Top Totals Tips And Trends For NFL Week 14 And Weather To Watch
Summary
Thursday night’s high-scoring Cowboys-Lions game rewarded bettors who wagered on the over, but this bucks recent trends. Scoring typically dips late in the NFL season as weather becomes a major factor, with wind significantly impacting totals. Games with winds over 10 MPH have gone under 64% of the time in recent years.
This trend is expected to continue in Week 14, with several key games facing adverse conditions. The Titans-Browns matchup has the season’s lowest total (33.5) due to forecasted snow and wind in Cleveland. Similarly, the Steelers-Ravens rivalry historically produces low scores, and windy conditions in Baltimore could further limit offense. Weather will also be a factor in Buffalo for Bengals-Bills, reminding bettors that playoff games in northern cities often see scoring suppressed by the elements.
Thursday night football kicked off NFL Week 14 with bettors bombing in Cowboys-Lions bets on the game total between Dallas (6-5-1) and Detroit (7-5). The total moved from 53 to 55.5 at kickoff with BetOnline reporting 60% of the money wagered over the game total. Those bettors were rewarded early in the 4th quarter on a Cowboys long TD pass and 2-point conversion to cut the Lions lead to 30-27 in an eventual 44-30 Detroit victory. Through 13 weeks and 193 NFL games this season, scoring is averaging about 46.5 points per game.
The scoring numbers may dip in the final month of the season with inclement NFL weather and wind becoming a bigger factor as teams make a playoff push with five games remaining.
Prime time games have produced less scoring than expected this season until the most recent games involving the Lions and Cowboys. That includes the NFL Thanksgiving games on Thursday and Friday that were a fulfilling feast for underdog bettors with the four ‘Dogs going 4-0 both straight up and against the spread (ATS). That made for a happy Thanksgiving for BetOnline sportsbook, and more entertaining watch and wager action with higher scoring games. The Packers 31-24 road win over the Lions and the Cowboys 31-28 win over the AFC champion Chiefs drove the engagement and action with more live/in-game betting.
NFL Totals Trends
Wind speeds and gusty conditions impact NFL games and totals betting more than just cold conditions. Week 13 totals tips saw more rain, snow, wet and windy conditions impact a number of Sunday day games. Ten games on Sunday, Nov. 30 averaged just 38.7 points per game – about 7 points below the season scoring average. That included in Cleveland where weather is often a factor at this time of year. The 49ers 26-8 win over the Browns saw weather impact production with both teams producing just 252 yards offense and combining for 4.0 yards per play.
A report from Playbook Sports and their Totals Tipsheet publication provides these over/under game totals results based on wind speeds.
NFL games with winds at 7+ miles per hour went 1-7 over/under in Week 13, and now 1-9 over/under the last two weeks and 6-18 O/U since Week 10. NFL games with winds at 10 or more MPH are 8-20 O/U so far this season, and 70-125 in the last four years (64% Under).
NFL Week 14 Totals
- Tennessee at Cleveland (-4), total over/under 33.5 points
Beyond the completely clueless rookie quarterbacks taking the field with Cam Ward of the Titans (1-10) and Shedeur Sanders of the Browns (3-9) posting bottom-tier QB ratings, the weather in Cleveland is always worth following as the winds blow off the shores of Lake Erie. With a 60% chance of snow and freezing temperatures near 30 degrees, the projected 7-10 mph winds will be worth monitoring close to kickoff with potential gusting wind conditions driving the game total down to 33.5 – the lowest game total of the season thus far. Cleveland Browns home games continue to have the lowest totals mostly in the mid 30’s with the highest-scoring game reaching 39 points in the Ravens 23-16 win at Cleveland on Nov. 16. The combination of the Browns bottom-5 offense averaging 16.2 points and 258 yards per game and their top-5 defense holding opponents to 271 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play makes for lower scoring results and especially with weather a factor in Cleveland.
- Pittsburgh at Baltimore (-5.5), O/U 42.5 points
The AFC North is underperforming badly this season, and it’s the only division where no team has a winning record. That will change on Sunday, Dec. 7 when the Steelers (6-6) and Ravens (6-6) battle for first place. The two teams will meet again in Week 18 at Pittsburgh on Jan. 4. This tightly-contested series has averaged just 33.2 combined points in the last 10 meetings with over/unders going 1-9 and nine of those contests finishing with 42 points or less. This year both the Steelers and Ravens defenses are below average statistically, allowing 24.4 and 24.1 points per game and the Ravens only out-gaining three of their 12 opponents. The recent return of QB Lamar Jackson from a hamstring injury and issue gives the Ravens rushing attack a boost as well. Baltimore’s usually strong running game is down this season but still top-5 in the league averaging 137 yards per game, but on fewer attempts than usual (27.5) The Steelers bottom-5 rushing attack is averaging just 94 yards per game (23.6 attempts). With both defenses allowing an identical 118 rushing yards per game, the edge goes to the Ravens knowing that Pittsburgh got pounded at the point of attack last week allowing the Buffalo Bills to stampede their way to 249 rushing yards on a NFL season-high 51 carries. With temperatures near 40 degrees and 7-10 mph winds, it’s the Ravens who will rely on Lamar and their running game, which ran roughshed over the Steelers for 299 yards in last season’s playoff rout in Baltimore to send the Steelers to their fifth straight loss and end their season following a 10-3 start.
- Cincinnati at Buffalo (-5.5), O/U 53.5 points
Another early Sunday game with a weather watch is in Buffalo, where snow showers are likely and 2-4 inches of accumulation possible. Freezing temperatures near 30 degrees projected at kickoff along with 6-8 mph winds gusting to 12 mph. Two top quarterbacks who are proven performers and more capable and competent make watching Joe Burrow and Josh Allen a more engaging and exciting football game regardless of the weather. Recall in January, 2023 when the Bengals and Burrow beat the Bills and Allen 27-10 in the AFC divisional round on a snow-covered field in Buffalo. The Bengals league-worst defense this season is allowing 31.2 points and 410 yards per game at 6.3 yards per play while ranking bottom-5 in total DVOA. That makes it more difficult to bet the under in Bengals games, until you factor in and monitor the weather.
That reminds us that the playoffs are approaching, and many projected AFC playoff teams will be hosting games in New England (Foxboro), Denver, Buffalo, Baltimore or Pittsburgh. Add in NFC leaders Chicago, Philadelphia, Green Bay and Seattle and you can count on inclement weather and wind impacting play, performances and scoring in the NFL playoffs.
You can bet on it.
