5 BEST BETS TO WIN THE COLLEGE FOOTBALL NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP IN 2026
Summary
Looking ahead to the 2026 college football season, the landscape is dominated by established powers with significant resources. Reigning champion Indiana, despite its recent success, loses key talent like quarterback Fernando Mendoza and is not favored to repeat. Miami, last season’s runner-up, also faces roster turnover but remains a threat due to its strong recruiting position in Florida.
The top contenders feature returning star quarterbacks. Ohio State has Julian Sayin, while Oregon brings back Donte Moore, considered the best returning quarterback. However, Texas, with Arch Manning leading a veteran roster that returns nearly intact, is the projected favorite to win the national title.
It’s never too early to look at next year’s slate of potential NCAA Football National Champions and go ahead and pop a few of your Nuka-Cola bottlecaps on a team that could be riding high come late January 2027.
If you had plopped a couple of bucks on Indiana this time last year, you could be picking out a Porsche today. Much to think about.
Do I feel we’ll have an out of nowhere team, or even teams if you count the Miami Hurricanes, duking it out on a lukewarm southern night in mid January next season? No, I do not. I do think the college football landscape has changed, but only in that there are new powers now, and considering the coaches, players, and NIL money involved, I don’t feel like they’re going anywhere.
First off, as usual, I have to handwave the clickbait here. You’ll see articles like this mention our national crybabies, Notre Dame, along with LSU and Alabama, but just get that out of your pretty little heads. Sure, they may all make a 16-team playoff, but none of those teams will sniff the national title. They will all three be one-and-done, especially if the selection committee doesn’t force in some Group of Six cannon fodder.
5. INDIANA
Last season: 16-0, College Football National Champion, defeating Miami 27-21
While Indiana might have won the National Title without many four and five-star recruits, they’ll be sending a handful of blue chippers to the NFL, including Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza, who has already been drafted by the Las Vegas Raiders at No. 1 overall. We just have to get to April to see them turn in the card. The losses in personnel for the Hoosiers will be significant as not only Mendoza, but Elijah Sarratt, Omar Cooper, Carter Smith, D’Angelo Ponds, and plenty of other key players and contributors will be on NFL rosters next season. Indiana will most certainly reload, and I’m a firm believer that Curt Cignetti has built this era’s Nick Saban at Alabama school, but I would not pick them to repeat today.
4. MIAMI
Last season: 13-3, National Champion runner-up, losing 27-21 to Indiana
Odds to win in 2026: +1600
Frankly, after the onslaught that the Canes unleashed in this year’s CFP, those odds look kind of insulting and, to me, downright delectable. Sure, like Indiana, they’re losing a lot of talent in the draft, like Reuben Bain, Jr. and Francis Mauigoa, but “The U” built this team quickly and can do it again with NIL transfers. Why do I put them ahead of Indiana in that regard? Because they’re in Florida and can literally build the best team in the country by robbing the other FBS and FCS teams in the state. Mario Cristobal, like Cignetti, has built a real power here and is a halfway decent quarterback away from being right back in the mix.
3. OHIO STATE
Last season: 12-2, lost to Miami, 24-14, in the CFP quarterfinals
Odds to win in 2026: +700
Speaking of quarterbacks, they are the reason the top three teams are in those spots on our list, beginning with OSU. Julian Sayin returns after taking a little bit of a dive at the end of the season. The Buckeyes will lose talent, like they always do, to the NFL, including maybe three of the selection meeting’s top five picks in Caleb Downs, Arvell Reese, and Carnell Tate. But Ohio State can just reload those skill positions with NIL and five-star recruits, as they seem to have their pick of whoever they want coming up. I’m not a big believer in Ryan Day and his humiliating Sharpie beard, but he won it once with a loaded, veteran-heavy roster. He might be able to do it again.
2. OREGON
Last season: 13-2, lost to Indiana, 56-22, in the CFP semifinals
Odds to win in 2026: +850
Donte Moore could have easily been a Top 5 NFL draft pick this coming April, in spite of a lackluster showing in the CFP semifinals. Such is the disaster of the New York Jets (and the money Phil Knight pumps into Oregon’s NIL) that Moore thought the grass looked much greener running it back with the Ducks and rolling the dice that someone other than the Gang Green will turn in his selection card next year. Dan Lanning has a young team and arguably the best quarterback returning in 2026. They’re losing a few key players, but outside of tight end Kenyon Sadiq, none of them look like they’ll go in the first round. That means the elite talent will be back, and Knight will make sure there are plenty of new toys in fresh Nike gear to play with, too.
1. TEXAS
Last season: 10-3, defeated Michigan, 41-27, in the Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Odds to win in 2026: +600
Hey, in this one, the odds and I agree. Yes, Dante Moore was a better quarterback this past year, overall, than Arch Manning, but call me an Arch truther. I just think this kid will make it work. The DNA and the toolset are there. The support system, the guys on his iPhone that he can reach out to and get coached up b,y is second to none. Like Oregon, the Longhorns won’t be losing any serious key talent. Everyone is coming back, and they’ll add even more before it’s over. I like Texas to win it all and a Longhorns vs Ducks CFP final before Indiana reloads completely and wins the next two straight.
Follow Adam Greene on Blue Sky @AdamGreene13, threads @adam.greene and Twitter @TheFirstMan
