FRIDAY AFTERNOON QUARTERBACK: NFL WEEK 15

By Adam Greene

With a chance to continue leading the NFC North on the line against one of the league’s bottom dwellers, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers decided they did not want to do that, falling 29-28 to the Atlanta Falcons in a game that really only accomplished messing up the Los Angeles Rams’ potential draft position, as they currently hold Atlanta’s 2026 first-round selection.

Kirk Cousins is having a solid little comeback season after getting called back into service. Against the Bucs, he was 30 of 44 passing for 373 yards, three touchdowns, and no picks. It’s not enough to land him another monster contract to fill his closet with more Target sales rack button-downs, but he’ll land on his feet somewhere next season with a chance to start. Maybe Indianapolis, Las Vegas, or Arizona. Bijan Robinson might have secured a fantasy football win for some of you, rushing for 93 yards and a score and catching eight passes for 82 yards. Kyle Pitts is also having his best season since his rookie year, making the most out of his fifth-year option before he flees the dirty south for New England or a Los Angeles team next year. 

Baker Mayfield is still playing hurt but managed a 19 of 34 day for 277 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception. Mike Evans hauled in six passes for 132 yards, and Chris Godwin caught his first touchdown of the season. With two games against the Carolina Panthers still on the schedule, the Bucs still very much control their own destiny, but the team that I watched Thursday night doesn’t look like it’s pulling any swords from stones this season.

ARIZONA CARDINALS AT HOUSTON TEXANS (-10, O/U: 42)

These two teams are on starkly different trajectories. The Texans are likely heading to an AFC Wild Card berth at worst. The Cardinals are aiming at a Top 5 pick, again, and a new coaching staff, again. And possibly a new quarterback, again. That means that CJ Stroud will have made the playoffs in all of his first three seasons, while Kyler Murray has set all new personal bests on Call of Duty Killstreaks. If history tells us anything, he’ll be disappointing Pittsburgh Steelers fans next year, leading another Mike Tomlin team to a 10-7 finish. Texans 31, Cardinals 20

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-11.5, O/U: 38.5)

I’ve said for weeks that I no longer trust the Eagles, and all they’ve done is prove me correct every chance they get. But even with that lack of faith, there’s no universe where the Raiders, of all teams, come into Philadelphia and pull off the upset. I’m a firm believer in the grace period after a team wins a Super Bowl, but Nick Sirianni better hope disgruntled Philly fans ONLY throw eggs at his house if they lose this one. Hopefully, he’s invested in a good power washer. Eagles 27, Raiders 13 

NEW YORK JETS AT JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (-13, O/U: 41.5)

I saw speculation that the Los Angeles Rams, if Matthew Stafford retires at the end of the season, will target Trevor Lawrence in a trade. Why would the Jags, who just now seem to have a competent coaching staff and team around their be-locked QB, want to trade him? Jacksonville is making the playoffs, and the last time Lawrence got in the tournament, he won a game over the Los Angeles Chargers and came close to knocking off the Kansas City Chiefs. No, the Jaguars have their quarterback, and Sean McVay’s sights have now settled firmly on the disgruntled signal-caller in Cincinnati. Jaguars 24, Jets 9

CLEVELAND BROWNS AT CHICAGO BEARS (-7.5, O/U: 39)

There’s little doubt that the Bears will win this game. The real contest will be Caleb Williams’ knack for holding onto the ball too long and Myles Garrett’s desire to turn a garbage season with Cleveland into a historic season for him. Garrett comes into this game with 20 sacks, three away from setting a new record that’s going to be his, barring something insane happening, by season’s end. The only question is, when will it happen? Ben Johnson is too smart not to unleash a heavy dose of his running backs right at Garrett in this one. Myles gets closer, but unless Caleb pulls a Brett Favre and hands it to him, he’ll be waiting at least one more week to set his name in stone. Bears 24, Browns 16

BUFFALO BILLS AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (pk, O/U: 49.5)

Did the Bills finding a way to win last week, facing a spunky Cincinnati Bengals team with future Rams quarterback Joe Burrow at the helm, make me trust them again? Nope. The fact is, if Buffalo is going to make any run this year, they have to be able to beat a team like the Pats. New England is an ascending team feasting on an easy schedule like Joey Chestnut downing a box of Little Debbies.  And that seems to be the real issue for me. With Buffalo this week and the Baltimore Ravens battling for their playoff lives next week, a truly great team would wrap up both problems in consecutive weeks. I think the Patriots are good. Not great. Buffalo, don’t let me down. Bills 33, Patriots 30

BALTIMORE RAVENS AT CINCINNATI BENGALS (+2.5, O/U: 51.5)

Joe Burrow and the Bengals started this Ravens slide two weeks ago, beating them easily in blowout fashion. I don’t see any reason to believe this game will be any different. I don’t think that Lamar Jackson has been body snatched, but I do think whatever injuries he’s dealing with have knocked him from the stratosphere to become a mere mortal, at least this season. For his sake, and Baltimore’s (as well as the NFL’s), let’s hope he’s back to superhuman next year. The league is more fun with a good Lamar Jackson. Bengals 27, Ravens 23

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-5.5, O/U: 41.5)

