MLB Best Bets for Thursday, October 16, 2025
Summary
The Dodgers hold a commanding 2-0 series lead after stifling the Brewers’ offense, highlighted by Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s complete-game victory in Game 2. Milwaukee has managed only five total hits and appears completely overmatched. The series now shifts to Dodger Stadium for a Thursday afternoon Game 3.
Given the Brewers’ offensive struggles, betting analysis favors a low-scoring game. Recommendations include betting the total under 7.5 runs, as Tyler Glasnow’s pitching arsenal should dominate Milwaukee’s one-swing approach. Other suggested bets are the Brewers’ team total under 3.5 runs and Glasnow recording over 6.5 strikeouts, capitalizing on the Brewers’ poor plate discipline. Until Milwaukee proves otherwise, the strategy is to fade their offense entirely.
The Dodgers head home with a commanding 2-0 lead after completely suffocating Milwaukee’s offense at American Family Field. Yoshinobu Yamamoto threw a three-hit complete game in Game 2—the first postseason complete game in eight years—while the Dodgers cruised to a 5-1 victory behind solo homers from Teoscar Hernández and Max Muncy.
The Brewers have managed just five hits through two games and look completely lost at the plate. Now the series shifts to Dodger Stadium for Game 3 on Thursday afternoon. And while the daytime start adds a bit of offensive upside, the overall conditions still favor a tight, pitcher-driven game.
Quick Hits: Best Bets for Brewers @ Dodgers Game 3
| Bet | Line | Why |
| Under 7.5 | -105 | Glasnow’s K stuff + cold MIL bats |
| Brewers TT Under 3.5 | -145 | 5 hits in 2 games; one-swing offense vs Glasnow’s ride/slider |
| Glasnow Over 6.5 Ks | +114 | Brewers chasing swings; Glasnow allowed length |
Brewers at Dodgers Game 3: Bet Breakdown
1) Full Game Under 7.5 (-105)
Edge in one line:
Daytime adds a tick of carry, but Glasnow’s arsenal against a frozen Milwaukee lineup plus the Brewers’ bullpen chain still points toward a 3-2 or 4-2 game.
Full Breakdown:
The 3:00 PM local start does change things slightly. Daytime Dodger Stadium plays firmer than night—less marine layer, a touch more carry—which bumps the run environment by about 0.2 to 0.3 runs. That’s real, but it’s not enough to flip the script on this game.
Tyler Glasnow’s high-ride heater and power slider are still going to dominate a Brewers offense that’s posted five hits in two games and looks completely overmatched. Milwaukee is hunting one swing at a time, and even with slightly better conditions for the ball to carry, they’ve shown zero ability to stack quality at-bats or manufacture traffic. If they’re not drawing walks, they’re not scoring runs.
On the flip side, the Brewers aren’t letting Quinn Priester see trouble twice. They’ll quick-hook him at the first sign of damage and roll out their bullpen chain—Megill, Misiorowski, Uribe—to choke off crooked numbers. That depth can keep the Dodgers in the 3-4 run range even if they’re getting better swings in the daylight.
2) Brewers Team Total Under 3.5 (-145)
Edge in one line:
Five hits in two games, one-swing reliant offense—stacking runs against Glasnow plus a fresh Dodgers bullpen is a tall task.
Full Rationale:
Milwaukee’s offense is lost right now, swinging for the fences one pitch at a time. That’s a recipe for disaster against Glasnow, whose rising fastball and sweeping slider eat up right-handed hitters who chase.
Glasnow will attack the zone with confidence, knowing this lineup can’t string together quality at-bats right now. Even if Milwaukee manages a solo shot in better ball-carrying conditions, clearing four runs feels like a massive stretch. Behind Glasnow, the Dodgers’ bullpen is fresh and elite, ready to slam the door if Milwaukee somehow manufactures traffic late.
At -145, you’re laying juice, but you’re betting on a team that’s been completely overmatched through two games and now faces one of the nastiest arsenals in baseball.
3) Tyler Glasnow Over 6.5 Ks (+114)
Edge in one line:
Glasnow should rack up 7-8 punchouts if he’s allowed length.
Full Rationale:
Glasnow’s strikeout arsenal is built for this exact matchup. His fastball generates whiffs up in the zone, and his power slider finishes hitters off down and away. The Brewers have shown zero plate discipline through two games, chasing pitches out of the zone and swinging through quality stuff.
Assuming Glasnow gets through six-plus innings—and yeah, that’s a big if—he’s got a real shot at clearing 7+ strikeouts. Milwaukee’s approach plays right into his strengths, and the Dodgers will let him work deep if he’s cruising. At +114, you’re getting plus-money on a prop that should be closer to -120. It’s a light play—innings risk keeps this one in sprinkle territory.
The Bottom Line: Fade Milwaukee Until They Prove Otherwise
The theme of this series is crystal clear: the Brewers can’t hit, and nothing about Game 3 suggests that’s about to change. Five hits in two games isn’t a cold streak—it’s a systematic dismantling by elite pitching.
Until Milwaukee shows they can stack quality at-bats, manufacture traffic, or adjust to high-end stuff, the play is to fade them at every turn. Glasnow’s arsenal is perfectly built to continue this suffocation, and the Dodgers’ bullpen behind him ensures there’s no late escape hatch. The burden of proof is on Milwaukee to show us something different.
