS WEEK 11

By Adam Greene

No. 2 INDIANA AT PENN STATE (+15.5, O/U: 48.5)

Indiana (9-0, 6-0 Big Ten) continued its buzzsaw through the Big Ten last week with a 55-10 blowout win over Maryland, 55-10. Fernando Mendoza didn’t have to do much at quarterback in the beat down, going 14 of 21 for 201 yards, a touchdown and a pick. He added 24 yards and a TD on the ground. That might be why he took a hit in the Heisman Trophy odds, falling to No. 2 at +225 behind Ohio State’s Julian Sayin (+175). The Hoosiers got 110 yards on 14 carries and a score from Kaelon Black as they piled up 364 yards rushing and scored four touchdowns. Omar Cooper, Jr. caught half of Mendoza’s passes, 7, for 86 yards and a TD. The Nittany Lions (3-5, 0-5) fell, as expected, to the Buckeyes, 38-14. Ethan Grunkmeyer, a real person’s name, was 19 of 28 for 145 yards, no TDs and an interception.

Best Bets: Indiana +15.5, Over 48.5 

No. 5 GEORGIA AT MISSISSIPPI STATE (+7.5, O/U: 57.5)

Georgia (7-1, 5-1 SEC) got all it wanted at Florida last week, holding on to a 24-20 victory. Gunner Stockton was 20 of 29 passing for 223 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. Chauncey Bowens rushed nine times for 70 yards and a score. Zachariah Branch hauled in 10 receptions for 112 yards. Mississippi State (5-4, 1-4) won a shootout with Arkansas a week ago, showing that even when SEC teams suck, they can still put on a good show. Do I think that will make a difference in this matchup of Bulldogs? Nope, but I do think we’ll get some points, especially after Georgia was held under 30 seven days before.

Best Bets: Georgia -7.5, Over 57.5

No. 8 BYU AT No. 9 TEXAS TECH (-10, O/U: 51.5)

It’s an early kickoff for our weekly check in with a Latter Day Saints team. The Cougars (8-0, 5-0 Big 12) ride their bicycles east to Jerry World in Arlington, to score, on the field at least, when they do battle with fellow Top 10 squad Texas Tech (8-1, 5-1). BYU thoroughly decaffeinated Iowa State last week, 41-27. Bear Bachmeir was 22 of 35 for 307 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions in the victory. He rushed 12 times for 49 yards and another score. Parker Kingston caught seven passes for 133 yards and two TDs. Chase Roberts had eight grabs for 128 yards. The Red Raiders continued their revenge tour after losing their first game of the year, 26-22 to Arizona State a couple of weeks ago. Drawing the short straw last Saturday was Kansas State, who was fed a 43-20 beat down. Bahren Morton was 21 of 32 passing for 249 yards and two touchdowns with a pick. J’Koby Williams had 17 carries for 135 yards and a score. Cameron Dickey added 21 carries for 68 yards and a TD. Caleb Douglas caught eight passes for 82 yards and got into the end zone twice. While they might not score when they return back to their home dorms, I like the Cougars to team up with Texas Tech to soak the scoreboard and put on a real show here. 

Best Bets: BYU +10, Over 51.5

No. 1 OHIO STATE AT PURDUE (+29.5, O/U: 48)

Another week, another chance to make some money thanks to the Buckeyes (8-0, 5-0 Big Ten) and their backups. This week Purdue (2-7, 0-6) get the chance to welcome OSU’s FCA representatives and Academic All-Big Ten future awardees as the starters will likely watch this one from the sidelines most, if not all, of the third and fourth quarters. Ohio State put it to Penn State 38-14, with Julian Sayin playing the whole game because they didn’t push their lead to more than 17 until midway through the fourth quarter. Sayin was a ridiculous 20 of 23 for 316 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions. Bo Jackson rushed 13 times for 105 yards. Carnell Tate caught five passes for 124 yards and a score. Jeremiah Smith hauled in six passes for 123 yards and two TDs. The Boilermakers actually showed up last week, keeping it tight against Michigan before falling 21-16. Ryan Brown was 19 of 24 for 133 yards, one TD and no picks. Malachi Thomas had 68 yards on the ground. Michael Jackson III caught six balls for 58 yards. As usual when it comes to big spreads, like your sweet, well-meaning girlfriend, I always say that the big ones scare me. It’s probably safe, but we’re making the same play this week we have most of the season with the Buckeyes.