Justin Herbert was downright heroic on Monday night, gutting out a win over Philadelphia with one arm. In a fantasy storybook, this would propel the Chargers into a significant winning streak and they’d knock off the Chiefs for good, ending their playoff hopes at Arrowhead Sunday afternoon. I think this one will be more like a slasher movie, and LA is just too beat up to take out Jason Vorhees for good this time. Chiefs 24, Chargers 20

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS AT NEW YORK GIANTS (-2.5, O/U: 46.5)

Next season, we may see this game pop up on the schedule with some legit excitement as it becomes a regular two-a-season face-off between Jayden Daniels and Jaxson Dart. This year? It’s one Scott Hanson will apologize for while tossing to it, while every other 1 p.m. game is at halftime or showing a commercial. Giants 20, Commanders 17

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-14, O/U: 43)

Well, it turns out if you have 10 kids, you might need to collect an extra check or two at some point. Philip Rivers, seeing that Matthew Stafford of the Rams was about to pass him up in career yardage, decided to delay that for a few more games, signing at the age of 44 and a certified grandpa, to quarterback the Colts for the rest of the season, and, I got to tell you, Dadgummit I am all for it, dang it. Will it mean victory over the Seahawks? Oh no, don’t be ridiculous. He’s going to get eaten alive by their defense, but he will cuss them out like Yosemite Sam battling Bugs Bunny the whole time. God, I hope he’s mic-ed up. Seahawks 34, Colts 16

GREEN BAY PACKERS AT DENVER BRONCOS (+2, O/U: 42.5)

The Broncos have won 10 straight and, as part of it, have knocked off the Dallas Cowboys, Houston Texans, and Kansas City Chiefs, all teams that are currently alive for the playoffs. Houston, I would argue, is a legit Super Bowl contender. So why isn’t Denver continually called a fraud? Well, they can disprove that this week, at home, facing a Packers team coming off a bruising win over the Chicago Bears. If the Broncos are aiming at Santa Clara in February, this is a game they need to show they can win. Broncos 26, Packers 23

CAROLINA PANTHERS AT NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (+2.5, O/U: 40.5)

Carolina is now in complete command of the NFC North and has claimed two serious scalps along the way this season, with victories over the Rams and Packers. New Orleans keeps messing up its draft position by accidentally winning games, which probably means they’ve picked the right coach, even though they don’t have much else. The Panthers probably won’t win a playoff game, but just making it, after the mess they’ve been in, would be like seeing Kevin Sorbo accepting a Golden Globe for acting. Just unfathomable. It’s not an Oscar, but in any normal scenario, Sorbo wouldn’t even be allowed in the room unless he’s waiting tables. Anyway, get this done and give TV’s Hercules something to dream about, Panthers. Panthers 31, Saints 13

DETROIT LIONS AT LOS ANGELES RAMS (-6, O/U: 55)

This will be the fourth time the Jared Goff Lions have played the Matthew Stafford Rams, and the last two have come down to the final plays of the game. Incidentally, those last two were both Lions victories, and both happened in Detroit, one in the 2023-24 playoffs. Los Angeles can clinch a playoff spot and maybe further separate from the pack in the NFC in the quest for home-field advantage. The Lions are just trying to chew a kneecap and get back into the bracket, as they are currently the outside, looking in, like a Victorian child staring at a Christmas turkey. Rams 34, Lions 31

TENNESSEE TITANS AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-13, 55)

The Titans were in firm command of the No. 1 overall pick until they, in spite of their best efforts, won their second game of the season last week, soiling the Browns’ dude wipes thoroughly. Does that mean they’ll show up against the 49ers? That’s just crazy talk. Brock Purdy could toss five interceptions in this game, and he might, and San Francisco will still cover this spread. 49ers 31, Titans 16

MINNESOTA VIKINGS AT DALLAS COWBOYS (-5.5, O/U: 47.5)

JJ McCarthy had his best game as a professional quarterback in a blowout win over the Commanders a week ago and still just threw for 163 yards. I think Nine’s success, if you can call it that, had a lot more to do with Washington giving up on the season than it did with his sudden ability to play NFL-level football. Dallas will keep its playoff hopes alive for at least one more week. Cowboys 42, Vikings 19 

MONDAY

MIAMI DOLPHINS AT PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-3, O/U: 41)

Two months ago, I, along with everyone else, was sure Mike McDaniel would get fired at some point and maybe not even make it to the end of the season. Now, not only does he appear safe, but the Dolphins are fighting for a Wild Card spot. They won’t get it, but I promise you right now. If you asked any Steelers fan, whose team is heading for another AFC North title and playoff berth, if they’d trade coaches with Miami and skip the bracket this year, I guess that they’d jump at the chance. The NFL is ruled by chaos, and that’s what makes it fantastic. Steelers 24, Dolphins 20

Last Week

Straight up: 9-5

Against the spread: 9-5

Season

Straight up: 138-67-1

Against the spread: 101-105

Survivor Pool Picks: Broncos (Week 1), Ravens (Week 2), Bucs (Week 3), Bills (Week 4), Rams (Week 5) X, Colts (Week 6), Patriots (Week 7), Chiefs (Week 8), Chargers (Weel 9), Lions (Week 10), 49ers (Week 11), Packers (Week 12), Seahawks (Weel 13), Browns (Week 14), Texans (Week 15)

Follow Adam Greene on Blue Sky @AdamGreene13, threads @adam.greene and Twitter @TheFirstMan