TOP 5 COLLEGE FOOTBALL QUARTERBACKS ENTERING THE 2026 NFL DRAFT
Summary
This year’s quarterback draft class is considered weak at the top. Several players, like Trinidad Chambliss and Joey Aguilar, may get late draft picks or undrafted free agent opportunities, while others, such as Diego Pavia, are seen as more likely to play in alternative leagues.
The top five prospects are ranked with John Mateer and Carson Beck projected as potential late-round picks or long-term backups. Ty Simpson is viewed as a Day Three selection. The highest-rated are Dante Moore and Fernando Mendoza, who are expected to be first-round picks. Mendoza is the clear favorite to be the first overall selection, likely by the Las Vegas Raiders.
There are going to be some names you don’t see on here, as pruning it down to five was tougher than you’d think, especially in what looks like a weak (at the top at least) quarterback class. But there are guys that I think will get drafted late and get a shot, I’m not mentioning here, specifically Trinidad Chambliss from Ole Miss and Joey Aguilar from Tennessee. Diego Pavia from Vanderbilt? Maybe he gets in a camp as an undrafted free agent, but if he’s playing professional football next year, it’s in the UFL or in Canada.
None of those guys has the earning power in the NFL that they do in the NCAA, which is why they’re fighting so hard to get extra years of eligibility. I’m not counting on it.
5. JOHN MATEER, OKLAHOMA
(6-1, 224 pounds)
Stats: 62.2 completion percentage, 2,885 yards, 14 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 431 rushing yards, eight rushing touchdowns
Mateer has a lot of skills that will make him a solid backup in the NFL for a long time. He’s not that big, but he’s mobile and has a decent arm. He comes from a solid system, and while it’s unlikely he’ll ever take the field to win a Super Bowl, there’s every chance he’ll get to come in and pull a Kenny Pickett, taking a few knees during a blowout victory.
4. CARSON BECK, MIAMI
(6-4, 220 pounds)
Stats: 73.3 completion percentage, 3,581 yards, 29 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 50 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns
Beck already made the best call of his life by skipping the NFL draft last season, entering the transfer portal, collecting a nice wad of cash and now he has the chance to show what he can do on the big stage in the College Football National Championship game. Beck was considered years ago as a potential first-round pick, but that ship has sailed. But showing up against a stout Indiana defense could easily land him a selection in the fourth and fifth rounds. And, hey, Brock Purdy is an NFL starter. He’s got the tools. Honestly, Kyle Shanahan and the San Francisco 49ers should look hard at drafting him late. What’s the worst that could happen?
3. TY SIMPSON, ALABAMA
(6-2, 208 pounds)
Stats: 64.5 completion percentage, 3,567 yards, 28 touchdowns, five interceptions, 93 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns
Odds to be picked No. 1 overall: +7500
The people that are seeing a potential first-round selection in Simpson have watched a different quarterback take the field for the Crimson Tide than I have. I see no big difference between him and Beck, Mateer, or even Joey Aguilar, who might be a better passer. I feel like Simpson is making a mistake coming out, and any general manager who turns in a card with his name on it in the upcoming draft could be looking for a job sooner rather than later. But I don’t think that will happen. This is a Shadeur Sanders situation building, and if he’s smart, he won’t show up to the draft in person. He might be sitting a while. He’s a Day Three pick.
2. DANTE MOORE, OREGON
(6-3, 208 pounds)
Stats: 71.8 completion percentage, 3,565 yards, 30 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 156 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns
Odds to be picked No. 1 overall: +300
Now we’re getting to the guys who will actually hear their names called on Day One of the NFL draft and early at that. While Moore has not officially declared for the NFL Draft as of this writing, I can’t see him turning down the chance to be an all but guaranteed Top 5 pick. Of course, that does mean he’ll likely end up a New York Jet, but that’s the dice every top quarterback rolls when entering the draft. The Jets are always picking high. Moore did nothing to catch the guy ranked ahead of him in their head-to-head match-up in the College Football Playoff semifinals, but he can still work his ass off at the NFL combine and during his pro day and maybe convince a team to jump the Jets and trade for him.
1. FERNANDO MENDOZA, INDIANA
(6-5, 225 pounds)
Stats: 73.0 completion percentage, 3,349 yards, 41 touchdowns, six interceptions, 284 rushing yards, six rushing touchdowns
Odds to be Drafted No. 1 Overall: -550
It feels as if Mendoza going to the Las Vegas Raiders at No. 1 is a foregone conclusion, and it should be. If Tom Brady wasn’t involved in that pick, you might worry they could talk themselves into denying everything they’ve seen with their eyes, that this kid is the best prospect to come out in the draft since Trevor Lawrence. Luckily for the Raiders, Mike Mayock is no longer involved in selecting player,s as they could end up with Diego Pavia here. As it is, Mendoza is the guy and should help whoever the new head coach is in Vegas keep his job for a while.Follow Adam Greene on Blue Sky @AdamGreene13, threads @adam.greene and Twitter @TheFirstMan
