The 10 Worst #1 Picks in NBA Draft History

The NBA is reportedly exploring ways to stop teams from deliberately tanking for the top pick. Honestly? Sometimes karma handles it. The No. 1 pick is supposed to change your franchise overnight. Sometimes they hit. Sometimes it’s a total disaster. 

This list is the complete whiffs — guys who got hurt, stalled out, or just didn’t have it at the NBA level. Even if you win the lottery, you can still lose the draft, and the following names prove just that.

#10 — Joe Smith | 1995, Golden State Warriors

Career Stats: 16 Seasons, 10.9 PPG, 6.4 TRB, 45.5% FG

Joe Smith is the “wait, was he really a bust?” entry — and that’s exactly why he belongs here. Sixteen years in the league, solid numbers, respectable career. But No. 1 overall picks aren’t selected to be solid. They’re selected to be franchise changers. Smith was never that. He bounced through eight teams, never made an All-Star Game, and never anchored a contender. 

What went wrong:  Smith looked the part, but the game never leveled up. He gave you steady points and decent boards, but nothing that scared defenses or tilted a franchise. For a No. 1 pick, “solid” isn’t the bar — you’re supposed to get a guy who changes the game.

Who they could have drafted instead: With the fifth pick that year, Minnesota grabbed Kevin Garnett — 21 seasons, 15 All-Star appearances, MVP, Defensive Player of the Year, a championship, and a Hall of Fame plaque. Joe Smith had a career. KG had a legacy — one that would later shape NBA futures odds and championship markets during Minnesota’s most competitive years.

#9 — Markelle Fultz | 2017, Philadelphia 76ers

Career Stats: 8 Seasons, 10.4 PPG, 4.4 AST, 28% 3P

The Sixers traded up to grab Markelle Fultz first overall. They surrendered future picks and took on financial risk because they were convinced they had their point guard of the future. And then, mid-season as a rookie, Fultz forgot how to shoot. Not metaphorically. The man lost his jump shot — one of the most bizarre and well-documented collapses in modern NBA history. He did eventually rebuild himself into a functional starting point guard in Orlando, which is why he’s only at #9 on the list.

What went wrong: Fultz showed up, and his jumper was just… gone. Call it injury, nerves, whatever — the mechanics were never the same early on, and Philly didn’t get the guy they traded up for.

Who they could have drafted instead: Jayson Tatum went third. He’s averaging 23.6 points over eight seasons with the Celtics, owns six All-Star nods, and has a championship ring. The gap between pick #1 and pick #3 in 2017 is one of the cruelest in NBA draft history.

#8 — Kent Benson | 1977, Milwaukee Bucks

Career Stats: 11 Seasons, 9.1 PPG, 5.7 TRB, 75% FT

Kent Benson was a solid college big man out of Indiana who the Bucks selected over a loaded 1977 class. He had a respectable career — 11 seasons, decent production, serviceable role. But “serviceable role” is not what you’re looking for at the top of the draft. He never developed into a star, never led a team anywhere meaningful, and the Bucks essentially drafted a career backup with their most valuable asset.

What went wrong: Benson was a quality college player who never converted that ceiling to the pro level. Limited athleticism and a crowded frontcourt position both worked against him.

Who they could have drafted instead: Walter Davis went fifth to Phoenix and became a six-time All-Star with 18.9 points per game over 15 seasons. Davis won Rookie of the Year, became a Hall of Famer in 2024, and spent most of his career torching teams while Benson quietly faded into the background.

#7 — Kwame Brown | 2001, Washington Wizards

Career Stats: 12 Seasons, 6.6 PPG, 5.5 TRB, 57% FT

The Michael Jordan factor looms over this entire story. Brown was 18 years old — straight out of high school — when Jordan, serving as Washington’s team president, made him the first high schooler ever taken No. 1 overall. The pressure was immense, the developmental support reportedly wasn’t, and what followed was one of the most publicly brutal careers in league history. 

