The American Express Golf Odds And 2026 PGA Preview, Picks And Props

The first PGA Tour event of the year in California tees off Thursday, Jan. 22, 2026 at The American Express. A total of 156 players tee it up in La Quinta including 8 of the top 13 and 11 of the world’s Top 25 players in the Official World Golf Rankings (OWGR) shooting for a first-place prize of $1.65 million from a purse of $9.2 million. The tournament returns to the Pro-Am format for the third straight year with three par 72 courses on the rotation offering very little rough but plenty of water to navigate on more than 30% of the holes. Golf betting odds, matchups, picks and information you can bet on are provided along with prop bets that are most popular when watching and wagering on golf. 

World No. 1 and reigning PGA Tour Player of the Year Scottie Scheffler makes his 2026 debut. He’s the prohibitive betting favorite, but his best finish in the event is 3rd across six starts in this volatile, low-scoring desert event. 

Golf Courses

• Pete Dye Stadium Course – 7,210 yards, Par 72 (2 rounds including Sunday)
• Jack Nicklaus Tournament Course – 7,147 yards, Par 72 
• La Quinta Country Club – 7,060 yards, Par 72

The average green sizes on the PGA Tour are approx. 6,000 square feet. All three courses in The American Express have Bermuda grass and greens, overseeded with Poa Annua. The Stadium Course greens average approx. 7,000 square feet, Tournament Course 5,500 square feet and Country Club 4,770 square feet. All three courses have four reachable par 5’s, and about 40% of the par 4 holes fall into the 350-450 yard range, making for many more birdie and eagle opportunities. Last year’s scoring average on the Pete Dye Stadium Course was 71.42 – toughest of the three courses and more difficult on Sunday.  

Three critical nuances of these courses and greens compared to a typical PGA Tour event include more accessible pin locations and slower green speeds (not as tough for amateurs), but also longer rounds of 5-6 hours. Sunday’s final round at the Stadium Course is setup with tighter, tucked pin locations and tougher scoring conditions. 

In the fall of 2024, the Pete Dye Stadium Course went through a meticulous restoration to recapture its original glory along with more intimidating grass-sided bunkering. The back nine is most challenging, highlighted by the iconic island green on hole #17 – aptly named “Alcatraz” – and the daunting, water-guarded 18th. Visually intimidating bunkers with grass siding 

Odds to Win 2026 The American Express

Leading favorites and contenders golf odds from BetOnline refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live/in-game betting. Odds adjust during and following rounds.World Top 25 noted (*).

• +325: Scottie Scheffler* 
• +2500: Ben Griffin*, Robert McIntyre*
• +2800: Russell Henley*, Ludvig Aberg*, Si Woo Kim
• +3300: Patrick Cantlay, Sam Burns*
• +4000: Matt Fitzpatrick*
• +4500: Harry Hall
• +5000: Sepp Straka*, Taylor Pendrith
• +5500: Kurt Kitayama, Daniel Berger, Ryan Gerard
• +6000: Alex Noren*, Michael Thorbjornsen
• +7000: Min Woo Lee, Rasmus Hojgaard
• +7000: Denny McCarthy, Rico Hoey
• +8000: Davis Thompson, Harris English*, Akshay Bhatia
• +8000: Rickie Fowler, J.T. Poston, Nick Taylor, P. Coody
• +9000: Adam Scott, Justin Rose*, Patrick Rodgers
• +10000: Day, Zalatoris, Greyserman, Mitchell
• +10000: McCarty, Smalley, Bezuidenhout
• +11000: Homa, Harman, Theegala, Kirk, Brennan

72-hole winning score: Over/Under 261.5 (Par 72)

Notable Players

These players finished top 15 in The American Express event last year, and return. 

• Straka (winner), Day, Cantlay, Griffin, Greyserman, Smalley, Zalatoris, Taylor, Poston

Winning scores over the past 6 years: -25, -29, -27, -23, -23, -26

Nick Dunlap (-29) won this event in 2024 as an amateur at 400/1 odds, and he’s 150/1 this year.

Tournament Matchups And Props

BetOnline offers an extensive range of 72-hole head-to-head player tournament matchups each week, along with select round-by-round matchups. Here are some of the tournament notable matchups and players to watch at The American Express. Odds listed are moneyline (- is favorite, + is underdog), and BetOnline also offers top finishing position odds (top 5, 10, 20), make or miss the cut odds and more. 

• Scheffler (-325) vs. Griffin (+265)
• MacIntyre (-115) vs. Henley (-105)
• Burns (-115) vs. Aberg (-105)
• Cantlay (-125) vs. Fitzpatrick (+105)
• Si Woo Kim (-150) vs. Straka (+125) – Bet Kim, see below
• Hall (-120) vs. Noren (+100)
• Pendrith (-129) vs. Thorbjornsen (+108)
• Kitayama (-125) vs. English (+105)
• Berger (-115) vs. Hojgaard (-105) 
• Rose (-110) vs. Fowler (-110)
• Thompson (-115) vs. Min Woo Lee (-105)
• Poston (-120) vs. Taylor (+100)
• Gerard (-153) vs. McCarthy (+127)
• Clark (-115) vs. Zalatoris (-105)
• McCarty (-127) vs. Greyserman (+106)

BetOnline also allows bettors to wager on matchups laying or taking 1.5 strokes. That’s what we’ll do with Si Woo Kim (-115) to finish at least 2 strokes better that Sepp Straka at reduced odds. 

How To Understand Golf Betting Statistics And Strokes Gained

Consistent contenders will excel in Approach play from 50-125 yards, but strokes gained (SG) data is not available on the Nicklaus Tournament Course or La Quinta CC. Birdies or better gained is another stat of interest as you research sites for the Pete Dye Stadium Course. 

