Bills vs. Falcons, Bears vs. Commanders Previews for MNF

Bills vs. Falcons

Betting Odds

Bills -4.5

Falcons +4.5

Moneyline: BUF (-225) BAL (+185)

Total: 49.5 

The Buffalo Bills (4–1) head to Atlanta to face a Falcons team (2–2) coming off their bye week. The Bills are looking to bounce back after a tough 23–20 loss to New England, where they allowed a late field goal to suffer their first loss of the season.   Atlanta, meanwhile, has fresh legs and will aim to lean into its strengths—namely, the ground game and solid defensive metrics.  

Falcons’ Offensive Identity & Strengths

• Head coach Raheem Morris has emphasized the run game, banking on the duo of Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier to control tempo and open play-action looks. 
• Atlanta ranks among the NFL’s top rushing teams (≈ 136.5 yards/game) but has struggled to consistently translate that into touchdowns. 
• With the Bills allowing 145.6 rushing yards per game (5th most) this season, the matchup is tantalizing for the Falcons’ run attack. 

If Atlanta can feed its backs and keep the chains moving, that can set up manageable down-and-distance situations for Michael Penix Jr. in the passing game. That said, Penix has been inconsistent and is turnover-prone, having thrown six interceptions in just nine career games.  The Falcons will need to protect the football and avoid negative plays in the passing game.

Buffalo’s Challenge & Adjustments

• Buffalo boasts one of the NFL’s most dangerous offensive leaders in Josh Allen, who has completed ~70% of his passes, thrown 9 TDs vs. 2 INTs, and added threat as a runner.  
• Their supporting cast is less explosive, especially in the receiving corps, but Allen’s dual threat ability remains a matchup headache.  
• Defensively, the Bills have been elite against the pass (top 5) but have been vulnerable against the run, ranking 30th in opponent yards per carry. 

 This is a red flag versus a team that wants to run the ball. To slow Atlanta, Buffalo must generate pressure on Penix, avoid mis-alignments in their secondary, and contain the ground game.  Also, Buffalo will likely look to force turnovers—Penix is a prime target for errant throws under pressure. 

Other Factors & Edges

• Home-field & momentum: This is Atlanta’s first Monday Night Home appearance in seven years, putting the franchise and fanbase in the spotlight. 
• Rest & prep: The Falcons benefit from the bye week, allowing extra prep and recovery time.
• Injuries / depth: Both squads carry some question marks. Buffalo has questionable status for players like Ed Oliver, Matt Milano, Dorian Williams.

Atlanta’s cornerback A.J. Terrell Jr. is expected to return from hamstring injury, bolstering their secondary. 

Prediction

This could be a game where both teams lean on the run game. James Cook and Josh Allen love to use their legs while Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier are lethal out of the Falcons backfield.  This means the clock will be running.  This could come down to a final possession and Falcons at +4.5 at home is too attractive to avoid.  BEST BET:  Atlanta +4.5 / UNDER 50.

Bears vs. Commanders

Betting Odds

Bears +4.5

Commanders -4.5

Moneyline: CHI (+185) WAS (-225)

Total: 49.5

This matchup carries extra juice, given last season’s dramatic ending: the Commanders beat the Bears on a tipped Hail Mary in the final seconds.  That play still lingers in Chicago’s narrative, and Monday’s primetime rematch will invite emotions, revenge angles, and fireworks. 

Trends & Strengths

Commanders

• They boast the league’s top rushing attack, averaging ~156.4 yards per game. 
• With RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt emerging as a reliable back, their run game has balance and burst. He’s averaged ~6.6 yards per carry in 2025.
• Deebo Samuel has become their go-to offensive weapon. With possible absences in the wide receiver room (Terry McLaurin is questionable) Samuel’s role grows even more crucial.
• Defensively, the Commanders have been middling. They are capable of getting pressure (they rank among top teams in sacks) but are vulnerable against the pass. 

Bears

• At quarterback, Caleb Williams is showing signs of growth. He’s thrown 8 TDs and just 2 INTs so far.
• The Bears’ passing offense is in the middle of the pack; their receiving corps (notably Rome Odunze) gives them upside. 
• Their defense, though, is a liability—especially against the run. Chicago gives up ~164.5 rushing yards per game (2nd worst in NFL) and struggles to contain physical, ground-oriented attacks. 
• Injuries are a concern. The Bears list cornerback Jaquan Brisker, defensive tackle Grady Jarrett, and left tackle Darnell Wright among their DNP (did not practice) players. 
• On the positive side, Kyler Gordon (CB) may return from hamstring injury, offering some reinforcement to a badly needed secondary boost. 
• Chicago also ranks very well in limiting third-down conversions (their defense is among the league’s best in that metric).  

What to Watch

• Run vs. run defense: If Washington can lean on their ground game and keep plays manageable, they will force Chicago to make plays in less favorable down-and-distance.
• Passing upside: Williams must avoid negative plays and turnovers. If he has time and comfort, Chicago can push tempo and force the Commanders into defense.
• Receiver health: The status of Terry McLaurin looms large. If he’s out (or limited), Washington leans even harder on Samuel and internal weapons. 
• Redemption for Stevenson: Bears CB Tyrique Stevenson plays in the same stadium where his tipped play ended Chicago’s night last season. He’ll be keen for a bounce-back performance. 

Prediction

Given the strengths, weaknesses, and narratives, I lean toward Washington winning, especially at home and with their ground game advantage. Chicago will fight, perhaps make this interesting in the 4th quarter, but Washington will take advantage of the Bears defensive and injury issues.  BEST BET:  Commanders -4.5 / OVER 49.5