NHL Best Bets Today | Expert Picks for Sat, December 27
Summary
Following the holiday break, the NHL returns with key matchups favoring teams that maintained their momentum. The New York Rangers visit the New York Islanders, boasting a strong road record and a history of high-scoring games against their rivals’ struggling penalty kill. Separately, the Minnesota Wild, winners of seven of their last ten, face the slumping Winnipeg Jets, who are on a four-game losing streak with severe offensive woes.
Specific bets are highlighted. For the Rangers-Islanders game, the over on total goals is recommended due to the Rangers’ potent offense and the Islanders’ defensive vulnerabilities. In the other contest, the Wild are favored to win outright, capitalizing on their depth and current form against the Jets’ stagnant attack and shaky defense.
The NHL is back from its Christmas break, and the first slate of games couldn’t set up any better for some sharp bets. After three days off, some teams are refreshed and ready to roll — while others are about to find out that rust is real and momentum doesn’t pause just because the calendar does.
In New York, the Rangers head to UBS Arena riding a strong road record and facing an Islanders team they’ve absolutely owned lately — including winning five of their last seven visits to Long Island. In Winnipeg, the Wild are red hot after winning seven of their last ten, while the Winnipeg Jets limp in on a four-game losing streak, where they’ve managed just seven total goals and looked completely lost offensively.
First games back from the holidays always separate the hungry from the sluggish. Let’s cash in on the teams that most likely stayed sharp.
1 Over 5.5 Total Goals (-101) | Rangers at Islanders
The Rangers have scored 5+ goals in six of their last ten meetings with the Islanders, their power play is humming against a penalty kill that’s operating at 61% over the last five games, and this total is priced like both teams ate way too much turkey.
New York just hung seven on Washington before the break, and they’ve been surgical on the man advantage all season. The Islanders’ penalty kill isn’t just struggling — it’s collapsing at a pace that’s brutal for any team, let alone one chasing the playoffs.
The last few Rangers-Islanders games have opened up late, too. These aren’t 2-1 defensive slogs anymore — they’re track meets with skill players getting space and goaltenders getting tested. The Rangers have won five of their last seven visits to UBS Arena, and most of those wins came with goals flying. At -101, you’re getting a number that should be closer to 6 based on how both teams match up and how New York’s been scoring in bunches lately.
Player Props:
Mika Zibanejad Over 2.5 Shots on Goal
Zibanejad is the engine of the Rangers’ power play, and he gets premium ice time in a matchup where New York should see multiple man advantages.
Even at 5-on-5, Zibanejad’s been aggressive shooting from the slot and creating chances off the cycle. The Islanders don’t have the defensive structure to shut down New York’s top line for 60 minutes, and Zibanejad may see north of 20 minutes with power-play time factored in.
2) Wild ML (-111) | Minnesota at Winnipeg
Minnesota’s rolling three scoring lines and where riding momentum right into the Christmas break. Winnipeg’s lost four straight, hasn’t scored in back-to-back games, and now returns home after six days off — likely carrying some holiday rust.
Seven goals in four games? That’s not a cold streak. That’s the offense of waving the white flag. Their second and third lines have been invisible, and even Connor Hellebuyck can’t bail them out when the team in front of him is getting outshot and out-chanced every single night.
Meanwhile, the Wild have got three lines that can hurt you, and their depth is exactly what kills teams like Winnipeg that rely too heavily on their top six.
Minnesota’s also got the goaltending edge here. Filip Gustavsson has been rock-solid with a .912 save percentage and elite even-strength numbers, and he’s got a defense in front of him that actually gives him a chance. Hellebuyck has the same save percentage, but he’s getting hung out to dry by a Jets team that’s giving up way too many chances per game. At -111, you’re getting a short price on the better team with momentum. Maybe the break cooled them off — but if either squad stayed locked in over the holidays, I’m betting it was the Wild.
Player Props:
Matt Boldy Anytime Goal
Boldy’s got 22 goals in 38 games and is locked in on Minnesota’s second line with Joel Eriksson Ek — a duo that owns the puck and piles up high-danger chances. The Jets’ defense has been brutal at limiting quality looks, and Boldy thrives in exactly these situations.
Joel Eriksson Ek Over Points
Tied to Boldy’s production is Joel Eriksson Ek — the engine of Minnesota’s second line. He logs heavy minutes in all situations, drives offense through transition, and racks up primary assists when that line catches fire. Even if he doesn’t score himself, he’s setting up goals or cleaning up garbage around the net. I also like Over assists if the points value isn’t there.