The American Express Picks And Trends

Players to target in the outright win market and top 10 or 20 finish

• Ben Griffin (+2500 and +215 top 10)
• Si Woo Kim (+2800 and +275 top 10)
• Russell Henley (+2800 and +275 top 10)
• Sam Burns (+3300 and +275 top 10)
• Nick Taylor (+8000 and +6000 top 10)
• Triple-digit longshots Alex Smalley (+10000), Will Zalatoris (+10000), Brian Harman (+11000), Bud Cauley (+135000), Eric Cole (+20000)

Huge triple-digit longshots have won this event in four of the last six years. So it’s okay to take a flyer or more big longshots to finish top 10, 20 or 30 at better odds. 

Ben Griffin – Few rose faster and higher than 29-year-old Ben Griffin last year. He started 2025 ranked No. 68 in the world, and enters The American Express No. 8 following a top 20 finish in last week’s Sony Open. Griffin is the only player in the field with two top 10 finishes in this event the past two years. Much of that success is driven by his strong shorter approach play, and his gaudy +2.37 strokes gained Putting in six career rounds on the Stadium Course.

Si Woo Kim – A winner of this event in 2021 and two other top 11 finishes, the 30-year-old Globe Trotter and President’s Cup player finished the last fall strong including three top 5 finishes to qualify for the 2026 Masters. He’s on the rise again off a T11 last week at the Sony Open where his stats were top 3 in SG: Off-the-Tee, Approach and Tee-to-Green. Note that two of his four PGA Tour wins came on Pete Dye-designed courses and all four on Bermuda grass, with another runner-up playoff loss at Harbour Town (Dye). Kim thrives on shorter courses with his strong approach play and GIR, and he led the field in Greens in Regulation in his victory here in 2021. Only his sub-par putting is holding him back from top 25 ranking.    

Russell Henley – The best wedge player in the field behind Scheffler, the 36-year-old finished top 20 last week in Hawaii off a 3+ month layoff. From 50-125 yards, Henley is the best in this field on Approach since 2020 with consistent top 5 finishes in that statistic. But he’s not played in this event the last three years and performed poorly previously in this tournament. 

Sam Burns – Burns is one of the best putters on Tour, and one-putt percentages are high at the Stadium Course. The 29-year-old also ranks No. 1 in this field in SG: Approach since October, top 10 SG: Total, Putting and Tee-to-Green, top 15 SG: Off-the-Tee and Around-the-Green. Burns has been a steady presence in this event with three top 11 finishes the past five years, and he’s won four times on Tour on Bermudagrass; second-best in the field behind his very good friend, Scotty Scheffler.

Nick Taylor – The 37-year-old Canadian has won on Tour each of the last three years with three of his five wins on the West Coast Swing. He fired an opening round 62 as defending champ at last week’s Sony Open before falling off with an even-par round Sunday to finish T13. Still, his Approach play and Tee-to-Green game were very solid in windier conditions, and he’s offered at longer odds like others with Scheffler in the field despite finishing T12 in this event last year and sitting top 10 through 36 holes.

Alex Smalley – The big-hitting longshot who has actually excelled across Pete Dye courses ranking 3rd in this field over the past three years in SG: Total. Another 29-year-old who is in solid form with a pair of top 5 finishes in his last four starts and better putting on Poa Annua last year with positive strokes gained. His ball-striking was sub-par in last week’s Sony, perhaps the wind was an issue, but 

Brian Harman – The little lefty has excelled on shorter courses and positional tracks and has three top 10’s in this event including T3 in 2022. Solid play and results for the 39-year-old on Pete Dye-designed courses. 

Will Zalatoris – A strong ball striker looking to return to his best form from recent years, the 29-year-old finished T12 in this event last year and T6 in 2022.

Bud Cauley – A player to watch this year and get ahead of in the betting market, Bud Cauley is just years removed from a serious car accident 8 years ago that sidelined him for 3+ years. A supremely talented player prior and on his way back, the diminutive 35-year-old is a very solid iron player who contended several times last spring including on the Dye-designed TPC Sawgrass at The Players Championship. He finished T4 here in 2020 with a 65 Sunday on the Stadium Course and enters this week off a top 25 at the Sony Open with positive strokes gained across the board.

Eric Cole – Strong approach play and putting including good current form make this huge longshot from Palm Springs an overlay having made the cut in all three starts in this event with a best of T21 in 2024. 

The pre-tournament prediction model at Data Golf gives Scheffler a 21.1% probability to win, and 60.9% to finish top 10. Griffin, MacIntyre, SW Kim and Henley are all 2.4 to 3.7% win probability. Patrick Cantlay also has four top 10 finishes in this event in the last seven years including a pair of top 5’s. 

Bet on the Action

Golf continues to be one of the most popular sports to bet on. Beyond watching and wagering on the outright player to win a golf tournament, betting on golf provides other popular specific betting markets, especially during the four Major Championships and big Signature Events. Betting on a player’s finishing position (top 5, 10, 20), make or miss the cut, head-to-head tournament matchups, round leader and matchup markets and other prop bets allow bettors a golf bag full of options when wagering on golf. Bettors who strategize and are able to combine course fit with data-driven insights can more consistently outperform the market. A key strategy is to understand how each tournament or major championship tests different aspects of golf and match those demands with player skill sets.

The PGA Tour and leading online sportsbook BetOnline supports responsible gambling, and encourages people to bet responsibly and sensibly and seek help with any addictions or problem gambling.

BetOnline provides numerous opportunities for fans to wager on their favorite players, whether you’re betting on individual matchups, round-by-round action or live/in-game betting to stay more engaged and entertained. Get in on the action and place your bets today, and follow more PGA betting news throughout the 2026 season including Signature Events and Majors. 

You can bet on it.