Top 3 NFL Christmas Day Picks And Props
Summary
The NFL’s 2025 Christmas Day schedule features three games, but the holiday matchups lack playoff drama as five of the six teams are eliminated. The prime-time game sees the top-seeded Denver Broncos face the Kansas City Chiefs, who are out of contention. The Detroit Lions have a slim 6% playoff chance, while the Dallas Cowboys and Washington Commanders are also eliminated.
All three games have the road teams as significant favorites, largely due to injuries forcing backup quarterbacks to start for the home teams. Betting analysis highlights props and wagers, including backing Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott to exceed 270.5 passing yards and using the Cowboys and Lions together in a 6-point teaser bet.
The NFL’s “Holly Jolly Christmas” for 2025 means three big football games on Christmas Day. Unfortunately, for the National Football League’s promotional money-making team, five of the six teams are out of the playoff picture. The three division duels include the nightcap as the Denver Broncos (12-3) lead Santa’s Sleigh into Kansas City (6-9), where the preseason AFC favorite Chiefs have been eliminated from postseason contention after winning 9-straight AFC West titles and representing the conference in last season’s Super Bowl.
The Broncos are currently the No. 1 seed in the AFC with two games remaining against the Chiefs and next week’s season finale home game against division rival Los Angeles Chargers (11-4), who could still win the division and are one of five teams that could still secure the AFC’s No. 1 seed and first-round playoff bye.
The Detroit Lions (8-7) only hope to make the playoffs is to win at Minnesota (7-8) against the Vikings on Christmas, win again at Chicago (11-4) against the first place Bears in Week 18, and have the Green Bay Packers (9-5-1) lose to both the Baltimore Ravens (7-8) this Saturday and lose again at Minnesota in Week 18 to conclude the regular season. Next Gen Stats gives the Lions a 6% chance to make the postseason and join the playoff party.
Both the Dallas Cowboys (6-8-1) and Washington Commanders (4-11) have been eliminated from playoff contention, one season after the Commanders made it to the NFC Championship Game.
Christmas Day Matchups And Odds
Betting lines and NFL odds from BetOnline and top online sportsbooks refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live/in-game betting. Point spread on favorites, and all times Eastern (ET) in the U.S.
- Dallas (-7.5) at Washington, 50.5 | 1 pm | Netflix
- Detroit (-7.5) at Minnesota, 43 | 4:30 pm | Netflix
- Denver (-13.5) at Kansas City, 36.5 | 8:15 pm | Amazon Prime
A rare scenario to see not only three road favorites on Christmas Day, but big favorites laying more than a touchdown. Much of that is due to the quarterback situations and injuries affecting the three home teams. The betting public is backing the road favorites, as BetOnline reports early bet count on the Cowboys (68%), Lions (78%), and Broncos (58%) with much more spread, moneyline and totals betting on Christmas Eve and Day.
- Quarterback Josh Johnson will start for the Commanders. The 39-year-old journeyman has played for 14 NFL teams, a league record. In Week 7 on Oct. xx, the Cowboys buried the Commanders 44-22 as a 1.5 point favorite. Last year’s Rookie of the Year, QB Jayden Daniels, suffered a hamstring injury in the third quarter. A recurring knee issue plus a dislocated elbow ended his season in November.
- Rookie Max Brosmer will make his second start for the Vikings. In Week 9 on Nov. 2, the Vikings went into Detroit and beat the Lions 27-24 as a 9.5-point underdog with J.J. McCarthy the starting quarterback.
- Chiefs QB Chris Oladokun will make his first NFL start against the Broncos on Christmas Day. He’s spent the last four seasons on the Chiefs’ practice squad. Patrick Mahomes suffered a torn ACL in Week 15, and backup Gardner Minshew suffered a season-ending knee injury in the Week 16 loss at Tennessee.
Christmas Day Props
Additional NFL news, stats and betting info, along with picks, parlays and props, will drive more watch and wager action on Christmas and through Week 17 and 18. That includes popular player and team props to consider below.
- 1. Cowboys QB Dak Prescott – Over 270.5 passing yards
Pro Football Focus has Prescott the No. 3 quarterback in Week 17 fantasy ratings. Prescott ranks 10th in PFF passing grade off of play action, and he’ll attack a Commanders team that has struggled against play action (26th in yards per play allowed). Prescott is pushing for the league passing title, as his 4,175 yards (278/game) is just four yards behind MVP favorite Matthew Stafford of the Rams. Prescott only passed the ball 30 times against the Commanders in the Week 7 matchup, but for 264 yards and a strong 8.8 yards per pass attempt. He has a pair of 1,000-yard receivers with both George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb averaging 85-90 receiving yards per game. Since late November, Prescott has passed for 354 yards (PHI), 320 (KC), 376 (at DET), 294 (MIN) and 244 at Los Angeles last week on just 30 pass attempts (8.1 yards per pass) against the Chargers top-5 pass defense that allows an average of just 179 passing yards per game, 5.9 yards per pass and 61% completions. The NFL weather looks fine in D.C. on Christmas Day with mid-40s temperatures at kickoff and light winds less than 10 mph.
- Team to Score First and Win – Cowboys (-120)
The Dallas Cowboys are 1st Half ‘Over’ Kings. The Playbook Totals Tipsheet points out that the Cowboys have gone an amazing 14-1 over/under in the 1st half of their games this year. That’s the best over the total mark for any team in the last 30 years. A fast start against the Commanders’ weak defense with Dallas to score first provides a reasonable moneyline price to parlay bet the Cowboys to score first and win the game rather than lay big moneyline odds of -450 for Dallas to win or straight bet to cover the -7.5 point spread.
- 6-point teaser leg on Cowboys and Lions
Starting in mid-October, the Commanders lost 8 straight games before a Week 15 road win against the last-place Giants. Last week’s 29-18 home loss to the Eagles saw the Commanders gain just 230 yards on offense at 4.3 yards per play with Josh Johnson just 5-of-9 passing for 43 yards in relief of injured starter Marcus Mariota. Sticking with the Cowboys to add to their rival Commanders, crumbling with a 6-point teaser on the Cowboys plus the Lions (-1.5) to get redemption against the Vikings with Minnesota’s backup rookie quarterback making his second start.
Check out more ways to bet on the NFL, plus BetOnline’s best 2-team teaser odds (-120) with the latest NFL news and betting insight. More ways to watch and wager, including picks, props, and parlays, plus tips, totals, and teasers, which went a combined 6-1 in Week 16 on three key matchups between playoff-contending teams.
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