Early Preview for 2026 World Cup Golden Boot:  Mbappé, Kane Lead Way

The draw is done as 42 of 48 teams have been placed into their respective groups as the 2026 FIFA World Cup is taking shape.  And while the tournament doesn’t kick off for another six months, it’s never too early to start looking into futures, including the Golden Boot award. There are several candidates who could end up scoring the most goals at this tournament, so let’s preview who the favorites are and which players could be sleeper picks.

The Favorites

Kylian Mbappé (France) +600

Kylian Mbappé is France’s most accomplished active player and became the national team’s captain after the 2022 World Cup. He won the Golden Boot at that tournament with eight goals, including a hat trick in the final, and played a key role in France’s 2018 World Cup title. 

At club level, he has won multiple Ligue 1 titles with Paris Saint-Germain, was named Ligue 1 Player of the Year several times, and completed a high-profile move to Real Madrid ahead of the 2024–25 season. He needs five goals to pass Miroslav Klose (16) for the most career World Cup goals.  

Harry Kane (England) +700

Harry Kane is England’s all-time leading scorer with 78 international goals, including six at the 2018 World Cup, earning him the Golden Boot.   He has won multiple Bundesliga scoring titles with Bayern Munich and previously won three Premier League Golden Boots with Tottenham Hotspur.  Kane scored 8 of England’s 22 goals during qualification. There’s no question he can score goals in bunches, and if England can go deep in this tournament, Kane will be near the top of the scoring race.

Lionel Messi (Argentina) +1200

At Qatar 2022, Lionel Messi came one goal short of tying for the Golden Boot as he finished with 7 goals en route to a title.  He is the oldest men’s player to score five goals at a World Cup, and the only player to score at the event in his teens, 20s and 30s.  Messi is four goals away from becoming the most decorated goal scorer at the World Cup.  And he did win the Golden Boot this past season in MLS with 29 goals in 28 games.  Yes, he’ll be 39 when the tournament is in the knockout stage, and with a favorable draw, Messi could score multiple goals against Jordan and Algeria before moving into the knockout stage.  The deeper Argentina goes, the better chance Messi captures his first Golden Boot at the World Cup.

Heir Apparents

Erling Haaland (Norway) +1400

Erling Haaland leads the golden generation for Norwegian football and is the best pure scorer on the planet. He has scored 100 goals in 107 games over four seasons with Manchester City.  And his goal rate for Norway is even better, 55 goals in 48 appearances, including 16 in just 8 qualifying games.  Norway will have at least two tough group games vs. France and Senegal but Haaland could feast against one of the FIFA playoff 2 teams (Iraq/Bolivia/Suriname). And if Norway gets through, he could be an interesting dark horse in 2026.

Lamine Yamal (Spain) +1600

The wunderkid of football is one of the most talented young stars who can score some dazzling goals.  He’ll turn 19 during the tournament and is already considered a player who could challenge for this award as a teen.  Spain is full of skill and goals will likely come from several players.  But if Yamal is the primary striker, it could be his coming-out party on the global stage.

Since making his debut at age 16, Yamal has 6 goals in 23 appearances.  Expect him to add to his total next summer.

Dark Horses

Darwin Núñez (Uruguay) +6600

Darwin Núñez has all the raw tools to explode in a World Cup setting, even if he enters the tournament far from the list of favorites. Uruguay is not expected to dominate the competition, but they should have enough talent to escape the group stage, giving Núñez multiple opportunities to find form. His pace, power, and relentless pressing create chaos in the box, and when he’s confident, he can score in bunches.  

Christian Pulisic (USA) +8000

Christian Pulisic is expected to be one of the biggest stars at this tournament and will try to lead the Americans deep into the draw.  Fortunately, the U.S. have a favorable draw meaning the captain could get on the scoreboard in group stage and the deeper they go, he may have a shot of contending. Since moving to AC Milan in Serie A – Pulisic has 28 goals in 78 games.

With the 2026 World Cup on home soil – this award could become a defining milestone in his career.

Rasmus Højlund (Denmark) +10000

Denmark hasn’t qualified yet, but if they do, Rasmus Højlund could be a surprise contender.  The Manchester United striker has already shown he can dominate in European qualifying, where he finished as one of the continent’s top scorers, 5 in five games.   Denmark typically creates high-quality chances through structured build-up and set pieces, both of which suit his strengths. If the Danes get through, he’ll have games against South Africa and Korea to score.  His chances of winning are slim, meaning his odds are very high.

World Cup 2026 Golden Boot Odds

Kylian Mbappé (France) +600

Harry Kane (England) +700

Lionel Messi (Argentina) +1200

Erling Haaland (Norway) +1400

Lamine Yamal (Spain) +1600

Ousmane Dembele (France) +2000

Cristiano Ronaldo (Portugal) +2000

Nick Woltemade (Germany) +2000

Vinicius Jr. (Brazil) +2500

Lautaro Martínez (Argentina) +2500

Bukayo Saka (England) +3300