Can’t Afford It? Bet it Then

Nov, 6

Summary

The text discusses current betting trends on high-value assets, noting a pattern where speculators are consistently betting that prices will exceed certain targets. NVIDIA, Amazon, and Bitcoin are all seeing “over” bets placed on their projected values. The focus then shifts to the upcoming auction of Maurizio Cattelan’s solid gold toilet at Sotheby’s in November 2025.

While the toilet’s gold content is valued at $10 million, the author suggests a more realistic estimate is $11.5 million. This is based on the artist’s history, such as selling a banana taped to a wall for over $6 million, and the significant media attention the piece will receive. The piece also wryly notes that wealthy bidders can be unpredictable, being both extravagant and surprisingly frugal.

So You Want a Solid Gold Toilet? Same. The trouble is, with gold prices (O/U $4K by the end of the year with us… I’d be going slightly under, but all the people far cleverer than me are taking the over).

It’s been a volatile year in the world of stocks and shares, but let’s update you on who wants what before you nod off — and then we can talk about the value of that solid gold toilet going to auction in November.

So, quickly: NVIDIA is going nuts (go figure). Our current price O/U is 200*, and bettors are taking the over. Amazon (O/U 300*) — bettors want the over there, too. Bitcoin (BTC) has a current O/U of 130,000… and, surprise, bettors also want the over. Current price? Around 110,000 (ish). Seeing a pattern here?

Anyway, as promised:

How much will Maurizio Cattelan’s solid gold toilet sell for at Sotheby’s New York on November 18th, 2025?

Let’s delve — dive, probe, dredge, explore, or jump into this (yes, I used Thesaurus.com).

When big auction houses value something, they tend — unlike what you’ve seen above — to go low, hoping to “shock the market.” So, this toilet is valued at $10M based on its gold content alone. But given the media attention and the fact that the artist once sold a banana taped to a wall (not kidding) for $6.2M… I think our valuation of $11.5M is a much more realistic bet.

Equally, people with too much money are often oblivious to actual monetary value — yet somehow still tight (just ask their housekeepers) — so maybe the under has some appeal.

I know very few things, but if I had endless money, I’d buy a solid gold toilet for… well, what would you pay?

Ed P A true multi-hyphenate, Ed Pownall has carved out a unique career at the intersection of comedy, media and degenerate gambling. Whether he's on stage delivering his brand of sharp, incisive stand-up or in the broadcaster's chair breaking down the day's racing odds, his intelligence and quick wit are always front and center.