Best, Worst Case Draws for Canada at World Cup 2026

After a 36-year absence, Canada returned to the World Cup in 2022, where they were grouped with No. 2 Belgium, No. 12 Croatia and No. 22 Morocco.  The Canadians would lose all three games but now they’re hoping their first ever win at the tournament comes at home in 2026.  But that all depends on the draw, so let’s dive in and see what Canada could face in Toronto and Vancouver.

Draw Format:  

• The 48 teams will be divided into four pots of 12, with the hosts joining FIFA”s top-nine in seeded places for the tournament.

• Pots 2, 3, and 4: The teams are then sorted into the pots by ranking, with the six teams qualifying through the playoffs placed in Pot 4.

• The three hosts in Pot 1 have pre-determined groups. Mexico is in Group A, Canada in Group B, and the United States in Group D.

• With UEFA fielding 16 teams and only 12 different groups, it is inevitable that European teams will face off within the same group. But UEFA is the only confederation where that is possible. No other confederation will have more than a single member nation in the 12 groups.

Canada’s Best Case Scenario  –  Australia (26),  South Africa (61), Cape Verde (68)

Canada’s first game would be against Cape Verde, making their debut.  What’s interesting is they just missed out in 2022 and now are the third smallest country to make the World Cup.  Not much is expected, but we have seen a Cinderella run by an African side before.

South Africa went 5-2-3 in qualifying just barely to get the automatic spot.  But another opponent that will be beneficial for Canada.  In the only meeting, South Africa beat Canada in a friendly match back in 2007.

The toughest challenge would be against Australia, a formidable second-tier team that can prove to be tough. While Canada did lose at home to the Aussies in a friendly back in October, this group stage draw would be very favorable for the co-hosts.

Canada’s Worst Case Scenario  – Colombia (13), Norway (29), Italy (12)

This would be absolutely crushing for Canada – facing some of the world powers, making this truly the “Group of Death.”  But Canadian fans are hoping it doesn’t go this way.

Colombia finished third in qualification in South American going 7-4-7 and scored 28 goals, second to Argentina.  Recently Canada and Colombia played to a nil-nil draw.  Still, a very dangerous side.

Norway is led by Erling Haaland who scored 16 goals during qualification, most among all players.  The Norwegians have won 12 of the last 13 games and haven’t lost since October 2024.  

And if Italy gets through playoffs, and are grouped here, Canada would be in big trouble, facing two of the top 13 nations in the world. Surely this won’t happen, will it?   

Other Potential Threats 

With some luck, Canada could avoid some of the top-tier teams but if they don’t, here are some of the stiff challengers they could face.  Even though Egypt, Ghana and Sweden are ranked below Canada, they’ve all played on the largest stage in football.  There’s never an easy group but Canada is hoping their draw won’t be as difficult as it was in Qatar.

2026 World Cup Draw

POT 1