FRIDAY AFTERNOON QUARTERBACK: NFL DIVISIONAL ROUND

Well, it’s official. There’s no way humanly possible I can save my season against the spread. Just an outright horrible job by me. I would go so far as to say it was Brian Daboll-esque. So much promise, so little positive execution. 

In addition to that, while I’ve been solid with my moneyline picks, this is my worst year in about half a decade. I can’t remember the last time I hit triple-digit losses, but as of the Houston Texans’ faceplanting on the New England turf last week, I got defeat No. 100. 

What can I do about it now? I can shock the world and go on a run for the ages here to finish out the season. All that matters is these next couple of weeks. Eye of the tiger, people. 

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS AT DENVER BRONCOS (+4.5, O/U: 42.5)

The History: This is the 56^th meeting between these two teams, with the Broncos holding a 31-24 edge. It’s also the sixth time they’ve met up in the playoffs and the third time in the AFC Championship, the last one on Jan. 24, 2016, Payton Manning’s final year. Denver won that one 20-18. New England claimed victory the last time they faced off, winning 26-23 on Dec. 24, 2023, in a classic Bailey Zappe vs Russell Wilson quarterback duel. This will be the third meeting between Mike Vrabel and Sean Payton as head coaches. Payton is 2-1 in that head-to-head. Payton, obviously, was coaching the New Orleans Saints in those games and Vrabel the Tennessee Titans.

The Pick: Hey, it’s no secret that I’ve been an old school Patriots hater, but try as I might, I don’t have the same vitriol for Vrabel’s squad. I want them to bother me. I want to see every time they take the field as I did back in the Tom Brady and Bill Belichick days, but I don’t. They’re just another solid NFL team that’s fun to watch now, and, honestly, it depresses me. I lived on that fiery hatred for two decades. It kept me warm in the cold times. Of my five favorite Super Bowls I’ve ever watched, three of them are games the Brady-Belichick Patriots lost. And here I am. I like Mike Vrabel. I like Drake Maye. What’s wrong with me?

I warned all who would listen last week that Sean Payton would do something stupid to cost his team the game against the Buffalo Bills. It turns out, he didn’t do that. Instead, he did something stupid that could cost his team this game, the AFC Championship, against the New England Patriots, when he called a quarterback run, already in game-winning field goal range, that got Bo Nix’s ankle snapped. Classic Payton. This is why Kevin James played him in the movie. 

Still, I like Stidham. He’s one of the highest-paid backups in the league, and apparently, Denver rebuffed any trade offer for him in the offseason. Maye has struggled against the defenses he’s faced in the playoffs, and he’s had the advantage of playing at home. The Broncos have one of the best defensive units, and they are the home team on Sunday. Yes, they gave up 30 points to Josh Allen and the Bills last week, but that’s Josh Allen and the Bills. I think Denver gets it done at home. Broncos 20, Patriots 17

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP

LOS ANGELES RAMS AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-2.5, O/U: 47)

The History: We are about to enjoy the 58^th all-time meeting between the Rams and Seahawks, most of which have come since Seattle jumped out of the AFC West and into the NFC West back in 2002. The Seahawks lead the series 29-28 after winning their last matchup, 38-37 in overtime back on Dec. 18. This is the third time they’ve met up in the playoffs and Los Angeles/St. Louis won both contests, 27-20 back on Jan. 8, 2005, and 30-20 on Jan. 9, 2021. Both games were in Seattle. 

Mike McDonald and Sean McVay are 2-2 against each other and split their games this season and last season. Two of the four games have gone to overtime (they are each 1-1 in those games) and the largest margin of victory in either game is six points (the Rams on Nov. 3, 2024 after scoring a TD in OT) and the smallest is one point (Dec. 18, 2025 with the Seahawks converting a 2-point conversion after a touchdown in overtime). It’s been tight. 

The Pick: It feels as if this game was destined to happen. Though LA was the fifth seed in the playoffs, they actually finished (via strength of schedule and tie breaks) with the second-best record in the NFC. The Seahawks had the best and, as such, earned the NFC West title and the No. 1 seed. Seattle has boasted the best defense, maybe in the NFL, all season. The Rams have the best offense in the league. In spite of those two facts, the Rams won a defensive battle in their first matchup. The Seahawks won an offensive shootout in their second game in overtime. These are the two best teams in the NFC, and they’re playing for it all. I’m picking the Rams. They’re battle-tested and have the better quarterback, Matthew Stafford, who has won every MVP he could so far this season. I think he shows whyon Sunday. Rams 27, Seahawks 24

Last Week

Straight up: 2-2

Against the spread: 0-4

Season

Straight up: 179-100-1

Against the spread: 135-145

Follow Adam Greene on Blue Sky @AdamGreene13, threads @adam.greene and Twitter @TheFirstMan