NFL Week 12 Sunday Best Bets

It’s been an interesting regular season to this point. The Philadelphia Eagles are once again Super Bowl favorites per the NFL betting odds, and they are tied with the Los Angeles Rams atop the NFC standings. However, the other preseason contenders in the NFC have struggled. Detroit could potentially miss out on the playoffs at 6-4, Green Bay isn’t much better at 6-3-1, and Dallas is in real trouble at 4-5-1.

That pales in comparison to the tumult we have seen in the AFC, though. Baltimore, Buffalo, and Kansas City were all atop the conference futures odds at the start of the season, but all three teams have been disappointing. The Ravens’ struggles can be explained by Lamar Jackson’s injury, but they are still in a tough spot at 5-5. Buffalo is two games behind New England at 7-4, and Kansas City might miss out on the postseason. The Chiefs are 5-5 and have a tough remaining schedule, including this week’s game against the Indianapolis Colts.

Kansas City Chiefs -3 vs. Indianapolis Colts

This is a must-win game for the Kansas City Chiefs. They are 1.5 games behind the Los Angeles Chargers and 3.5 games behind the Denver Broncos in the AFC West. Many bettors will be on Indianapolis as a road underdog this week since the Colts are 8-2, but the Chiefs are the right choice.

Kansas City is .500, but the Chiefs have been incredibly unlucky. They have the third-best point differential in the AFC at +73. All five of their losses have been by one score, while all five of their wins have been by at least 13 points.

Patrick Mahomes should be able to carve up this Indianapolis secondary. The Colts’ defense has been solid on paper, but opposing receivers have been able to run free against these defensive backs. Aaron Rodgers was able to find some openings against this defense three weeks ago, and Mahomes is a far more talented signal caller.

Indianapolis’ offense has been the best in the league to this point. The Colts lead the NFL in points per game, yards per game, and yards per play. However, Indianapolis needed to come back in the fourth quarter twice against Atlanta last week, and the shine might really be off Daniel Jones.

Arizona Cardinals +3 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

The oddsmakers and bettors alike are overestimating Jacksonville after last week’s big win over the Los Angeles Chargers. The Jaguars crushed the Chargers 35-6, but Jacksonville benefited greatly from a completely inept LA offense. Justin Herbert finished with just 81 passing yards, and that allowed the Jaguars to put plenty of points on the board despite a mediocre performance from Trevor Lawrence.

Lawrence might be the most overrated quarterback in the league. He signed a five-year, $275 million contract extension with the Jacksonville Jaguars last offseason, but he has not even come close to living up to that kind of money. The former No. 1 overall pick has completed under 60% of his passes for 6.4 YPA with 11 touchdowns and eight interceptions. That makes it hard to trust the Jaguars as a road favorite.

Arizona is 3-7, but the Cardinals were competitive in their first five losses of the season. They haven’t kept games as close with Jacoby Brissett under center compared to Kyler Murray, but Brissett is not to blame. The veteran quarterback is averaging 1.4 YPA more than Murray, and he has thrown four more touchdown passes while tossing the same number of interceptions.

Instead, turnovers have been the issue. Seattle had two fumble recovery touchdowns against Arizona, while San Francisco benefited greatly from two Brissett interceptions. The Seahawks finished with 44 points off 372 total yards, while the 49ers scored 41 points even though they managed just 281 total yards. Arizona finished with over 200 total yards more than San Francisco last week, but the turnovers proved crucial.

For the most part, turnovers are random. Arizona has been extremely unfortunate this season, while Jacksonville has been pretty lucky considering how poor the offense has performed. I will jump at the chance to take Arizona getting points at home.

Los Angeles Rams -6.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Los Angeles Rams are vying with the Philadelphia Eagles for the overall No. 1 seed in the NFC. They have won five straight games after a disappointing home loss to the San Francisco 49ers on Thursday Night Football, and the first four victories were by 14 points or more before last week’s close win over Seattle. 

Matthew Stafford is one of the favorites to be named NFL MVP. Stafford is completing 66% of his passes for 2,557 yards with 27 touchdowns and two interceptions, and he has thrived with a healthy Puka Nacua alongside Davante Adams. Kyren Williams has been a solid running back too, helping make this one of the most efficient offenses in the league.

Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is an injury-riddled mess. Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan are still on injured reserve, and Chris Godwin is questionable to suit up for Sunday Night Football. That has stressed the limits of Baker Mayfield and this offense, and it led to a subpar outing for Mayfield against Buffalo last week.

To make matters worse, the Tampa Bay defense has struggled recently too. The Buccaneers have surrendered 72 points in their two losses to New England and Buffalo the last two weeks. Haason Reddick and Jamel Dean have both been ruled out, and that will hurt the efficacy of this defense. The loss of Dean will be especially tough as he is the Bucs’ best cornerback by a wide margin.

The Rams should dominate on Sunday night. Stafford has the potential to put up big numbers without Dean in the lineup for the Buccaneers. Look for Nacua to have a big game too, as the Rams put this one away relatively early despite a strong effort from Baker Mayfield and the Bucs. Tampa Bay is just too shorthanded at the moment.