COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEST EARLY BETS WEEK 10

By Adam Greene

PENN STATE AT No. 1 OHIO STATE (-20.5, O/U: 43)

Sometimes, for whatever reason, a head coaching change can give a team a boost. They’ll show up, excited about the new guy in charge and the fresh lease on life after a garbage coach is shoved out the nearest airlock. That has not been the case for Penn State (3-4, 0-4 Big Ten) who dismissed James Franklin two weeks ago. Ethan Grunkmeyer and Mark Gronowski of the Iowa Hawkeyes combined for what could be one the worst combined passing performances of the modern era outside of a service academy. Grunk was 15 of 28 for 93 yards, no touchdowns and two picks. Gron was 10 of 16 for 68 yards, no touchdowns and an interception. It was NCAA Division III level offensive football. The Buckeyes (7-0, 4-0) continue to be the best team in college football and have not scored less than 34 points in the last three weeks. 

I like the over here, if for no other reason that OSU will pile it on before the Academic All-Big Ten Players, FCA reps and Champions of Life take over in the second half.

Best Bets: Over 43

No. 9 VANDERBILT AT No. 20 TEXAS (-1, O/U: 44.5)

Vandy (7-1, 3-1 SEC) is on a tear this season and quarterback Diego Pavia is firmly in the Heisman Trophy conversation at +800 in spite of finishing 10 of 19 passing for 129 yards, no touchdowns and a pick last week in a grinding 17-10 win over then No. 15 Missouri. It was a surprisingly low-scoring game from two of the best offenses in the country this year. The Longhorns (6-2, 3-1) finally look like we expected them to out of the gate, beating Mississippi State in a shootout last Saturday, 45-38. Arch Manning had his best game of the season, going 29 of 46 for 346 yards, three touchdowns, one interception and he ran in for a TD. The defense didn’t show up and, against the Commodores, I’m not sure they will again. 

I like another shootout here.

Best Bets: Over 44.5

No. 2 INDIANA AT MARYLAND (+21.5, O/U: 50.5)

At this point, I think we’d all be disappointed to not see Indiana (8-0, 5-0 Big Ten) in the Big Ten Championship against OSU with a rematch in the College Football Playoff. You want to talk Heisman? Fernando Mendoza is leading the pack according to the odds at +300. The Hoosiers obliterated UCLA last week, 58-6 and have played two competitive games all season, a 30-20 win over then No. 3 Oregon and a 20-15 win over Iowa. Maryland (4-2, 1-3) has hit a rough patch, and while they can score some points, they can’t stop anybody. 

The spread is probably safe, but three-plus touchdowns this close to Halloween is far too scary for me. 

Best Bets: Over 50.5

No. 5 GEORGIA AT FLORIDA (+7.5, O/U: 50)

Speaking of spooky season, Florida (3-4, 2-2 SEC) has already put up the Spirit Halloween banner over their coaching offices. I’d be shocked if any of the guys currently prowling the Swamp’s sidelines will be retained next season after Billy Napier was fed to the local wildlife. Two weeks ago, they knocked off Mississippi State 23-21 and Napier was still trap doored into the shark tank, He’s been replaced by interim coach Billy Gonzales, who coached the wide receivers a fortnight ago. The Bulldogs (6-1, 4-1) had the week off too after surviving a 43-35 shootout with Ole Miss. Gunnar Stockton had an elite game, going 26 of 31 passing for 289 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions. 

Here’s the thing about the Gators. They play it close at home. In their three home losses, they’ve fell by two points (USF), seven points (Texas) and two points again (Miss. State). Georgia has been in close games themselves, with three wins by a single score. I think that’s happening again here. 