What went wrong: Brown was super raw and got dropped into a pressure-cooker. The Wizards weren’t exactly a patient development factory, and the Jordan spotlight made every mistake louder. He carved out a real career, but he never came close to the #1 overall expectations.

Who they could have drafted instead: Pau Gasol went third. Rookie of the Year, six All-Star Games, two championships with the Lakers, and Hall of Fame in 2023. He averaged 17.0 points and 9.2 rebounds over 18 seasons. The Wizards picked a project and passed on a generational big man, ouch.

#6 — Pervis Ellison | 1989, Sacramento Kings

Career Stats: 11 Seasons, 9.5 PPG, 6.7 TRB, 51 FG%, 68.9 FT%

“Never Nervous” Pervis had the most tantalizing flash of any bust on this list. In 1992, he won the NBA’s Most Improved Player award and briefly looked like he was about to justify everything. Then his body betrayed him. Knee injuries derailed him repeatedly and he never recaptured that form. The fact that he had one legitimate All-Star-caliber season makes the rest of the career feel worse, not better — you knew what was in there, you just couldn’t keep it on the court.

What went wrong: Chronic knee problems that limited him to 408 games over what should have been his prime years. He was a talent; he just couldn’t stay healthy long enough to be a franchise player.

Who they could have drafted instead: Glen Rice went fourth that year and gave the league 15 seasons, 18.3 points per game, three All-Star appearances, and an NBA championship. Rice was everything Ellison was supposed to be: durable, productive, and a consistent winning piece.

#5 — Andrea Bargnani | 2006, Toronto Raptors

Career Stats: 10 Seasons, 14.3 PPG, 4.6 TRB, 82% FT

Bargnani’s bust status is subtle, which almost makes it worse. The numbers don’t look catastrophic on the surface. He averaged 14 points a game over a decent run in Toronto. But he was supposed to be a franchise-altering big man, and the “Il Mago” never conjured anything close to that. He didn’t rebound at a high level, he didn’t defend at a high level, and he never elevated the players around him. Toronto drafted a cornerstone and got a shooting big with limited impact on winning.

What went wrong: Bargnani could get you points, but that was basically the whole pitch. He didn’t rebound like a 7-footer, didn’t protect the rim, and wasn’t moving the needle defensively. As a No. 1 big, you’re supposed to be the backbone — he ended up more like a scoring piece you had to cover for.

Who they could have drafted instead: LaMarcus Aldridge went second and became the exact player Toronto needed — a seven-time All-Star who averaged 19.1 points and 8.1 boards over 1,076 games and anchored the Blazers for nearly a decade. Bargnani scored points. Aldridge was a building block.

#4 — Greg Oden | 2007, Portland Trail Blazers

Career Stats: 3 Seasons, 8 PPG, 6.2 TRB, 65.8% FT

Oden’s the definition of “could’ve been.” When he actually played, he looked like the real deal — huge body, good hands, and a legit paint deterrent. But microfracture surgery in his rookie year was just the beginning. He underwent multiple knee procedures and missed season after season, finally suiting up for his last real NBA game at 25. Portland didn’t draft a bust; they drafted a player whose body couldn’t hold up on the big stage.

What went wrong: One of the most severe injury histories in recent draft history. Oden’s knees simply couldn’t hold up to NBA minutes, and no amount of rehabilitation could change that structural reality.

Who they could have drafted instead: Kevin Durant went second. You know the rest: 27.2 points per game, 15 All-Star Games, two championships, two Finals MVPs, one MVP, and a first-ballot Hall of Fame lock. The Oden-Durant debate is the single most referenced “what if” in modern NBA draft history — and it’s not even close.

#3 — Michael Olowokandi | 1998, LA Clippers

Career Stats: 9 Seasons, 8.3 PPG, 6.8 TRB, 59% FT

The Clippers have a long history of draft misfortune, but Olowokandi might be the crown jewel. The “Kandi Man” was a project pick — he’d only been playing organized basketball for a few years before being selected first overall — and the results matched the risk. Nine seasons, limited production, and a career Win Shares total of 2.5. To put that in perspective, there are backup guards with 10-day contracts who’ve contributed more franchise value.

