Which Group of Five Team Will Make the 2025-26 College Football Playoff?

After years of being left out in the cold, mainstream college football has finally thrown schools outside the power conferences a bone. The new College Football Playoff rules adopted last year promised at least one spot to a Group of Five team each season. The five highest ranked conference winners are all guaranteed entrance into the CFP, and Boise State was the first “have not” school to make the playoff. Unfortunately for the Broncos, Penn State bottled up Ashton Jeanty and Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl.

Boise State will not be the Group of Five participant in the CFP this season after suffering 20+ point losses to South Florida, Notre Dame, and Fresno State. Instead, one of these teams will carry the banner of the smaller programs in the FBS.

South Florida Bulls (7-2)

The College Football Playoff Selection Committee ranked South Florida as the top Group of Five team on Tuesday. Although the Bulls lost to Memphis and were hammered by Miami earlier in the season, they have a Power Four win over Florida and crushed Boise State, North Texas, and UTSA. USF is currently considered the favorite to win the AAC too per the CFB futures odds.

Byrum Brown has been a superb dual threat quarterback for the Bulls this season. Brown probably doesn’t have an NFL future as a signal caller, but he has been excellent at the college level. He is averaging 8.5 YPA with 19 touchdowns and six interceptions while also being USF’s top running threat with 5.5 YPC and nine rushing touchdowns.

USF has the inside track on making the CFP provided the Bulls take care of business against Navy this week. The Midshipmen lead the AAC at 5-1, and there are three other teams aside from USF with a single conference loss to their name. The Bulls close out their regular season schedule against UAB and Rice, but neither the Blazers nor the Owls should pose much of a threat.

North Texas Mean Green (8-1)

Despite a 27-point palindroming at the hands of South Florida earlier this season, North Texas is in the cat bird’s seat if the Bulls happen to stumble down the stretch. The Mean Green have that lone loss, and their last three games are all against teams in the bottom half of the AAC standings (UAB, Rice, and Temple).

North Texas has some decent wins on its schedule, but the Mean Green needed overtime to beat both Western Michigan and Army. Still, this is the top-ranked non-power conference team in Bill Connelly’s SP+ Rankings. The Mean Green rank third nationally in offense per this metric, and the defense is finally middle-of-the-road after some abysmal performances in recent years.

Freshman Drew Mestemaker is having a phenomenal season and threw for over 600 yards against Charlotte three weeks ago. His only bad outing this year came against USF, as he threw for three of his four interceptions so far this season in that one game.

James Madison Dukes (8-1)

It’s been a dizzying rise up the college football ladder for James Madison. The Dukes were an above average FCS team back in 2013, and they are now seen as the preeminent power in the Sun Belt Conference. Everett Withers and Mike Houston laid a strong foundation in Harrisonburg, helping Curt Cignetti take James Madison to new heights with a 52-9 record during his five years at the helm. The Dukes are currently 36-10 as an FBS program, and second-year head coach Bob Chesney is seen as a top coaching candidate.

James Madison would be atop this list if the Dukes held on to beat Louisville back in early September. The Dukes were up at halftime and tied entering the fourth quarter, but turnovers and penalties killed them in the final frame. They have gone on to win seven straight games, yet none of those victories have come against strong opponents. Victories against Washington State and Coastal Carolina to close out the regular season are necessary for them to earn a spot in the CFP, but the Dukes might find it hard to beat out a two-loss AAC team given the strength of that conference in comparison to the Sun Belt.

Tulane Green Wave (7-2)

Jon Sumrall is one of the most popular names in the coaching carousel. Sumrall has been mentioned as a top candidate for multiple head coach positions in the SEC, as he has worked wonders with a Tulane program that many thought would fall off after the departure of Willie Fritz to Houston. The Green Wave are currently in position to make the AAC Championship Game if South Florida or North Texas slip up. 

Tulane is sitting at 4-1 in the conference with potential tiebreaker wins over both East Carolina and Memphis. The Green Wave were an underdog per the CFB betting odds against the Tigers in Memphis last week, but they took a 21-point lead into the fourth quarter and held off a Memphis comeback at the end. This is by far the lowest regarded CFP team though as Tulane sits at No. 62 in SP+.

The last remaining tests for Tulane are Florida Atlantic, Temple, and Charlotte. The Green Wave will be big favorites over Florida Atlantic and Charlotte, but Temple will be a road game, and two of the Owls’ three AAC losses came by a single point.

Could Two Group of Five Teams Make the 2025-26 College Football Playoff?

There is a path for two Group of Five teams to make the CFP this season since the ACC is a mess. Miami and Louisville have recently collapsed, while last decade’s juggernauts Clemson and Florida State are both below .500. That leaves five teams with just one conference loss, and if Duke wins out, the Blue Devils could totally upend things in the ACC.

Duke is 5-4 overall, but 4-1 in ACC play. The Blue Devils are favored at home against 8-2 Virginia this week, and they will likely be favored against in-state rivals North Carolina and Wake Forest to close out the season. If Duke happens to win out and claim the conference title, the ACC could be completely left out of the CFP. Duke has lost to both Tulane and UConn this season, putting the conference in a potentially precarious position.