March Madness Betting: First-Round Trends You Must Know
Summary
March Madness is defined by upsets, but historical trends can inform predictions. Top seeds are dominant but not invincible, with two #1 seeds having lost to #16 teams. Lower seeds also frequently surprise, especially #11 seeds against #6s, and #10 seeds often advance deep. While matchups like #8 vs. #9 are even, #7 seeds historically hold a strong advantage over #10s.
Despite the chaos, #1 seeds win the championship 65% of the time. Some teams, however, have never won a tournament game, while others like Gonzaga have perfect opening-round records. Ultimately, a perfect bracket is statistically impossible, with odds estimated at 1 in 9.2 quintillion.
Any bettor knows once March Madness tips off, expect the unexpected. Upsets, and buzzer-beaters are more common than you might think and typically busts brackets before Day 1 is even halfway through. Sure, anything can happen in any given game, but it’s important to know some trends before filling out your brackets, placing a bet, or picking your overall champion. Let’s break down the things you need to know.
Two Top Seeds Have Lost in Opening Round
For more than 30 years, the #1 seed, typically favored by nearly 20 points, won its first game with ease. But that all changed in 2018 when #16 UMBC shocked the nation beating #1 Virginia, the first time the top seed fell in the opening round. 5 years later, it happened again when #16 Fairleigh Dickinson stunned #1 Purdue, 63-58. Top seeds are now 154-2 (98.75%) against #16 seeds.
15 vs. 2, List of Second Seed Losses
It took 6 years after the field went to 64 in 1985 where we saw No. 15 pull off an upset on No, 2 when (15) Richmond beat (2) Syracuse, 73-69. Then in 1993, an upstart Santa Clara side with a guy named Steve Nash took down Arizona, 64-61. Since then, it’s happened nine more times with the latest coming in 2023 when (15) Princeton took down (2) Arizona, 59-55. No. 2 seeds hold an all-time opening-round record of 149–11, or about 93%.
First Four Form
In the first 13 seasons since the First Four was introduced into the tournament, in twelve of those tournaments, at least one First Four winner has been able to advance into the Round of 32. Two of those have gone all the way to the Final Four (VCU in 2011 and UCLA in 2021). But last year, no First Four winners made it past the opening round.
Lopsided #7 vs #10
While upsets are the norm at this tournament and many rank the 8-9 games and 7-10 games as coin flips. But history says otherwise in this matchup. The No. 7 seeds have a big edge on the No. 10 winning 94 of 156 games, about 60.3% rate. Since 2023, it’s only happened twice, as No. 10 Colorado defeated No. 7 Florida in 2024 and No. 10 Penn State beat No. 7 Texas A&M in 2023.
10 Seeds Do Well
When the #10 seeds get past the R64, they have fared quite well in the next round going 26-36, and usually that means facing the No. 2 seed. Last year, No. 10 Arkansas advanced to the Sweet 16 after upsetting #2 St. John’s while New Mexico would lose to Michigan State in the 2nd round.
Bangin’ Big Ten
Is the Big Ten the best conference at the tournament? Well, recent history makes a decent case. In 2024, the Big Ten went 4-2 in the first round, and 10-6 overall while in 2025, the conference went a perfect 8-0 in the opening round and covered the spread in every game. The eight wins were a new NCAA record for most wins without a loss in the first round.  But the last winner from the Big Ten, Michigan State in 2000.
Even Steven, #8 vs #9
This matchup, based on seeds, is 50/50 and the odds say exactly that. Since 1985, No. 9 seeds have won 78 while No.8 has 74 wins, which works out to about 48 to 52%. Here’s where it gets interesting though, the No. 8 seed wins 21% of the time in R32 going 16-60 while No. 9 is a dismal 8-72, just a 10% win-rate.
Eleven Heaven
The No. 11 seeds have a strong record for upsetting No. 6 seeds in the opening round going 61-101 since 1985, a 37.5% win rate. That is better than the 9 and 10 seeds. Since 2005, a #The 11 seed has won in every tournament including three upsets in 2024 (NC State defeated Texas Tech, Oregon defeated South Carolina, and Duquesne defeated BYU). NC State went all the way to the Final Four. And since 2011, No. 11 seeds are 27-29, nearly a coin flip, but were just 1-3 in 2025, Drake, the only #11 advancing into the second round.
Teams With Dismal Records
You’d figure big name schools who get to the dance will eventually win a game. But there are many who have been there multiple times, but still searching for their first win. Boise State (0–10), Iona (0–16), Eastern Kentucky (0–8), Nebraska (0–7) and South Dakota State (0–7).
On the flip side, Gonzaga has never lost in the opening round, a perfect 15-0.
Upsets Are Common
Upsets are guaranteed in this tournament but how many actually happen? Let’s look at the numbers. The average in the first round is about nearly five and just over 8 for the entire tournament, start to finish. The most upsets in the opening round was 8 in 2016 while the fewest was just one in 2000.
Top Seed Dawgs
No matter how many upsets occur, in the end, top seeds seem to find a way. Since 1985 when the tournament expanded, a No. 1 seed has won 26 of 40 (65%) championships. And have won 10 of the last 14 titles. Another stat when it comes to the No. 1 seeds, only twice (2008 and 2025) have all top seeds advanced to the Final Four.
Bracketology
You can use AI, ChatGPT, or input all the data and analytics into your computer but you won’t find the combination for a perfect bracket. It is impossible. Experts have calculated the numbers and the odds of hitting it are approximately 1 in 9.2 quintillion, which means NO CHANCE. And history agrees as there’s never been a verified perfect bracket in the tournament’s history.
