NHL Best Bets for Friday, January 23: Defense Is Optional
Summary
Friday’s NHL games present two contrasting betting opportunities. The first, between Washington and Calgary, is expected to be low-scoring due to Calgary’s severe offensive struggles, making an under bet appealing.
The second game, featuring the Rangers and Sharks, is forecast to be a high-event matchup with porous defenses and unreliable goaltending. This creates a favorable environment for San Jose’s offense to score at least four goals. Additional prop bets focus on individual player performances in each contest.
Friday’s slate splits cleanly down the middle: one game begging for structure, another that looks like a late-night track meet.
In Washington, the Capitals host a Calgary team that’s been stuck in neutral offensively—scoring one goal or fewer in 16 games says plenty about their ceiling. That keeps the total in check, even with Washington’s own defensive issues.
Out West, Rangers-Sharks has all the ingredients for chaos: two shaky defenses, goalies who aren’t bailing anyone out, and offensive firepower on both sides that can light it up in bunches.
I’m playing the contrast—backing the under in a game where Calgary can’t score, and riding San Jose’s offense in a spot where both teams are likely to trade chances all night.
Quick Picks Card
NHL Best Bets for Thursday, January 23 – Odds via BetOnline (at time of writing)
- Best Bet: Capitals vs Flames Under 6 (-108)
- Best Bet: Sharks Team Total Over 3.5 (-110)
Props
- Prop: Dylan Strome Over Points
- Prop: Macklin Celebrini Shots Over
- Prop: Artemi Panarin Over 0.5 Points
Capitals vs Flames – Under 6 (-108)
Edge in one line: Calgary’s offense has been stuck in neutral for weeks, and even with Washington’s recent defensive lapses, this matchup doesn’t have the juice to clear six.
Why I’m on it:
- Calgary has scored one goal or fewer in 16 of its 50 games this season—it’s averaging 2.52 GF/G and just posted back-to-back one-goal outings.
- Washington holds the scoring edge (3.18 GF/G) and the better chance-quality metrics, but they’ve repeatedly jumped out early only to let teams hang around, keeping totals manageable.
- The goaltending matchup (Thompson vs Wolf, if confirmed) tilts toward the Caps, which caps Calgary’s ceiling even further.
- Under 6 gives push protection if this lands 4–2 or settles into a 2-2 grind, and it fits the expected game script: Caps edge in a tighter win, not a track meet.
Calgary just hasn’t proven they can generate offense consistently this season—even with Huberdeau expected back. With Coleman still out, they’re missing finishing, they can’t afford to lose.
What could burn us: This gets messy if Washington leans into special teams and repeats their “score early, then implode defensively” routine from recent games.
Prop Bets
Dylan Strome Over Points: Strome has been Washington’s most consistent producer over the last 10 games, especially with his power play role. He’s active enough on the man advantage and in transition to hit the scoresheet—even if it’s a tighter, low-scoring Caps win.
Rangers @ Sharks – Sharks Team Total Over 3.5 (-110)
Edge in one line: This looks like a mistake-filled, high-event game with both teams bleeding goals—and San Jose’s got enough firepower to hang a four-spot without needing to dominate.
Why I’m on it:
- Both defenses have been porous: Rangers allowing 3.12 GA/G, Sharks 3.51 GA/G—neither team has shown the defensive structure to keep this calm.
- The goaltending matchup doesn’t feature shutdown profiles (both sitting below .900 in recent stretches), which keeps the door open for scoring.
- San Jose’s offense can score in bunches, and they’ve been leaning on their goalie to clean up mistakes, meaning the scoring chances are there even when the process looks messy.
- You don’t need to pay the Sharks moneyline tax at -130 in a swingy spot—you just need them to get to four goals in a game that profiles to be high scoring.
The expected game script here is something like 4–3 Sharks, which hits the number cleanly without needing San Jose to blow the doors off the Shark tank.
What could burn us: If San Jose doesn’t bury their chances—which they’ll definitely get against this Rangers team—this could stall out at three.
Props Bets:
Macklin Celebrini Shots Over: Over his last 10, it’s simple: 47 shots and big minutes. Even when the points aren’t there, his shot volume continues—and in a chance-heavy game, Celebrini stays in the mix.
Artemi Panarin Over Points: Panarin has been producing and carries strong power-play involvement lately, which is exactly how the Rangers do their damage. In a game where New York’s offense most likely runs through special teams, he’s the cleanest correlation play.