Best Bets: Florida +7.5, Under 50

SOUTH CAROLINA AT No. 7 OLE MISS (-12.5, O/U: 54.5)

Head coach Lane Kiffen spent the week basking in a cloud of his own farts after Ole Miss (7-1, 4-1 SEC) handed it to Oklahoma, 34-26. Trinadad Chambliss was 24 of 44 passing for 316 yards and a touchdown, with Winston Watkins catching four of his passes for 111 yards. The Gamecocks (3-5, 1-5) continue to obliterate LaNorris Sellers’ NFL Draft stock, losing their third straight, 29-22, to Alabama. But, hey, at least it was close. Not like Oklahoma the week before, where SC fell 26-7. Sellers at least remained a Day Two pick with his 18 of 32 performance for 222 yards, one TD and one pick. He led South Carolina on the ground with 67 yards and a touchdown.

I think the worst thing that can happen to the Gamecocks here is Kiffin feeling himself. He could very well be the best offensive mind in college football and this looks like a game where he’s primed to show off.

Best Bets: Over 54.5

PURDUE AT No. 21 MICHIGAN (-21. O/U: 50)

Purdue (2-6, 0-5 Big Ten) has been a sieve on defense during their six-game losing streak. Last week they fell to Rutgers. 27-24, a team that was coming off its own four-game losing streak. The Wolverines (6-2, 4-1) have stacked two solid wins together, including a 31-20 victory over Michigan State last week and they did it on the ground, with Justice Haynes rushing for 152 yards and two touchdowns and Jordan Marshall piling up 110 yards and a TD. Bryce Underwood didn’t do much with his arm, passing for 87 yards, but he ran the ball in the end zone once himself. Michigan might run for 400 yards Saturday.

Best Bets: Over 50

No. 8 GEORGIA TECH AT NC STATE (+5.5, O/U: 57.5)

The Yellowjackets (8-0, 5-0 ACC) have run roughshod through their schedule this season and are primed for a nice College Football playoff appearance as they may not lose again until their season finale against Georgia. Last week they knocked off Syracuse 41-16 and did it on the ground and in the air, rushing for 239 yards as a team and two touchdowns while Haynes King was 25 of 31 passing for 304 yards and three TDs. NC State (4-4, 1-3) has dropped two in a row, getting blown out by both Notre Dame and Pitt. 

This line looks like a gift to me.

Best Bets: Georgia Tech -5.5

No. 18 OKLAHOMA AT No. 14 TENNESSEE (-3, O/U:57)

Oklahoma (6-2, 2-2 SEC) comes into this one off a tough, close loss to Ole Miss, but what was demoralizing about it was the end. That score sat there for the last 2:55 of the game after a Rebs field goal and the Sooners had two possessions to cut into it, ran a total of 17 plays, and did absolutely nothing. The Vols (6-2, 3-2) blew out Kentucky, 56-34, a week after getting the same treatment from Alabama. 

This is pretty much a playoff game to earn a chance get into the College Football Playoff with two offenses that can score. 

Best Bets: Tennessee -3, Over 57 

No. 17 CINCINNATI AT No. 24 UTAH ( -8.5, O/U: 56.5)

We end with our regular Latter Day Saints late night spectacular. This time it’s Cincinnati (7-1, 5-0 Big 12) traveling to the Beehive State to take on Utah (6-2, 3-2). Scott Satterfield has the Bearcats in the national conversation again which usually means he’ll be leaving for bigger job this offseason. Cincy has won seven straight after an opening week loss to Nebraska. Last week they took out Baylor, 41-20. They did it with a punishing ground game, piling up 265 yards and three touchdowns amongst five ballcarriers. Brendan Sorsby did just enough passing, going 12 of 21 for 111 yards and two TDs. Utah gave Colorado the old Temple Garment treatment last week, shutting down Deion Sanders’ squad 53-7. Byrd Ficklin showed his Elder status to the Buffalos, throwing for 140 yards and two touchdowns while rushing 20 times for 151 yards and a score. Wayshawn Parker had 10 carries for 145 yards and a touchdown.

Unlike in the Utes’ dorms after the game, there’s going to be a lot of scoring in this one.

Best Bets: Over 56.5 

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