NHL Best Bets Today: January 6 – Fade the Favorites
Summary
Tuesday’s NHL slate features two matchups where situational factors outweigh standings. The Dallas Stars, on a five-game losing streak, visit the Carolina Hurricanes, who face goaltending uncertainty with Frederik Andersen’s shaky form. Despite Carolina’s expected possession edge, Dallas’s high-powered offense is positioned to exploit weak netminding, making them a valuable underdog.
Meanwhile, the league-leading Colorado Avalanche visit the surging Tampa Bay Lightning. Colorado arrives tired and injured on a back-to-back, while Tampa is well-rested and riding a long win streak. With home ice and superior health, the Lightning hold a clear situational advantage over the depleted Avalanche.
Tuesday’s NHL slate gives us two matchups where the situational edge matters more than the standings. Dallas limps into Raleigh on a five-game skid but catches Carolina with goaltending questions. Colorado brings the league’s best record into Tampa but shows up banged up and tired against the hottest team in hockey. Two classic spot-based matchups. Two live underdogs at plus money. Let’s get to it.
Dallas Stars at Carolina Hurricanes
Two Central Division heavyweights collide in Raleigh, but neither team is rolling in with momentum. Dallas has dropped five straight while Carolina’s been frustratingly inconsistent. The difference-maker? Frederik Andersen is expected back in the net for the Hurricanes—and that’s not necessarily good news for the home team.
Best Bet – Dallas Stars Moneyline (+116)
Dallas at plus money is the move.
The Hurricanes will likely win the possession battle and the shot count—that’s what they do. But winning those categories doesn’t cash tickets if your goalie lets in soft ones at the wrong time. Andersen’s recent form has been shaky, and Dallas is specifically built to exploit goalie uncertainty. They don’t need 40 shots to score four goals. They need Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz, and Matt Duchene to get clean looks—and Jake Oettinger to give them the steady goaltending Carolina isn’t getting right now.
Dallas has lost five straight, but check the scores: 4-3, 4-3, 4-3. They’re not getting shut down. They’re generating offense and losing tight games because of one extra mistake or one fewer save. That’s a team ready to break through against a quality opponent, not a team spiraling into the abyss.
Player Props to Consider
Sebastian Aho Over Shots on Goal
Carolina’s offensive engine. When the Hurricanes are humming, Aho is everywhere—top minutes, power play quarterback, dangerous in transition. Dallas will absorb pressure and give up zone time, which means Aho should get plenty of opportunities to put pucks on net. This is a clean volume play against a team that doesn’t chase you around the ice.
Colorado Avalanche at Tampa Bay Lightning
Tampa gets the home barn, the extra rest, and a Colorado team that’s finally showing some cracks.
The Avalanche roll into Amalie Arena with the NHL’s best record, but they’re not rolling in clean. This is their third game in four nights, and they’re suddenly dealing with key injuries that hit them in all the wrong spots. Tampa, meanwhile, is white-hot—riding a long win streak and coming home after sweeping a road trip. The league’s best record meets the hottest team — but one’s healthy and rested, while the other’s banged up and starting to show cracks.
Best Bet – Tampa Bay Lightning Moneyline (+101)
Tampa is at home, rested, and playing its sharpest hockey of the season. Colorado is still dangerous—MacKinnon and Makar can flip any shift into a scoring chance—but they’re walking in short-handed and tired. Plus money on the home team with the healthier lineup and the situational edge? You don’t overthink that — especially when they’ve won seven straight.
Andrei Vasilevskiy has been rock solid, the Lightning’s depth scoring is clicking, and their power play can change the game in one two-minute stretch. The Avs will push, even without key pieces — but this has all the makings of a Lightning statement game.
Player Props to Consider
Nathan MacKinnon Over Shots on Goal
He’s averaging monster shot volume this season, and Colorado leans on him even harder in big matchups, especially when they’re chasing. Even if the Avs are short-handed, MacKinnon’s shot attempts don’t disappear. If anything, he becomes the entire offense. Tampa will give up chances, and MacKinnon will hunt them relentlessly.
Andrei Vasilevskiy Over Saves
This is a sneaky way to cash in on Colorado’s offensive style without betting them to win. The Avs fire pucks—even in losses, they generate volume. If Tampa wins this game, it’s likely a game where Colorado is pushing late, and Vasilevskiy is stacking saves to close it out. He’s been dialed in during this streak, and Colorado’s shot-heavy approach plays directly into this over.
