NHL Best Bets for January 13 – Bad Defense and Desperation

Tuesday night gives us two very different games—and a couple of sharp betting angles if you’re looking past the basics. In Columbus, a coaching shakeup meets two turnstile defenses in a matchup built for goals. 

In Winnipeg, it’s structure vs. urgency: a disciplined underdog facing a home team that’s pushing for traction. One game leans chaos, the other control—but both have value on paper. 

Let’s get into the Best Bets and Player Props for January 13th in the NHL.

Calgary Flames at Columbus Blue Jackets

Two teams sitting outside the playoff picture, both desperate to string wins together, and both with recent stretches where defense has been more of a suggestion than a strategy.

Columbus gets the first-game bump under new head coach Rick Bowness, which typically means higher energy, simpler systems, and a group trying to make an early impression. Calgary’s grinding through a road trip after snapping a losing streak in Pittsburgh, but their core problem hasn’t disappeared—they’ve been a mess away from home all season.

The Flames are 7-17 on the road. The Blue Jackets allow 3.38 goals per game. Neither team makes life easy on their goaltenders, and when two brutal defenses meet in a spot where emotions and urgency are running high, goals tend to follow.

Best Bet – Over 6 Goals (-125)

I’m playing the over because this matchup checks every “goals are coming” box, and the number gives us push protection at exactly six.

Both teams allow plenty of goals. Calgary gives up 2.96 per game, and Columbus sits at 3.38. That’s not elite defending—it’s two teams in a race to three goals, with the only question being whether the other side can keep pace. Columbus games have leaned loose all season, and this one fits the mold.

Calgary’s road struggles are the key variable here. The Flames have been significantly shakier away from home, and their defensive structure falls apart when they’re chasing games or trying to protect leads on the road. Columbus doesn’t need to dominate possession to score—they just need Calgary to make a few mistakes, and the Flames have been generous with those lately.

I expect the Blue Jackets to come out flying with new-coach energy, Calgary to answer with transition chances, and the game to open up as it develops—especially once the first goal or two hits. Most likely outcome? 4–3. Worst case, it lands 4–2 and we walk away with the push on the number.

New York Islanders at Winnipeg Jets

Winnipeg’s season has been a rollercoaster of extremes. An ugly 11-game losing streak had them buried and searching for answers, and now they’ve finally strung together back-to-back wins to show some signs of life. The building may even have some life because the Jets desperately need to keep stacking results to make this season feel salvageable.

New York rolls in as the steadier, more reliable team. Better record, tighter defensive structure, and they’re riding Ilya Sorokin—the kind of goalie who can silence a hostile crowd if you don’t bury your chances. The Islanders don’t blow teams out, but they suffocate you with structure and capitalize when you make mistakes.

Best Bet – New York Islanders Moneyline (+119)

This price doesn’t match the matchup. The Islanders are being treated like a road longshot when everything about this game says they’re very live to win.

Start with the season-long résumés. The Islanders are 25-15-5. The Jets are 17-22-5. That’s not a marginal difference—that’s a legitimate gap in quality and consistency. New York has been one of the league’s steadier defensive teams all season, allowing just 2.67 goals per game compared to Winnipeg’s 3.11. On the road, being the team that doesn’t give up free goals matters, especially when you’re facing a desperate opponent trying to force offense.

The goaltending edge tilts heavily toward New York. Sorokin has been outstanding this season.915 save percentage, 2.47 GAA, and four shutouts. He’s the exact type of goalie who can absorb a push from Winnipeg’s top line, keep the game tight, and steal one on the road. Winnipeg’s goaltending hasn’t been nearly as reliable, and in a game that’s likely decided by one or two goals, that gap becomes the difference.

Winnipeg’s two-game win streak is real, but let’s not overreact. They just crawled out of an 11-game losing skid, and until they prove they can sustain this for more than a few games, we’re not paying “favorite tax” on a fragile team. 

At +119, you’re getting paid to back the better team in a coin-flip game. I’ll take my chances on the better team at plus money.

Player Props to Consider

Kyle Connor Over Shots on Goal
Connor is Winnipeg’s volume shooter and the most likely Jet to generate offense even in a tight-checking game. He hunts shots from everywhere and doesn’t need sustained pressure to get his looks. If the Jets are chasing late, Connor will be firing.

Mathew Barzal Over Assists or Points
Barzal is the Islanders’ primary setup man. If New York scores two or three goals, there’s a strong chance Barzal is attached to at least one of them. He drives possession, creates entries, and finds his shooters. Solid bet in a game where the Islanders are live to win.