AFC, Super Bowl Odds for NFC Teams and Ranking Their Chances
Summary
The AFC playoff field is exceptionally strong, with all seven teams winning at least ten games. The top-seeded Denver Broncos boast an elite defense and home-field advantage, while the Buffalo Bills, led by Josh Allen, see this as their best chance to reach the Super Bowl with Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson absent. Other contenders include the surprising New England Patriots, the hot Houston Texans with a dominant defense, and the streaking Jacksonville Jaguars.
Each team has clear strengths and weaknesses. Denver’s offense can be conservative, Buffalo’s run defense is vulnerable, and New England faces questions about its strength of schedule. Dark horses like Houston and Jacksonville could make deep runs if their offenses complement stellar defenses, setting the stage for a highly competitive postseason where any team could advance.
All seven AFC playoff teams won double-digit games, and five of them reached 12 wins.Â
While Denver is the top seed, can Josh Allen finally get over the hump without Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson in the way? Let’s dive in and break down every team as we head to Wild Card Weekend.
Denver Broncos (14-3)
The Broncos surprised many by winning the West, previously belonging to the Chiefs. But with a well-earned bye, Denver will remain at home throughout the playoffs, where they went 8-1 this season.
Strengths
The Denver Broncos’ main strength is their elite defense, particularly an outstanding pass rush and secondary. The Broncos were No. 2 in total yards (278.2) and No. 3 in scoring (18.3). Â
Weaknesses
The rushing offense has struggled with consistency since the injury to J.K. Dobbins, often failing to reach 100 yards per game, which puts more pressure on the passing game.
How far can they go?
While quarterback Bo Nix avoids turnovers and sacks, he has struggled with downfield passes and sometimes opts for conservative checkdowns. If he can make the right plays, the offense will get their points as long as the defense holds, the Broncos can get to at least the AFC title game.
AFC Odds: +225
Super Bowl Odds: +650
New England Patriots (14-3)
The Patriots shocked the NFL by going from last to first and finishing with a 14-3 record under first-year coach Mike Vrabel. Now, they look to do damage as the #2 seed in the AFC in a year without Mahomes and Lamar.Â
Strengths
MVP-candidate quarterback Drake Maye has arrived, passing for 4,394 yards and 31 TDs. The defense, rock solid, allowing 18.8 PPG, 4th best, while their ground game, 6th best, averaging 128.9 PPG.
Weaknesses
Maye has been excellent on first-read throws (5th in DVOA) but is 22nd when he goes to later reads. If defenses adjust, he could make the wrong decisions. Offensive line injuries, including to Will Campbell, could create problems for Maye. Â
How far can they go?
Many believe the Pats won’t get far because 12 wins have been against teams below .500 this season. A best-case scenario is the AFC title game, but don’t expect them to get there with an inexperienced playoff roster.
AFC Odds: +375
Super Bowl Odds: +950
Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4)
The Jaguars head into the playoffs as one of the hottest teams, winning eight straight games while clinching the AFC South.
Strengths
The Jaguars’ passing offense ranks among the best in the NFL since Week 10, following the acquisition of wide receiver Jakobi Meyers. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence is playing the best football of his career. Â The defense is a top 8 unit and has the second most interceptions with 22.
Weaknesses
The rushing attack has slowed considerably in the latter half of the season. The Jaguars are the third most penalized team in the NFL (7.5 a game), and if that continues, it’ll likely cost them a playoff win.
How far can they go?
The Jags are a slight underdog at home vs the Bills, who are one of the conference’s favorites. But if they can use home-field advantage, Jacksonville has a chance to get through in a shootout. A dark horse to reach the Super Bowl, but also likely a one-and-done against the Bills.
AFC Odds: +575
Super Bowl Odds: +1300
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)
The Steelers can thank Tyler Loop for the AFC North after the Ravens kicker missed the game-winning field goal to give Pittsburgh the division.
Strengths
The defense, anchored by players like Alex Highsmith, and with TJ Watt back, the opposing quarterback will have pressure on his way. Mike Tomlin has always been a great coach and brings his experience in these playoffs.Â
Weaknesses
While he is a Hall of Famer, there are passing limitations for 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers. The receiving corps showed its depth without DK Metcalf, while the offensive line still struggles to keep the pocket clean for Rodgers.
How far can they go?
Considering not many expected the Steelers to win the division, they could shock a team or two. But being a field goal underdog at home against the Texans, the bookmakers don’t like their chances to get out of the Wild Card Round.
AFC Odds: +1800
Super Bowl Odds: +4500
Houston Texans (12-5)
The Texans rolled into the postseason as the hottest team in the NFL, winning 9 straight, yet somehow didn’t win the division. Could they continue their run into the playoffs?
Strengths
They have the No. 2 scoring defense (17.4 points allowed per game) and No. 1 total defense (277.2 yards allowed per game) led by pass rushers Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter.
Kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn set a franchise record for field goals in a season, and with a defense like this, Fairbairn could be an important piece.
Weaknesses
The run game is 11th from the bottom (108.9 YPG), and the offense has struggled to capitalize on scoring chances, possessing one of the lowest red zone touchdown percentages in the league (45.1%, 30th in NFL).
How far can they go?
They say defenses win championships, and the Texans have an elite unit. If the offense can do enough, the Super Bowl isn’t out of the question for Houston.
AFC Odds: +475
Super Bowl Odds: +1200
Buffalo Bills (12-5)
Is this the year for the Bills with no Mahomes or Jackson in the way? Can Josh Allen finally reach the Super Bowl? Many feel this may be the Bills’ best chance to do so.
Strengths
The best running game in the NFL as James Cook (1,621 yards) )won the rushing title, and the Bills averaged 159.6 yards per game and 30 TDs on the ground. And Allen continues to be the difference maker with his receivers. The Bills are never out of any game with Allen.
Weaknesses
The run defense is the Bills’ most significant flaw, ranking 5th worst, allowing 136.2 yards per game, and ranks near the bottom, allowing 24 rushing TDs while giving up a league-worst 4.03 yards after contact per rush.
How far can they go?
As mentioned, this is the year the Bills have a real chance. It’s up to Allen and company to seize it as the AFC path is much easier for Buffalo than years past. The ceiling is reaching the Super Bowl.
AFC Odds: +460
Super Bowl Odds: +800
Los Angeles Chargers (11-6)
The Chargers are back in the playoffs and have a well-balanced team, and were 5-3 on the road this season. Any chance of reaching the Super Bowl means three road wins in some of the hardest places to earn a victory.
Strengths
The Chargers’ defense ranked in the top ten in all major categories (total yards, passing yards, rushing yards, scoring).  Justin Herbert is playing at a high level, and his deep-ball accuracy has been a major strength. Â
Weaknesses
The Chargers have one of the worst pass-blocking units in the NFL. The loss of both starting tackles to season-ending injuries is a major concern against elite playoff pass rushes.
How far can they go?
If the Chargers can get by New England, they would get Denver, a team they beat this season. L.A. could make a run if everything goes their way at Foxborough.
AFC Odds: +1100
Super Bowl Odds: +2800
