COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFFS BEST EARLY BETS WEEK 1

FRIDAY

No. 9 ALABAMA VS No. 8 OKLAHOMA (+1, O/U: 40.5)

Alabama (10-3) enters this game after a disappointing loss in the SEC Championship Game that should have surprised no one. Georgia annihilated the Crimson Tide 28-7 in a game that wasn’t as close as even that score would lead you to believe, as Bama managed their lone TD in the fourth quarter. Ty Simpson, who would be INSANE to listen to any draft prognosticators saying he’s a potential first-round pick, was 19 of 39 for 212 yards, one touchdown, and an interception in the loss. The Tide rushed for a total of -3 yards in the game. I’ve not seen that before in my life. Germie Bernard caught six passes for 62 yards and a TD.  The vaunted Alabama defense sacked Gunnar Stockton once. The Sooners (10-2) barely outlasted a suddenly ecstatic LSU team, 17-13, to end their regular season. John Mateer, who also should very much stay in school and collect all the NIL money he can before he Quin Ewers it in the NFL, was 23 of 38 for 318 yards, two TDs, and three picks in the win. He added 27 yards on the ground. Isiah Sategna III caught nine balls for 121 yards and a score. Dein Burks had four receptions for 61 yards and a touchdown.

BEST BETS: Oklahoma +1

When these two teams met last month, Oklahoma won 23-2,1, and I didn’t see anything in Bama’s pathetic showing in the SEC Championship game to help me see this one any differently. While the College Football Playoff committee remains enamored with the Crimson Tide in spite of their continuing faceplants in big games, I am not. The fact that the under here is so low is just more proof that the idea that either of these QBs are NFL-ready is a joke. Call this the JJ Simpson vs Shaduer Mateer Bowl for NFL scouts. 

SATURDAY

No. 10 MIAMI VS No. 7 TEXAS A&M (-3.5, O/U: 50.5)

The Hurricanes (10-2) ran through Pittsburgh a couple of weeks ago to wrap up their regular season, 38-7. Carson Beck was 23 of 29 for 267 yards, three touchdowns, and a pick in the win. Girard Pringle, Jr. rushed 10 times for 82 yards. Mark Fletcher, Jr. scored a TD. Malachi Toney caught 13 passes for 126 yards and a score. The defense picked off Mason Geintschel once and sacked him four times. Texas A&M (11-1) lost its shot at playing in the SEC Championship by falling to Texas, 27-17, in the final game of the season. Marcel Reed was 20 of 32 for 180 yards, no TDs, and two interceptions in the loss. He added 12 rushes and 71 yards on the ground. EJ Smith and KC Concepcion scored touchdowns. Concepcion added five receptions for 57 yards. The defense let the Longhorns run all over them to the tune of 218 yards, but did sack Arch Manning twice. 

BEST BETS: Texas A&M -3.5, Over 50.5

I don’t understand that total at all, as both these teams have put up solid points this year. The Aggies were one of the three best teams in the country all year and laid an egg on the final Saturday. I feel like they’re still one of the four best squads in the country, even if they don’t make it to the Final Four since they’d play Ohio State in Round 2.

No. 11 TULANE VS No. 6 OLE MISS (-17.5, O/U: 56.5)

The Green Wave (11-2) gets to celebrate its American Conference Championship for a whole two weeks before facing reality in the College Football Playoff after knocking off North Texas 34-21 a couple of weeks ago. Jake Retzlaff was 12 of 22 for 145 yards, no TDs, and no picks in the win. He did rush 15 times for 49 yards and two scores. Jamauri McClure had 22 carries for 121 yards and a touchdown. The defense picked off Drew Mestmaker three times and sacked him five times. Ole Miss (11-1) got its final win under Lane Kiffin, beating Mississippi State 38-19 before Lane hopped on a jet and skipped town. Trinidad Chambliss was 23 of 34 for 359 yards, four touchdowns, and no interceptions in the win. He added 26 yards on the ground. Kewan Lacy carried the ball 27 times for 143 yards and a score. Deuce Alexander caught two passes for 94 yards and a TD. The defense did not sack Kamario Taylor, but did intercept him once.

BEST BETS: Ole Miss -17.5, Over 56.5

Listen, we all know how this is going to go. You’d hope, for their sake, these Group of Six schools will make a better showing before they’re locked out of the College Football Playoff for good, but reality is a harsh mistress. Whatever coaching staff is left at Ole Miss is going to want to put in on the Green Wave, and all these guys like Chambliss, Lacy, and Alexander, who’ll be transferring to LSU the second their season wraps, will want to put up some solid tape against a significantly inferior opponent to drive up their NIL price. This one will be ugly enough to show up under my “Most Compatible” on Hinge. 

No. 12 JAMES MADISON VS No. 5 OREGON (-21, O/U: 49)

James Madison (12-1) gets to be the final G6 sacrificial lamb by defeating Troy, 31-14, in the Sun Belt Championship. Alonza Barnett III was 10 of 25 for 95 whole yards, one TD, and a pick in the win. He added 12 carries for 85 yards and a score. Wayne Knight, not the guy from Seinfeld, rushed 21 times for 212 yards and a touchdown. Braeden Wisloski caught a TD. The defense held the Trojans to -26 yards on the ground, which is the second time I’ve seen that in my life, and sacked Goose Crowder and Tucker Kilcrease eight times combined. The Ducks (11-1) closed out their regular season with a 26-14 win over Washington that sent the Huskies to the Buckle Up LA Bowl (but, hey, at least they won). Dante Moore was 20 of 29 passing for 289 yards, a touchdown, and no interceptions in the victory. He rushed for a TD as well. Noah Wittington had 17 carries for 47 yards. Malik Benson caught five passes for 102 yards and a TD. The defense sacked Demond Williams, Jr., four times and picked him off twice. 

BEST BETS: Oregon -21, Over 49

The point has already been made above, and the Ducks will want to hammer it home, if for no other reason than to ensure that they won’t be a Notre Dame, Vanderbilt, or BYU on the outside looking in next season. These games will be prison yard beat downs and the future, and probably expanded again, College Football Playoff, will be better for it.

Follow Adam Greene on Blue Sky @AdamGreene13, threads @adam.greene and Twitter @TheFirstMan