Best Bets: Under 48

No. 3 TEXAS A&M AT No. 19 MISSOURI (+7, O/U: 48)

The Aggies (8-0, 5-0 SEC) ended Brian Kelly’s coaching tenure at LSU two weeks ago with a 49-25 blowout. Marcel Reede was 12 of 21 for 202 yards, two touchdowns and two picks, which doesn’t look like a wining passing stat line to me, especially in a shellacking, but that just shows how bad a head coach Kelly has been. Texas A&M rushed for 224 yards as a team, with Reed doing most of the work with 13 carries for 108 yards and two scores. After looking like one of the best offenses in the country for weeks, Missouri (6-2, 2-2) laid an outright stinker in a 17-10 loss to Vanderbilt a fortnight ago. Matt Zollers went 14 of 23 passing for 138 yards and a touchdown with no interceptions. Ahmad Hardy carried the ball 20 times for 97 yards. Kevin Coleman, Jr. caught seven passes for 109 yards. I feel like Mizzou’s offense will show up this week. Not enough to win, but enough to make it interesting. 

Best Bets: Texas A&M -7, Over 48

No. 6 OREGON AT IOWA (+6, O/U: 41.5)

That line and total is a lot of respect for Iowa (6-2, 4-1 Big Ten), who is on a three-game winning streak after crushing Minnesota 41-3 last week. Now, you might think, looking at that score, that the Hawkeyes’ offense came to life, but then you look at the stats and realize otherwise. Mark Gronkowski was 12 of 19 passing for 135 yards and a touchdown with no interceptions. He added 24 yards and a TD on the ground. Kamair Moulton rushed for 75 yards on 15 carries. One of Iowa’s TDs was on a pick six and another was on a punt return. Oregon (7-1, 4-1) had a surprising battle with Wisconsin two weeks ago, winning 21-7. Dante Moore exited the game in the third quarter with a bloody nose but didn’t do much before that. He was 9 of 15 passing for 86 yards. His replacement, Brock Thomas, was 4 of 4 for 46 yards and a TD with no interceptions. Moore is expected to be back this week. Jordan Davison and Noah Whittington did most of the work on offense. Davis had 16 carries for 102 yards and two TDs. Whittington rushed 14 times for 97 yards. I don’t think the Ducks will be as generous with the ball as the Golden Gophers were this week.

Best Bets: Oregon -6

AUBURN AT No. 15 VANDERBILT (-6.5, O/U: 46)

The post Hugh Freeze era begins at Auburn (4-5, 1-5 SEC) after an embarrassing 10-3 loss to Kentucky a week ago. Auburn had 241 yards of total offense, in the loss, which is a likely reason Freeze, “an offensive mind” was finally shown the nearest exit. Vandy (7-2, 3-2) lost a heartbreaker to Texas last week, 34-31, in the game that might be the turning point in Arch Manning’s first full season as a starter. Diego Pavia was 27 of 38 for 365 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions in the loss. He added 14 carries, 43 yards and a TD on the ground, doing everything he could do to no avail. Eli Stowers caught seven passes for 146 yards and two touchdowns. Sometimes, a coaching change can spur a team to show up and play. I don’t see that with the Tigers here. This one might be a blowout. 

Best Bets: Vanderbilt -6.5. 

LSU AT No. 4 ALABAMA (-10, O/U: 49.5)

Speaking of fired coaches, LSU (5-3, 2-3 SEC) will take the field for the first time since loading Brian Kelly up into the nearest catapult and firing him over the castle wall. The final straw was the aforementioned 49-25 beat down from Texas A&M. Garrett Nussmeir, once thought of as a potential high first round draft pick, may have fallen to Day 3 after that game, going 22 of 35 for 168 yards and a TD with no picks. Bama (7-1, 5-0) got a solid showing from South Carolina but held on for a 29-22 victory. Ty Simpson was 24 of 43 for 253 yards and two touchdowns with no picks. The Tide will roll in this one. I have no idea what the Tigers will even look like. 

Best Bets: Alabama -10

NEBRASKA AT UCLA (-2, O/U: 44)

We head to the left coast for our nightcap this week as Nebraska (6-3, 3-3 Big Ten) tries to bounce back from a 21-17 loss to USC last week. It was rough going on offense for the Huskers, with Dylan Raiola not even hitting 100 yards passing, but he did throw a touchdown and no interceptions. Emmett Johsnon did the work on offense, rushing 29 times for 165 yards and a TD. UCLA (3-5, 3-2) halted their three-game winning streak and looked like the garbage they opened season as, losing 56-6 to Indiana two weeks ago. Nico Iamaleava turned back into a pumpkin just in time for Halloween, going 12 of 27 for 113 yards, no TDs and two picks. Outside of USC and Minnesota, Nebraska’s offense has been decent this year. And their defense is nowhere near as good as Indiana’s. That total looks very reachable here. 

Best Bets: Over 44Follow Adam Greene on Blue Sky @AdamGreene13, threads @adam.greene and Twitter @TheFirstMan