Predicting the 2026 NFL Draft Order

Tanking hasn’t been as big of a feature in the NFL as it has been in the NBA, but we might see some teams really go for it this year. There look to be a handful of elite quarterback prospects in the 2026 NFL Draft, and we could easily see three or four quarterbacks selected in the top ten picks. Certain teams have already implicitly signaled their intention to lose games so that they have a better draft pick, so let’s take a shot at predicting the 2026 NFL Draft order.

No. 1 Overall Pick – New Orleans Saints (1-8)

Although the New York Jets received a lot of attention at the trade deadline, the New Orleans Saints are the team most likely to finish with the worst record. New Orleans only has one win so far this season, and that victory came at home against the 2-7 New York Giants.

The Saints are 1-8 and tipped their hand by replacing Spencer Rattler with rookie Tyler Shough. Rattler hasn’t been great this season, but the second-year quarterback hasn’t been bad either. He needs more reps to develop, yet the Saints are instead giving those reps to Shough. 

Some fans will say that Shough has a better chance to succeed as a second-round pick, but it was a massive reach to take Shough with the 40th overall selection in the 2025 NFL Draft. Furthermore, Shough is actually a full year older than Rattler since Shough spent seven years at the collegiate level. First-year head coach Kellen Moore will have time to turn things around, and New Orleans dealt Rashid Shaheed at the deadline, so the Saints are showing they have patience. Additionally, Arch Manning has rebounded after some early season struggles, and it’s no secret the Saints would love to have Archie Manning’s grandson as their next signal caller.

No. 2 Overall Pick – Tennessee Titans (1-8)

The Tennessee Titans were incredibly lucky to beat the Arizona Cardinals earlier this season. Tennessee was down 15 points entering the fourth quarter, and the Titans needed a few minor miracles to pull off one of the most surprising wins of the season.

That has many pundits calling for the Titans to finish with the NFL’s worst record, but they play in a weaker division than the New Orleans Saints. Additionally, Cam Ward continues to develop and show promise, and the Titans aren’t going to pull the plug on the player they hope will be their franchise quarterback.

Tennessee has a very good pass rush even with standout defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons injured. Simmons hasn’t played for the last two weeks, but the Titans still recorded nine sacks in that span. That should help them win a couple more games too.

No. 3 Overall Pick – New York Jets (1-7)

It’s been a rough season for the New York Jets. New York became the last team to win a game when the Jets beat the Cincinnati Bengals before their bye week, and they needed to score 23 points in the fourth quarter to pull off the upset.

Gang Green traded away their two best defensive players before the deadline on Tuesday, acquiring significant draft capital in return for Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams. That move immediately boosted their odds of landing the No. 1 overall pick, according to the NFL betting odds at BetOnline.

However, the Jets have been competitive in most of their losses despite their 1-7 record. Five of their seven losses have been by one score. Additionally, they face Cleveland, Miami, and New Orleans in their next seven games, boosting their chances of getting wins.

No. 4 Overall Pick – Cleveland Browns (2-6)

Incredibly, the Cleveland Browns are currently paying eight different quarterbacks this season. Jameis Winston, Kenny Pickett, Joe Flacco, and Dorian Thompson-Robinson are no longer on the roster, while Bailey Zappe is on the practice squad and contract albatross Deshaun Watson is still on the PUP List. Rookies Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders will thus be getting the snaps for the rest of the season barring injury.

Gabriel appears to be a game manager. He has now started in four games and has only thrown for over 200 yards one time. The rookie from Oregon has only tossed two interceptions though, so Kevin Stefanski continues to play Gabriel instead of Sanders. 

Cleveland’s defense is good enough to win a handful of games on its own provided the quarterback play isn’t awful. The Browns have Myles Garrett who can take over games by his lonesome, and they are still hopeful that No. 5 overall pick Mason Graham can make an impact along the defensive line. Cold weather will help Cleveland too with four of the Browns’ final six games being at home after Thanksgiving.

No. 5 Overall Pick – Las Vegas Raiders (2-7)

Although Las Vegas is the most talented team on this list, it’s going to be tough for the Raiders to win games the rest of the way. They play in an extremely tough division with three teams combining for an 18-9 record at this point, and the Raiders have four games left against division opponents. Additionally, they don’t have much of a home field advantage as fans of other teams constantly travel to Sin City and buy up tickets.

Unlike other teams on this list, Las Vegas does have a proven veteran quarterback. Geno Smith signed a sizable contract with the Raiders in the offseason, and he can move his team down the field reliably. Turnovers have been a major problem this year with Smith tossing 11 interceptions through eight games, but rookie running back Ashton Jeanty should take more pressure off him over the second half of the season.

The Raiders have posted pretty solid numbers on defense too. Las Vegas is allowing just 5.2 yards per play, ranking 11th in the league in that department. The situational defense has been bad with the Raiders ranking 30th in third-down conversion rate and fourth-down conversion rate, but that tends to even out over the course of a season. They have two elite defenders too in Maxx Crosby and Devin White.