FRIDAY AFTERNOON QUARTERBACK: NFL WEEK 13

With the holidays upon us, I’m tossing in my Thanksgiving Day picks in here too as I recapping these games in my tryptophan turkey coma will be nearly impossible on our National Day of Thanks.

Onward!

THANKSGIVING DAY

GREEN BAY PACKERS AT DETROIT LIONS (-3, O/U: 48)

The oracle that is the ESPN NFL Playoff Machine tells me that this game will determine who is currently in the NFC playoff field and who will be watching from the outside like one of those big-eyed Victorian street urchins. The Packers are getting a lot of love from what I can tell, especially after they handed Detroit their ample Dan Campbell-ian posteriors in Week 1. I had all but talked myself into going with the Lions until I looked at their recent history on Turkey Day, even under Mr. Campbell, and I was shocked to learn that they are 1-2 and that one victory was a three-point win over the Matt Eberflus Chicago Bears last season, 23-20. I think I’m piling on here, Packers 27, Lions 23 

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS AT DALLAS COWBOYS (+3, O/U: 52.5)

Look at how much last week’s results made this game significantly more interesting than it looked a month ago. Those NFL scriptwriters are earning their Emmys this season. Both of these squads are hovering outside their respective conferences’ playoff seeding, and both pretty much have to win out to get into the dance. The over/under here is 52, and that’s probably the number, in millions, of the people who will be watching. If there was ever a year to really piss off your uncle with a few camera pans to a cheering Taylor Swift, it’s this one. Chiefs 31, Cowboys 27

CINCINNATI BENGALS AT BALTIMORE RAVENS (-7, O/U: 51.5)

I did the math last week before the Bengals faced off with the New England Patriots and figured out that, if they won out, they would still make the playoffs. Then, Cincinnati decided to sit Joe Burrow again for a week and promptly lost by a touchdown. It’s that kind of decision that’ll put you in the bread line, Zac Taylor. Baltimore now controls the North, and winning here would probably all but clinch it. Ravens 24, Bengals 20

BLACK FRIDAY

CHICAGO BEARS AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -7, O/U: 44)

The Bears have not only put themselves into playoff contention but now control the NFC North thanks to feasting upon the cupcakes in their fourth-place schedule. Here comes the Eagles to screw it all up. I like Chicago and think there are plenty of reasons to get excited about what will likely be a playoff appearance and even quicker playoff exit. You’ll get a solid example of what that will look like while everyone is nursing their injuries from kung fu fighting over Nintendo Switch 2s on Friday night. Eagles 27, Bears 23

SUNDAY

HOUSTON TEXANS AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-4, O/U: 44)

The Colts had the chance to prove they deserve to be in the Super Bowl conversation last week, but couldn’t smother Kansas City with a pillow while they were on life support. Meanwhile, Houston has just sat up in its coffin like Undertaker at SummerSlam. CJ Stroud should play in this one too after getting a solid, Kyler Murray-like, rest. Texans 23, Colts 20

ARIZONA CARDINALS AT TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-2.5, O/U: 43)

Both these teams are on similar three-game losing streaks. The Bucs have dropped games against the Patriots, Buffalo Bills, and Los Angeles Rams. The Cards have faceplanted against the Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers, and Jacksonville Jaguars. If you’re keeping track of the current NFL standings, all six of those teams are currently in the playoff bracket. Tampa Bay is barely hanging on to the NFC South, and the Rams are likely to help them in Carolina, but it’d be good if Teddy “Two Gloves” Bridgewater could use some of that old high school state championship magic to secure this victory. Maybe order some DoorDash pregame just for the mojo. Buccaneers 23, Cardinals 20

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS AT TENNESSEE TITANS (+6.5, O/U: 41.5)

Speaking of the playoff machine, the Jags currently sit as the sixth seed in the AFC and a game behind the Colts in the AFC South, who I have picked to lose this week. Can Tennessee shock the Jags? I don’t see it happening and, frankly, the Titans need to lean into losing. No, they don’t need to secure that No. 1 overall pick to select a quarterback. Cam Ward is a rookie and has looked like it, but there’s no reason to toss him for Fernando Mendoza when another team will give them a king’s ransom for that selection come April. I’d put feelers out to Minnesota right now that two Nos. 1 and Justin Jefferson gets them the pick the second they want it. Jaguars 33, Titans 16

LOS ANGELES RAMS AT CAROLINA PANTHERS (+10.5, O/U: 44.5)

The Rams put a stamp on being the best team in the NFL pre-Thanksgiving with a dominating blowout win over the Bucs last Sunday night, but that means absolutely nothing over the next month and a half. Los Angeles’ grip on the NFC is weaker than your cousin’s homebrew he’s bringing to Thanksgiving. If Carolina looked any worse last Monday night they’d be sending me DMs on Instagram asking about my day, so LA should be fine here. But they need to get ahead early and go on cruise control. And maybe don’t play starters at the end of blowouts this time, Sean McVay. Just for my sanity, if nothing else. Rams 34, Panthers 13

