5 BEST EARLY BETS FOR 2026-27 NFL MVP

The day before Seattle Seahawks crushed the New England Patriots 29-13 and ruined all the hopes of every Pats fan for a Dynasty 2.0, the Patriots got an early kick in the teeth when Drake Maye was passed over for the NFL’s Most Valuable Player Award for one Matthew Stafford, who only led the NFL in passing yards (4,707) and touchdown passes (46) while leading the NFL’s best offense and finishing with the second best record in the NFC against toughest schedule in the entire NFL. He was also named a first-team All-Pro.

Maye had a great season, no question, against the third-easiest schedule in the league, with a full 20 percent of his 31 touchdowns coming against the New York Jets. A team that Mitchell Trubisky lit up for four touchdowns with no picks in the final week of the season, playing with the Buffalo Bills’ backups.

Stafford deservedly won the MVP is what I’m saying, and the fact that it was close at all shows the old school “East Coast Bias” remains in NFL media, and that some people are just wrong and dumb, which is why Justin Herbert and Josh Allen got any first-place votes at all. These are people who should be stripped of their MVP votes. Stafford was, unquestionably, the MVP. But Maye, at the same time, was unquestionably the No. 2 guy. To have either man leapfrogged by Allen or Herbert this year was farcical. 

But we live in a crazy world, so you have to factor that in when looking way too early on putting a bet in on next season’s MVP. I will say that if you’d grabbed Stafford at this time last season, he would have paid you at +4500. Maye was sitting at +5200. So, there’s some cash to be made here. 

The problem with the early odds this year is that there is no potential for that kind of cash-in, as anyone in the +4000-+5500 range doesn’t feel realistic to me. The guys in there that catch your eye, a Jaxson Dart at +4000, are dealing with a new coach, a new offensive scheme (which you could say Drake Maye was last year), but he’s playing a significantly tougher schedule in New York. The cupcakes that Maye feasted on will not be there for Dart in 2026.

Daniel Jones is intriguing at +5500, but he’s coming off a torn right Achilles tendon suffered late in the season; he might miss more than a month of 2026. Maybe more. Even when he’s back, it’s unlikely he’ll slide right back into his pre-injury 2025 form. Not against the defenses he’ll face in his division alone. 

So those longshots are off the table. And, truthfully, this isn’t about the biggest possible payout. It’s about the best bet.

Which is also why Drake Maye +900 won’t be on the list. Maye is sitting at third in the odds at +900, but his playoff meltdown was historic. In spite of the Patriots making it to the Super Bowl, Maye had the worst Super Bowl run for a quarterback in NFL history. New England benefited from their own elite defense, a CJ Stroud QB meltdown of its own, and Bo Nix breaking his ankle the game before they played the Denver Broncos in the AFC title game. Maye will not be in the conversation in 2026, and the Patriots might not even make the playoffs.

What about Lamar Jackson +750? I’m not sure he didn’t hit the QB cliff this last season. I’m going to need to see a significant bounce back for him. The MVP is asking a lot after what we all saw in 2025.

5. CALEB WILLIAMS +1600, QB, Chicago Bears

2025: 11-6, 58.1 completion percentage, 3.942 passing yards, 27 touchdowns, seven interceptions, 388 rushing yards, three rushing touchdowns.

Williams had a breakout season in 2025 under first-year head coach Ben Johnson, and expectations are already high for a team that made it to the NFC’s Final Four and was an overtime interception away from the NFC Championship. Because of the hype, Williams will show up early on a lot of predictions and stay there if he plays as well as he did last season. The better the Bears do, and they should win the NFC North again, the better this bet will look as the season rolls on.

4. MATTHEW STAFFORD +1600, QB, Los Angeles Rams

2025: 12-5, 65.0 completion percentage, 4,707 passing yards, 46 touchdowns, eight interceptions

Stafford should have been the unanimous MVP this season, but some people are wrong and ridiculous, so instead, he just barely won it. And he did it while the other guy most of the voters picked, Drake Maye, was faceplanting, fumbling, and tossing picks all through the playoffs. One of the resounding opinions coming out of the Super Bowl was that the voters who picked Stafford got it right and the Maye voters should have been, rightly, embarrassed. This bodes well for Stafford to repeat, since if he can put up similar numbers in 2026-27, those Maye voters might just want to make up for their mistake. 

There are just three issues standing in the way of Stafford hoisting his second Most Valuable Player…

3. JUSTIN HERBERT +1100, OB, Los Angeles Chargers

2015: 11-5, 66.4 completion percentage, 3,727 passing yards, 26 touchdowns, 13 interceptions, 498 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns

While the MVP race this past season was coming down to Matthew Stafford vs Drake Maye, three whackjobs got it in their heads that Justin Herbert and Josh Allen needed some votes when no one else on Planet Earth thought they should. Herbert will apparently always be the golden boy to certain NFL writers, and that’s fine. What makes him third on this list is that if the Chargers can actually manage to produce this season, stay healthy, and win the AFC West, he could all but be a shoo-in for the award. They’re dying to give it to him so bad that they tried even in a year where it came off as a joke vote. 

2. PATRICK MAHOMES +1000, QB, Kansas City Chiefs

2025: 6-8, 62.7 completion percentage, 3,587 yards, 22 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 422 rushing yards, five rushing touchdowns

Mahomes already has two MVPs in the bank, and while 2025 was an off year for both Mahomes and the Chiefs, I don’t suspect they’ll do the same this season. He’s automatically in the conversation and, even coming off a torn ACL, should be healthy enough to put up a battle from the opening kickoff of the season. If Kansas City comes back hot, reclaims its AFC West throne, this is one you can put in the bank.

1. JOSH ALLEN +650

2025: 12-5, 69.3 completion percentage, 3,668 yards, 25 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 579 rushing yards, 14 rushing touchdowns

In a year where I would guess even Josh Allen didn’t think he belonged in the MVP conversation at the end, he still made it thanks to a couple of Einsteins who decided they were watching a different sport than the rest of us. Yes, if you want to argue that Allen is the MVP of his team and this 12-win Buffalo squad would be a 4-win group without him, anyone would concede that. But every team would nosedive without their starter, most of the time. The fact that Buffalo has done such a poor job of building a roster around his generational talent isn’t a reason to give him this award. That being said, there’s a reason he’s the favorite coming in, and if Joe Brady can put the Bills back atop the AFC East, and I think he will, Allen is the most likely choice to hold the hardware, as a couple of the other QBs on this list are preparing to play in the Super Bowl.

Follow Adam Greene on Blue Sky @AdamGreene13, threads @adam.greene and Twitter @TheFirstMan