NFL WILD CARD WEEK BEST BETS

I’ll make my final picks against the spread, moneyline, and totals picks in this week’s Friday Afternoon Quarterback column, but it’s time to dig into some of our best individual bets in the upcoming Wild Card slate. 

SATURDAY

LOS ANGELES RAMS AT CAROLINA PANTHERS (+10.5, O/U: 46.5)

The Rams (12-5) stopped a two-game skid with a dominating 37-20 win over the Arizona Cardinals last week. Matthew Stafford solidified his MVP campaign and grabbed an NFC Offensive Player of the Week nod with a 25 40 for 259 yards, four touchdowns, and no interceptions performance. He was sacked once. Tyler Higbee, in his first game back, caught five passes for 91 yards and a TD. Puka Nacua had 10 receptions (which gave him the 2024 receptions title and made him a favorite for Offensive Player of the Year) for 76 yards and a score. He added a 24-yard rush. Colby Parkinson caught four passes for 36 yards and a touchdown. The defense picked off Jacoby Brissett once and sacked him six times. Carolina (8-9) won the NFC South in spite of losing 16-14 to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in their final game, thanks to tiebreakers and a win from the Atlanta Falcons over the New Orleans Saints. Bryce Young was 24 of 35 for 266 yards, two TDs, and a pick in the loss. Tetairoa McMillan likely secured the Offensive Rookie of the Year with four receptions for 85 yards. Jalen Coker and Tommy Tremble both caught touchdowns. The defense sacked Baker Mayfield once and intercepted him twice. 

BEST BETS: Stafford 265.3 passing yards/Nacua over 81.5 receiving yards, Both teams to score in the first quarter +140, total Rams touchdowns 3.5 +110, Total Panthers TDs over 1.5 -160

Stafford and Nacua have obviously been on a heater, which has made them the favorites for their respective postseason awards. Four touchdowns should be an easy mark for LA’s offense to hit. Los Angeles’ defense plays its best in the second and third quarters, which leads to early and garbage time scores for the other team, so both teams score in the first, and the Panthers getting into the end zone twice is the play. 

GREEN BAY PACKERS AT CHICAGO BEARS (+1, O/U: 45.5)

Green Bay (9-7-1) dropped its last four games, losing in the finale, 16-3, to the Minnesota Vikings. With both Jordan Love and Malik Willis held out due to injuries (maybe), Clayton Tune (who has since been cut) was 6 of 11 passing for 34 yards, no TDs, no picks, and was sacked four times. The defense sacked Max Brosmer twice. The Bears (11-6) suffered a bad loss to the Detroit Lions, who were just playing for spite, 19-16 in their season-ender. Caleb Williams was 20 of 33 for 212 yards, two touchdowns and a pick. He was sacked once. Colston Loveland caught 10 balls for 91 yards and a score. Jahde Walker had a TD grab. The defense sacked Jared Goff twice and intercepted him once. 

BEST BETS: Jordan Love & Caleb Williams to both throw 2+ TD passes +240, Longest TD under 37.5 yards, Over 5.5 touchdowns +130

Both these teams can score off play action, and like to push it in on the ground at the goal line. I like a 24-21 type game, which means six TDs and, in the playoffs, you’ve got to pass for it. Love and Williams should both notch at least two touchdowns.

SUNDAY

BUFFALO BILLS AT JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (+1, O/U: 52.5)

The Bills (12-5) took their turn beating the hapless New York Jets to wrap 2025 last week, 35-8. Mitchell Trubisky was 22 of 29 for 259 yards, four touchdowns, and no interceptions. Ray Davis rushed 21 times for 151 yards and caught a TD. Ty Johnson scored a TD on the ground and through the air. Gave Davis and Dawson Knox hauled in touchdowns. The defense sacked Brady Cook once. Jacksonville (13-4) secured the AFC South with a 41-7 drubbing over the Tennessee Titans. Trevor Lawrence was 22 of 30 for 255 yards, three TDs, and no picks. He was sacked twice. Bhayshul Tuten ran for a touchdown. Parker Washington caught five passes for 87 yards and a score. Brenton Strange and Quintin Morris caught TD passes. The defense intercepted Branden Allen once and sacked him once. 

