FRIDAY AFTERNOON QUARTERBACK: NFL WEEK 18
Summary
The final week of the NFL regular season features many games with playoff implications, making them compelling for fans and bettors alike. Key matchups include Tampa Bay trying to secure a playoff spot against Carolina, and a high-stakes NFC West clash where Seattle faces San Francisco for seeding. Other crucial games see Houston battling Indianapolis for the AFC South, while Atlanta and New Orleans fight in a pivotal divisional contest.
Several outcomes will shape the postseason landscape. Jacksonville aims to win the AFC South by defeating Tennessee, and Philadelphia’s approach against Washington depends on earlier results. In the AFC, Denver has secured the top seed, and Baltimore faces Pittsburgh in a classic rivalry game with playoff positioning on the line. The week concludes with every result impacting the final playoff picture.
It’s the final week of the regular season, and for everyone who thinks most of these games don’t matter, I hope someday a good friend introduces you to gambling. Because there’s a fun way for ALL these games to matter. Let’s pick them!
SATURDAY
CAROLINA PANTHERS AT TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-2.5, O/U: 44)
There’s some convoluted math out there that says that the Bucs can win this game and still miss the playoffs because of the Atlanta Falcons, but if there’s one thing I will not stand for, it’s figuring out any difficult math. If it can’t be done with the basic calculator on my iPhone, not that crazy one with all the squiggles my thumb accidentally makes happen, I ain’t even looking at it. Also, lately, has Tampa Bay proven it can win anything? Panthers 23, Buccaneers 20.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (+1.5, O/U: 47)
One of these teams will be the No. 1 seed in the NFC, and the other could be as low as the sixth. That’s how weird the NFC West has played out. I want to pick the 49ers because, as a hater, nothing would make me happier than to see them lose in the playoffs at home in the same season the Super Bowl will be played there. But who on the Niners’ defense is stopping the Seahawks? It’s Sam Darnold’s world now. And in a crazy 2025, that might just be the most insane fact of all. Seahawks 37, 49ers 27.
SUNDAY
GREEN BAY PACKERS AT MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-7, O/U: 35.5)
The Packers might not have a quarterback at all playing in this one, and I still feel like giving the Vikes a touchdown seems insulting. Vikings 13, Packers 10.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS AT HOUSTON TEXANS (-10. O/U: 39)
Considering the Texans are still playing for the AFC South title and playoff home game, there’s a good chance Colts rookie quarterback Riley Leonard will get the full Jake Paul treatment in this one. Keep that white towel on hand, Shane Steichen. Texans 31, Colts 3.
CLEVELAND BROWNS AT CINCINNATI BENGALS (-7.5, O/U: 45)
I’m I the only one kinda worried that Joe Burrow’s fragile body is all that stands in the way of Myles Garrett setting a new sack record? Cincy should just turn him loose on the first play and get it over with. I’m scared for you, Joe. Bengals 23, Browns 16.
DALLAS COWBOYS AT NEW YORK GIANTS (+3.5, O/U: 51)
You know, next year, this should be a fun game. This year, it should still be fun to bet on. That over is looking ripe. Cowboys 37, Giants 30.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS AT ATLANTA FALCONS (-3, O/U: 44.5)
This would be just the kind of stupid game the Falcons lose after forcing the Los Angeles Rams to ponder the meaning of life for the last six days, staring soulfully into mirrors and out rain-soaked windows. Sure, the Saints are better than they should be, but Atlanta, don’t screw this up. Falcons 27, Saints 13.
TENNESSEE TITANS AT JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (-12.5, O/U: 47.5)
If the Jags lose, then they’ll fall to the AFC Wild Card, and the Texans will take over the NFC South. Which means Jacksonville will really pour it on to Tennessee, and maybe Houston will hit 40 on the Colts just to take out their frustrations about it. Jaguars 34, Titans 13.
MIAMI DOLPHINS AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-10.5, O/U: 45.5)
Technically, the Pats are playing for a chance to be the No. 1 seed, but considering the Los Angeles Chargers are resting Justin Herbert against the Denver Broncos, I can’t see them taking this one too seriously. Which seems to usually work in the Dolphins’ favor. Patriots 23, Dolphins 20.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS AT LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (+5, O/U: 37)
I know we always say that no one really tanks in the NFL, but I have to believe that Tom Brady will physically punch Pete Carroll in the face if the Raiders win this game and cost themselves the chance to draft Fernando Mendoza. Yes, Vegas’ draft hopes now rest in the infinitesimally small hands of Kenny Pickett. Chiefs 13, Raiders 10.
DETROIT LIONS AT CHICAGO BEARS (-3, O/U: 50.5)
If the Bears had won last week and had the No. 1 seed in the NFC in hand here, I’d have picked the Lions for the upset. As it is, neither of these teams is playing for anything now, and, as a Rams fan, I’ve seen this Jared Goff story before. Bears 27, Lions 20.
NEW YORK JETS AT BUFFALO BILLS (-7, O/U: 37.5)
What makes you feel bad for the Jets is that, as bad as it is right now, with this coaching staff, it’s just going to get worse. Enjoy the offseason, New York fans. This is the best it’s going to get. Bills 27, Jets 6
WASHINGTON COMMANDERS AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-3.5, O/U: 39)
By the time this game kicks off, the Eagles will know if they’re the No. 2 or No. 3 seed, and that, realistically, has to change how they approach it. If they have a shot at the two, they get a severely injured Packers squad. If they’re the three, they get either the 49ers or the Rams. I know what I’d prefer. Either way, they should win i,t considering the Commanders are fielding a Fudrucker’s Grillmaster at QB. It’s just the total and the spread that’s affected. Eagles 20, Commanders 13
ARIZONA CARDINALS AT LOS ANGELES RAMS (-7, O/U: 46)
Sean McVay looked almost as angry as I felt after the Rams blew their game against the Falcons last week. All it cost them is maybe the MVP for Matthew Stafford, but it definitely cost backup left tackle DJ Humphries an NFL job in the future. No one has been that abused in Atlanta since Diddy went to prison. Rams 37, Cardinals 17
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS AT DENVER BRONCOS (-12.5, O/U: 37.5)
Denver has the No. 1 seed in the AFC, and the Chargers are resting Justin Herbert in the vain hope that the greatest one who’s never won anything can actually win his first playoff game next week. It won’t happen, but sitting him is the right call. If Miami shows up in New England, Denver could be playing for nothing here. And that’s a lot of points for what might be a meaningless game. Broncos 24, Chargers 16
BALTIMORE RAVENS AT PITTSBURGH STEELERS (+3.5, O/U: 41)
Here it is, the game of the week. TJ Watt will probably still be out. Lamar Jackson is trending toward playing. Derrick Henry just ran for 785 yards in a single game, but this one is in Pittsburgh, and Mike Tomlin is just itching to go one-and-done in the playoffs, what might be one final time. Sorry, Mike. Ravens 20, Steelers 17
Last Week
Straight up: 8-8
Against the spread: 6-10
Season
Straight up: 164-89-1
Against the spread: 123-131
Survivor Pool Picks: Broncos (Week 1), Ravens (Week 2), Bucs (Week 3), Bills (Week 4), Rams (Week 5) X, Colts (Week 6), Patriots (Week 7), Chiefs (Week 8), Chargers (Week 9), Lions (Week 10), 49ers (Week 11), Packers (Week 12), Seahawks (Week 13), Browns (Week 14), Texans (Week 15), Bears (Week 16), Bengals (Week 17), Eagles (Week 18)
