NHL Best Bets March 9: Two Unders Worth Trusting

Monday’s slate isn’t handing out any easy bets to pounce on, but two games project the same way — tight, controlled, and low-scoring.

The Rangers and Flyers are doing what Metro teams do: grind it out and make every goal feel earned. In Washington, the Capitals just want a simple win at home after a rough week, and Calgary’s offense hasn’t given anyone a reason to trust it on the road.

Two unders on the NHL Picks. Both plus or near-even on the price. Let’s get into it.

QUICK PICKS

1) Under 5.5 (+107) | Rangers vs. Flyers

This one has low-event game written all over it — and at plus-money, the Under doesn’t need much to get there.

Philadelphia has been living in tight games lately. They’re patient, they don’t trade chances willingly, and their recent results reflect it. A lot of 2-1s and 3-2s. That’s not a coincidence — that’s how they want to play for any chance at sneaking into the playoffs.

New York’s been losing, and the details matter. The penalty kill has slipped, and the structure hasn’t been there. Teams playing like that usually don’t flip the switch offensively on the road in a division game.

Key Notes:

• Rangers have been struggling, with a PP that’s just 2 for 12 in their last 5
• Head-to-head matchups between these teams tend to go either way, but both teams are desperate to find goals at the moment
• 4 of Philly’s last 5 games have gone to the under

The price is the other reason this works. +107 on an Under means the market is slightly undervaluing the low-scoring outcome. You’re getting paid above even money for what projects as the most likely final score range.

Flyers’ moneyline is also a decent alternative bet, but at -148 it’s a bit tough to stomach. Philly might win, but that’s “sure thing” pricing for a coin-flip game with home ice. The Under gives you the same game script at a better number.

Play: Under 5.5 (+107)

2) Under 6 (-120) | Flames vs. Capitals

Washington has dropped three straight, and they’re back home against a Calgary team on a long Eastern road swing. The Capitals don’t need a statement night — they need a simple one.

Calgary did put up five goals in their last game, but that’s been the outlier, not the trend. Most nights lately, they’ve been stuck in the zero-to-two goal range offensively, and a road game mid-swing against a team trying to get back on track isn’t the spot where you expect that to change.

Key Notes:

• Washington has lost three straight and is looking for a low-risk win at home
• Neither power play has been hot enough to force a high-scoring environment
• Projected script: Capitals 3, Flames 2 — with an empty-netter threat late

Washington’s cleanest path back to the win column runs through a controlled, lower-event defensive game. Post-deadline roster shuffling on both sides adds uncertainty — and uncertain teams don’t typically open things up on purpose. Fewer risks, fewer rushes, keep it simple.

The -120 price is the one thing worth acknowledging. You’re laying a little juice here, so you need the refs to cooperate. A few sloppy penalties or a Washington power-play waking up could push this toward six. That’s the risk. But the more likely script — a tight road game for a team that hasn’t been scoring — still points to the Under.

Moneyline on either side is a pass. Washington at -185 is too steep for a team mid-skid with recent roster changes. Calgary at +162 is a big number, but their offense isn’t consistent enough to back on the road right now.

Play: Under 6 (-120)