BEST BETS: Josh Allen & Travis Etienne to score TDs +190, both teams to score in the first quarter +100, shortest TD in game under 1.5 yards -200

Allen and Etienne getting into the paint looks like an easy parlay to make. I do think, with the Bills’ defense, a Jags first quarter score is on the table and Buffalo answers before the first 156 minutes is off the clock. And, shortest TD? I think we all know Allen is plowing into the end zone from the one at least once.  

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-4.5, O/U: 44.5)

San Francisco (12-5) suffered a 13-3 loss to the Seattle Seahawks in what amounted to a battle for the NFC West title and the No. 1 seed. Brock Purdy was 19 of 27 for 127 yards, no touchdowns, and a pick in the loss. He was sacked three times. The defense sacked Sam Darnold twice. Philadelphia (11-6), with a chance to take the NFC’s No. 2 seed, decided to rest its starters and lost 24-17 to the Washington Commanders. Tanner McKee was 21 of 40 for 241 yards, one touchdown, and a pick. He was sacked three times. Tank Bigsby rushed 16 times for 75 yards and a score. Grant Calcaterra caught a TD pass. The defense picked off Josh Joshnon once. 

BEST BETS: Jalen Hurts & Christian McCaffrey score a TD +275, Both teams to score in the first quarter +130, Shortest TD under 1.5 yards -135

Even though the Niners were kept out of the paint last week, this is the playoffs, and McCaffrey will get his. Hurts will score on a tush push, and that will hit your shortest TD bet too. I can see this one 7-3 at the end of the first quarter, so both teams scoring is the bet.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-3.5, O/U: 46)

The Chargers (11-6) dropped their final game of the regular season resting their beat-up starters, 19-3 to the Denver Broncos. Trey Lance was 20 of 44 for 136 yards, no touchdowns, and an interception. He rushed nine times for 69 yards and was sacked four times. The defense sacked Bo Nix four times. New England (14-3) wrapped up their AFC East cake walk with a 38-10 beating of the Miami Dolphins. Drake Maye was 14 of 18 for 191 yards, one TD, and no interceptions. Rhamondre Stevenson rushed seven times for 131 yards and two scores. He also caught a touchdown pass. TreVeyon Henderson had 13 carries for 53 yards and two TDs.  The defense picked off Quinn Ewers once and sacked him four times. 

BEST BETS: Rhamondre Stevenson & Ladd McConkey TDs +600, Both teams to score in the first quarter +130, Longest TD 35.5 yards -115

The Chargers will make a game of it, and McConkey will likely be the beneficiary there. Stevenson feels like an anytime TD easy pick to me. Like the others, I like a 7-3 or 7-7 first quarter as both teams feel each other out, and Drake Maye has been one of the best deep passers in the league. I expect a quick strike in this one.

MONDAY

HOUSTON TEXANS AT PITTSBURGH STEELERS (+3, O/U: 39.5)

Houston (12-5) ended its regular season campaign winning nine straight, including a 38-30 shootout over the Indianapolis Colts last week. CJ Stroud was 14 of 23 for 169 yards, one touchdown, and no interceptions. He also rushed for a TD. Jayden Higgens caught a touchdown. The defense picked off Riley Leonard once and sacked him once. The Steelers (10-7) claimed the AFC North and John Harbaugh’s scalp with a 26-24 win over the Baltimore Ravens last Monday night. Aaron Rodgers was 31 of 47 for 294 yards, one TD, and no picks. He was sacked twice. Calvin Austin caught a touchdown, and Kenneth Gainwell and Connor Heyward ran for one apiece. The defense intercepted Lamar Jackson once and sacked him three times. 

BEST BETS: Pat Friermuth, DK Metcalf & Nico Collins all scoring TD +2800, Both teams score in the first quarter +170, Longest TD of the game over 32.5 yards -115

With Metcalf back in the lineup, I expect Rodgers to go to him early and for him to hit one. Fiermuth is the wild card, but TEs usually show up in the playoffs. Collins is Stroud’s best weapon, so he’s getting into the paint. Like before, I can see a 7-3 first quarter, and Metcalf or Collins will haul in a bomb. Especially Collins, after what Zay Flowers was able to do against the Steelers’ defense last week.

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