NFL Week 13 Sunday Best Bets

There are only 11 NFL games on Sunday this week. The three Thanksgiving games, the third year of a Black Friday game, and the traditional Monday Night Football tilt have left us with a diminished Sunday slate. However, there is still value on a few Sunday games, so let’s get to it.

Houston Texans +3.5 at Indianapolis Colts

Houston’s postseason hopes were on life support after an 0-3 start. However, the Texans have since won six of their last eight games and moved above .500 for the first time all year with their upset over the Buffalo Bills last Thursday night. 

Backup Davis Mills performed well enough with star quarterback C.J. Stroud sidelined due to a concussion. Mills led the Texans to three straight wins, and Stroud is now ready to take the reins once again. That will give this offense a spark as Stroud is averaging more than a yard more per attempt and is a much better running option than Mills.

The big reason for the Texans’ turnaround though has been their defense in general, and the pass rush in particular. Will Anderson is a real contender to win NFL Defensive Player of the Year after his performance against Buffalo in Week 12, and Anderson and Danielle Hunter were two of the five players with 10+ sacks going into this week. That is a big part of why Houston ranks second in the NFL in scoring defense and first in the league in total defense.

Shane Steichen is still the second favorite to be named NFL Coach of the Year behind Mike Vrabel. Indianapolis has a two-game lead in the NFC South as Steichen has rejuvenated Daniel Jones, but defenses might finally be figuring out how to stop this offense.

The Colts have lost two of their last three games with Daniel Jones throwing four interceptions in that stretch. Jones was sacked a whopping 12 times against Pittsburgh and Atlanta too before the offensive line figured out their pass protection issues over the bye week.

Indianapolis managed just 255 total yards and 10 first downs against Kansas City last week. Jonathan Taylor was completely bottled up by Pittsburgh and Kansas City in losses to those two teams, and I expect Houston to do the same on Sunday. That will short circuit the Colts’ offense, and the Texans will take advantage to pull off the upset.

Buffalo Bills -3 at Pittsburgh Steelers

If the Pittsburgh Steelers knock off the Buffalo Bills on Sunday in the Steel City, both teams will have a 7-5 record. However, it’s hard to see that happening as Pittsburgh does not match up well with Buffalo at all.

The Steelers have lost four of their last six games after a 4-1 start. Mike Tomlin is an incredible coach that will once again have Pittsburgh over .500 despite not having a quarterback that is at least league average, but the Steelers were incredibly fortunate at the start of the season and their luck has run out.

Pittsburgh ranks 10th in scoring offense and 19th in scoring defense. However, the Steelers rank 27th in total offense and 28th in total defense. They have benefited from forcing turnovers (ranking 2nd in the league) and playing disciplined football, but that tends to matter more against marginal teams than an elite team like Buffalo.

The Bills are pretty banged up right now. Buffalo will not have its starting offensive tackles against Pittsburgh, and Josh Allen was sacked eight times against Houston last week despite being one of the toughest quarterbacks to bring down in the league. Fortunately for Buffalo, Pittsburgh does not have great pass rushers. T.J. Watt leads the Steelers with seven sacks, but it looks like he has lost a step at the age of 31.

Despite the injury issues, I expect Buffalo to pull out a win over Pittsburgh on Sunday afternoon. The Bills will make life difficult for Aaron Rodgers, and the Steelers will not be able to effectively run the ball. Rodgers has not been effective in stretching the field, and his injured wrist will bother him in the cold weather.

Under 43 in Washington Commanders vs. Denver Broncos

It’s been a dismal year for the Washington Commanders. Hope was high in the nation’s capital after Washington upset Tampa Bay and Detroit to make the NFC Championship Game last season. However, the Commanders have lost six straight games and might shut down Jayden Daniels for the season with another loss on Sunday night. Daniels injured his elbow in a blowout loss to Seattle earlier this month, causing him to miss multiple games for the second time this season.

Daniels will not play against Denver, so Washington will be forced to start Marcus Mariota once more. Mariota hasn’t performed poorly, but he does not represent the same threat as Daniels as either a passer or a runner. It’s unlikely that Mariota will be able to move the ball against an elite Denver defense.

The Broncos will be welcoming back the best cornerback in the league too. Reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year Patrick Surtain Jr. will suit up for the first time in over a month. Surtain can take an opposing receiver completely out of the game, allowing the safeties more freedom to help other defensive backs or move into the box to stop the run.

Many bettors will simply lay the points with Denver, but the better bet is the Under. Bo Nix has shown that he is unable to hit passes over the top, leading to the Broncos offense being very methodical. Denver is averaging just 6.2 YPA (29th in the NFL), and that’s despite being sacked less often than any other quarterback in the league.

Denver is already looking ahead to the postseason. The Broncos are healthy and in great position coming off their bye week, so I believe they will just look to squeak out a win on Sunday night. They would be the No. 1 overall seed if they win the rest of their games.