NBA Daily Best Bets for Friday, Feb. 20
Summary
The Utah Jazz and Memphis Grizzlies face off with both teams struggling defensively. Despite high-scoring averages, recent trends suggest a lower total, making the Under 241.5 the recommended bet.
In other games, the Minnesota Timberwolves are favored by 11.5 points against the slumping Dallas Mavericks and are predicted to cover. The New Orleans Pelicans, at home against a Giannis-less Milwaukee Bucks, are a slight favorite with a -3.5 spread. Finally, the Los Angeles Lakers, rested after the break, are favored by 4.5 points over the rival Clippers, who are on a back-to-back.
Utah Jazz vs Memphis Grizzlies 7:00 p.m. EST
| Spread | ML | Total | |
| Jazz | +4.5 (-110) | +145 | O 241.5 (-110) |
| Grizzlies | -4.5 (-110) | -170 | U 241.5 (-110) |
Utah Jazz (18-38)
Utah is 3-7 in the last ten games and has lost 36 of 49 games as underdogs this season.
While they are dead last in defense (allowing 125.9) the Jazz can put up points, averaging 118.3 PPG, but over their last five games, they’ve only hit the 120-mark just once. Three players average 20 points for the Jazz (Markkahen, 26.7, George, 23.8, Jackson Jr., 22.3), and they have nine players who average double-digits this season.
Memphis Grizzlies (20-33)
The Grizzlies look to snap a 4 game losing streak as they return from the All-Star break. Memphis is 4.5 games behind the final play-in spot in the West and needs a bit of a run to be a serious contender. The Grizz remain near the bottom in scoring defense, allowing 117.5 PPG, ninth worst. Jaren Jackson Jr. leads the team, averaging 19.2 PPG and 5.8 rebounds. Injuries haven’t helped as Zach Edey and Ja Morant have missed significant time.
Recent Betting Trends
Utah is 33-23 on the OVER this season (59%).
Memphis 25-28 on the OVER (52.8%).
The Grizzlies are 10-15 ATS at home, fourth worst in the NBA.
The Jazz are 15-12 ATS as the road team.
Prediction
The Jazz the sixth-highest scoring team, averaging 118.3 PPG while allowing a league worst, 125.9 PPG. Memphis allows more than it scores (117.5 against, 115.3 for), so on paper, this looks like a ‘no-defense’ type of game. But Utah has gone over this total just once in its last five games while the Grizzlies in the last three games. BEST BET: UNDER 241.5
Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves 7:30 p.m. EST
| Spread | ML | Total | |
| Mavericks | +11.5 (-110) | +450 | O 235.5 (-110) |
| T-wolves | -11.5 (-110) | -600 | U 235.5 (-110) |
Dallas Mavericks (19-35)
The Mavericks are in an absolute tailspin losing nine straight games. The Mavs underwent a big trade, bringing in several new faces before the All-Star break. Dallas ranks 11th from the bottom in points against (117.4) and 22nd in scoring (113.9). While Cooper Flagg continues to improve as a rookie (20.4 PPG), the remainder of the lineup has struggled. Another note, Dallas hasn’t won a game when underdogs of +480 or more this season.
Minnesota Timberwolves (34-22)
Coming off his All-Star MVP performance, Anthony Edwards has led the Timervolves to two straight wins and is averaging 29.3 PPG, third best in the NBA. Minnesota has dominated against weaker competition this season going 4-0 when favored off odds of -649 or less. The Wolves are tough at home, 19-10, the third most victories on home-court.
Recent Betting Trends
Dallas is 7-16 ATS on the road, worst in the NBA.
The Timberwolves are 13-16 ATS at home this season.
The Mavs are 30-24 on the UNDER (55.6%).
Minnesota is 28-28 on the totals this season.
Prediction
Despite the big spread, all signs point to Minnesota in this one. The T-wolves are 2-0 vs Dallas this season and have won by at least 13 points in each game. Edwards hot hand continues as Minnesota cruises to the win and cover. BEST BET: Timberwolves -11.5
Milwaukee Bucks vs New Orleans Pelicans 8:00 p.m. EST
| Spread | ML | Total | |
| Bucks | +3.5 (-110) | +135 | O 223.5 (-110) |
| Pelicans | -3.5 (-110) | -160 | U 223.5 (-110) |
Milwaukee Bucks (23-30)
The Bucks have won two straight wins against OKC and the Magic and have gone 5-5 in the last ten. In Giannis Antetokounmpo’s absence, several young Bucks have taken advantage with production. Milwaukee sits 12th but just 1.5 games behind the final play-in spot. This is an important upcoming stretch, 7 games in 10 days with five vs. conference foes.
New Orleans Pelicans (15-41)
The Pelicans are the 3rd worst team in the NBA but have gone 5-5 in the last ten games.
They allow the fifth most points (120.4) while scoring 114.6 PPG. New Orleans’ nine home wins is tied for second-least in the league. Trey Murphy III is the lone bright spot leading the club in scoring averaging 22.1 PPG, 5.7 rebounds and 3.8 assists a game.
Recent Betting Trends
The Bucks are 32-21 on the UNDER (60.4%), No. 3 in the NBA.
The Pelicans are 30-25-1 ATS this season (54.6%).
Milwaukee is 13-16 ATS as the road team.
New Orleans is 17-11-1 ATS at home, third best record in the NBA.
Prediction
If there’s any spot for the Pelicans it may be here. The Bucks are without their star, and are relying on their depth players to keep them in games while New Orleans have played better in the last ten games and have beaten some tough teams (Spurs and T-wolves). BEST BET: Pelicans -3.5
Los Angeles Clippers vs Los Angeles Lakers 10:00 p.m. EST
| Spread | ML | Total | |
| Clippers | +4.5 (-110) | +145 | O224.5 (-110) |
| Lakers | -4.5 (-110) | -170 | U224.5 (-110) |
Prediction
The Los Angeles Lakers return to action after the break as they take on city-rivals, the Los Angeles Clippers. The Clippers are playing back-to-back games after facing Denver Thursday night and currently hold the 10th spot in the West. Luka Doncic leads the NBA in scoring (32.8) and sits third in assists (8.6) while LeBron James scored 28 in his last game, the most in 14 games for James. The Lakers have won 4 of their last six games before the All-Star break. The Clippers have won the last two meetings this season (112-104, 103-88). The Clippers are 2-7 in back-to-back games this season while the Lakers come off a long All-Star break. Take Luka and LeBron at home. BEST BET: Lakers -4.5