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS AT MIAMI DOLPHINS (-6, O/U: 41.5)

Kellen Moore won the one game to justify his hiring in New Orleans and already added a spare. At this point, they should be openly taking a dive and praying that the Titans screw up and win a couple so that Mendoza’s jersey has a fleur-de-lis on it. Mike McDaniel not only looks like he’s saved his job, but he could also easily see his team win its next three games to even their record and get firmly into the playoff hunt in time for Krampus to come steal it away come Christmas. Dolphins 30, Saints 13 

ATLANTA FALCONS AT NEW YORK JETS (+2.5, O/U: 39.5)

As a Rams fan, I’m bummed that the Falcons seem to have pulled it together enough to move the pick they traded LA back in April out of the Top 10. And as they face off against the Jets, who might be the worst-coached team in the NFL, that draft selection will continue to move southward. Falcons 26, Jets 10

SAN FRANCISCO 49RS AT CLEVELAND BROWNS (+6, O/U: 36.5)

Brock Purdy’s second game back from injury was so ass that the game film had to file a restraining order against Kanye West. Kevin Stefanski’s stubborn refusal to play Shadeur Sanders was finally taken away by fate itself, freeing Dillon Gabriel so he can continue to Mordor to toss the Ring of Power into the fires of Mount Doom. The NFL sack record is 22.5 in a season, shared by Michael Strahan and TJ Watt. Myles Garrett has 18 sacks in 11 games in 2025. He could plant Purdy in the ground six times in this game to push this record to something no human could ever touch. And, honestly, don’t we all want to see it? 49ers 24, Browns 23

MINNESOTA VIKINGS AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-11.5, O/U: 41)

Rookie Max Brosmer gets the call for the Vikings here, replacing an injured JJ McCarthy and his alter ego “9,” who might have completed nine whole passes if he suited up and painted his face for this game. Some Minnesota rumblings are comparing Brosmer to Brock Purdy, but after the pick-fest Purdy delivered last week, I’m not sure that’s something you want to put into the world facing one of the best offenses in the NFL. Some people can call this a Sam Darnold revenge game, but Darnold already did all the damage he could do to the Vikings last year, losing badly to the Rams and Lions both times he faced them. Seahawks 38, Vikings 10

BUFFALLO BILLS AT PITTBSURGH STEELERS (+3.5, O/U: 45.5)

In spite of all my social media work, the Bills did not fire Sean McDermott before he even entered the locker room after a humiliating loss to the Texans last Thursday. We still don’t know, at this point, if Aaron Rodgers will get to play with his broken left wrist. Hopefully Ivermectin and some therapy from his imaginary wood spirit wife can get him up to speed before Sunday to make this one a little more interesting. Pittsburgh is playing for its season here and, looking at their schedule ahead, Buffalo might be too. Just a pathetic coaching display from McDermott. I’m picking Buffalo here, but nothing would shock me. Bills 23, Steelers 20

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS AT LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-9.5, O/U: 40.5)

Geno Smith apologized for holding up the number of wins the Raiders will be lucky to pick up for the rest of the season after getting solidly beaten down by the Browns last week. I’m not sure Pete Carroll’s seat is hot so much as it is being solidly warmed for its next occupant at this point. At 74 years old, Carroll is obviously no longer able to coach professional football at a high level. He needs to focus on doing what other men his age do… running for President of the United States. I predicted the Chargers would gargle it last week against the Jags and they were more than happy to do it. They’re at home here and Vegas is one of the four worst teams in the league. They should easily cover this spread unless they decide to Charger it again. Chargers 23, Raiders 13

DENVER BRONCOS AT WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (+5.5, O/U: 43.5)

Denver has a real shot at putting four whole quarters on film against a depleted Washington Commanders team already simming to the NFL Draft. If they don’t? Yikes. Broncos 27, Commanders 16

MONDAY

NEW YORK GIANTS AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-7.5, O/U: 45.5)

While the Broncos at Commanders on Sunday Night Football made all kinds of sense back in May when the NFL Schedule came out, this one never did. There was no universe where the Giants would have been anywhere near a prime time worthy squad, even if Malik Nabors and Cam Skatabo hadn’t both been carted off the field. Jaxson Dart might play here but I think I speak for all of the NFL, and especially for the Monday Night Football producers, when I say, give us dose of Jameis Winston under the lights. It’s the only shot the G-men have. With Dart; Patriots 31, Giants 13. With Winston; Patriots 27, Giants 26

Last Week

Straight up: 11-3

Against the spread: 8-6

Season

Straight up: 118-57-1

Against the spread: 83-93

Survivor Pool Picks: Broncos (Week 1), Ravens (Week 2), Bucs (Week 3), Bills (Week 4), Rams (Week 5) X, Colts (Week 6), Patriots (Week 7), Chiefs (Week 8), Chargers (Weel 9), Lions (Week 10), 49ers (Week 11), Packers (Week 12), Seahawks (Weel 13)

Follow Adam Greene on Blue Sky @AdamGreene13, threads @adam.greene and Twitter @TheFirstMan