NFL Week 18 Sunday Best Bets

Six of the seven playoff spots in each conference are locked up headed into the final week of the 2025-26 NFL regular season. However, the NFC South and AFC North still need to crown a winner in order to complete the playoff picture. The former division might get tricky to figure out at the end. If Tampa Bay beats Carolina in the first game of Week 18, the winner of Atlanta and New Orleans on Sunday will determine the NFC South champion. Neither the Falcons nor the Saints has anything to play for other than draft position, so it would put those teams in a very interesting position. Meanwhile, the AFC North situation is more cut and dry. A Pittsburgh victory or a tie will give the Steelers the division title, while a Baltimore win will put the Ravens in the postseason.

Green Bay Packers +9.5 at Minnesota Vikings

Head coach Matt LaFleur is sitting out a lot of Green Bay’s starters for the last regular-season game. The Packers locked up a playoff berth last week, rendering this game meaningless for Green Bay as they are guaranteed to be the No. 7 seed. Third-string quarterback Clayton Tune will get the start over both Jordan Love and Malik Willis, as the injury-plagued Packers don’t want to risk losing one of their signal-callers prior to the postseason.

Tune has not been good in his three seasons in the NFL. The Houston product has completed 15 passes and thrown three interceptions, averaging just 2.9 YPA. That has led to the line shifting dramatically in Minnesota’s favor, but the Vikings should not be this much of a favorite per the NFL betting odds, given they have nothing to play for but pride.

Second-year quarterback J.J. McCarthy has not been good, throwing more interceptions than touchdown passes. McCarthy did post solid numbers against Washington a few weeks ago, but the Commanders have completely collapsed with 10 losses in their last 11 games. To make matters worse for Minnesota, the Vikes will be without starting running back Aaron Jones and top tight end T.J. Hockenson.

Minnesota should be favored in the regular-season finale. However, the Vikings don’t deserve to be favored by almost double digits. They have only won three games by more than one score all season, and this is a spot that is traditionally good for underdogs. Bettors overreact to teams benching starters, and there’s no doubt this line is an overcorrection.

Tennessee Titans +13.5 at Jacksonville Jaguars

There’s no doubt that Jacksonville will be motivated to win on Sunday. The Jaguars can win the AFC South for just the third time, and that would ensure they play at least one postseason game at home. Jacksonville has completely turned things around in just one season under new head coach Liam Coen, winning at least 12 games for the first time in two decades, leading to Coen being one of the frontrunners to be named NFL Coach of the Year.

Tennessee has been increasingly competitive over the course of the season, though. Cam Ward is starting to show some real development, and he has led the 3-13 Titans to wins in two of their last four games. Ward has been sacked a whopping 55 times, but he has also thrown for over 3,000 yards, and he has tossed eight touchdown passes against just one interception in his last four starts.

Ward isn’t the only player looking to prove something, either. Tony Pollard has some financial incentives on the line coming into this Week 18 showdown, as he will earn $250,000 if he runs for at least 66 rushing yards to reach 1,100 yards. Pollard will also receive an additional $250,000 if he runs for two scores, so there’s no doubt he will be motivated.

Jacksonville is clearly the better team, but this is too many points. The Jaguars won 25-3 in their previous meeting, but they were helped greatly by two Titans’ turnovers. Jacksonville finished that game with just 272 total yards, and I expect Tennessee to keep the final score more competitive in the rematch.

Baltimore Ravens -4 at Pittsburgh Steelers

It would have been great to only lay three points here, but the line has moved to Baltimore -4, and there’s no doubt that the Ravens are the better team. Pittsburgh won the first meeting between these fierce rivals 27-22 in Baltimore, yet the Steelers were somewhat fortunate in that tilt. They had just 17 carries for 34 yards as a team, and D.K. Metcalf made a lot of big plays. Metcalf caught seven passes for 148 yards, accounting for nearly half of Pittsburgh’s total yards. That allowed the Steelers to win even though they finished with over 100 fewer yards and nine fewer first downs than the Ravens.

Metcalf won’t be on the field this time as he is still serving a two-game suspension that could cost him dearly in the offseason. Pittsburgh’s offense was completely toothless without its primary receiving threat last week against Cleveland, as the Steelers had just 15 first downs and averaged a scant 3.9 YPA. That bodes poorly for their rematch with the Ravens in the Steel City.

Baltimore has been much better than its 8-8 record indicates this season. The Ravens have a better point differential than the Steelers, and they have played significantly better on defense after an awful start to the season on that side of the ball. 

Lamar Jackson hasn’t fared well against Pittsburgh in his career. Jackson has thrown nine touchdowns and 10 interceptions in nine games against the Steelers, but he will have a great option in Derrick Henry. The future Hall of Fame running back was incredible last week, keeping the Ravens’ postseason hopes alive in the process. Henry should have another big game in Week 18 as the Pittsburgh run defense hasn’t been good this season, leading Baltimore back to the playoffs for the fourth straight season.