What went wrong: Olowokandi was raw athletically, and he never developed the skill set or basketball IQ needed to survive in the paint at a high level. He was a dart throw pick that missed the board entirely.

Who they could have drafted instead: This is where it gets painful. Vince Carter went fifth and played 22 seasons, made eight All-Star Games, won Rookie of the Year, and became a Hall of Famer in 2024. Oh, and a guy named Dirk Nowitzki went ninth that year (206.3 career Win Shares). Paul Pierce went tenth (150.0 Win Shares). The 1998 draft didn’t just expose Olowokandi — it buried him.

#2 — LaRue Martin | 1972, Portland Trail Blazers

Career Stats: 4 Seasons, 5.3 PPG, 4.6 TRB, 41 FG%

Before there was Bennett, there was LaRue Martin — one of the original templates for what a No. 1 overall pick total failure looks like. The Trail Blazers had their pick of the class and selected a center out of Loyola who washed out of the league in four seasons.

What went wrong: Martin was basically a big-man size bet that didn’t cash. The skill and athletic pop never showed up at an NBA level, so Portland got almost nothing out of the most valuable pick you can have. In hindsight, it wasn’t complicated — they just picked the wrong guy at No. 1.

Who they could have drafted instead: Bob McAdoo went No. 2 to Buffalo, and it didn’t take long for that to haunt the Blazers. McAdoo played 14 seasons, won MVP, took home Rookie of the Year, made five All-Star Games, won two championships, and was inducted into the Hall of Fame in 2000. The Trail Blazers passed on a Hall of Famer for a player who was out of the league before McAdoo turned 25.

#1 — Anthony Bennett | 2013, Cleveland Cavaliers

Career Stats: 4 Seasons, 4.4 PPG, 3.1 TRB, 67 FT%, 39.2 FG%

This one is genuinely hard to explain even now. Bennett wasn’t a project pick or an injury story — he simply never showed the ability to be a rotation-level NBA player, let alone a franchise cornerstone. He couldn’t hold a starting job. He couldn’t stick in the rotation. By Year 2, he’d been traded. By Year 3, he was bouncing between G League stints. No. 1 picks are supposed to anchor franchises for a decade. Bennett couldn’t hold an NBA roster spot for three full seasons. The expectation gap here isn’t just a crack — it’s the Grand Canyon.

What went wrong: Bennett showed up to his first training camp reportedly out of shape and struggled to keep up at NBA speed. He never found a consistent skill set or role that translated to the pros. The pick remains one of the most puzzling decisions in modern draft history.

Who they could have drafted instead: Victor Oladipo went second and spent 10 seasons in the league, averaging 16.9 points, earning two All-Star selections, and winning Most Improved Player. That’s a passable No. 1 pick outcome on its own. Now consider that the 2013 class also included Giannis Antetokounmpo, who went 15th. Cleveland had the first pick and wound up with the weakest return in the entire draft.

The #1 Pick Bust Pattern

Look at this list long enough, and a few themes keep appearing. Injury fragility at the top of the board (Oden, Ellison). Development environments that failed young players (Brown). Raw picks taken on potential that never materialized (Olowokandi, Martin). And occasionally, a selection that was just flat-out wrong from the jump (Bennett).

The broader lesson? Tanking for the No. 1 pick is a strategy, not a guarantee. The NBA may be looking to restructure the draft lottery to curb tanking, and when you look at this list, you can see both sides of the argument clearly. 

Yes, once-in-a-generation prospects like Victor Wembanyama and LeBron James can justify a full-season tank. But for every transcendent No. 1, a LaRue Martin or an Anthony Bennett is waiting to remind you that the top pick is still a gamble — and sometimes the house wins.