NBA MVP Race Already Heating Up Between Jokic, SGA, Giannis & Luka
Summary
One month into the season, the race for league MVP is intensifying. The leading contenders are Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who continues his historic play for the dominant Thunder; Nikola Jokić, a three-time winner again averaging a triple-double for the Nuggets; and Luka Doncic, the league’s scoring leader who has taken over as the primary force for the Lakers.
Several longshots remain in the conversation, including Giannis Antetokounmpo, Tyrese Maxey, and Cade Cunningham, whose stellar play has propelled the Pistons. While Jokić appears to be the safest pick for a fourth award, Doncic offers compelling value given his current production and the Lakers’ potential success.
A month into the season, the race for league MVP is heating up as several big names are in contention for the top individual award. Sure, it’s early, but let’s check out the favorites and possible longshots who could be in the running when the season comes to a close in April.
The Favorites
1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – Oklahoma City Thunder (MVP Odds +135)
He’s the reigning, defending MVP after a historic season that culminated with a championship, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has picked up where he left off. The Thunder are thrashing teams as they started the season, losing just once in the first 18 games. SGA remains in the top three in scoring (32.2 PPG) as OKC is built around him. Winning back-to-back MVPs is rare – so that could hurt his chances in the voting. Still, SGA is expected to be a finalist, especially if he continues at a historic pace for the Thunder.
2. Nikola Jokić – Denver Nuggets (MVP Odds +160)
Nikola Jokić won three MVPs (2021, 2022, 2024) and could have won 5 straight as he finished second in voting in 2023 and 2025. Jokic is the gold standard for this award, proving he really can do it all – continuously flirting with triple-doubles on a nightly basis. So far, he is averaging a triple-double this season (29.6 PPG, 12.8 REB, 11.1 APG), and over his career, Jokic’s stat line is incredible: 21.9 PPG, 11 REB, and 7.3A APG – ideal for always being in the MVP conversation. Vote fatigue would play a factor, but if Denver challenges for a division title in the tough Northwest, he could win his fourth award.
3. Luka Doncic – Los Angeles Lakers (MVP Odds +325)
Luka Doncic continues to be a perennial MVP candidate since joining the NBA. He has finished in the top eight of voting since his rookie season, with the exception of last year, his first in L.A. But with expectations sky high with the Lakers, Luka is living up to the hype. He leads the league in scoring (34.5 PPG) and has taken over from LeBron James as the go-to-guy in L.A. Doncic remains one of the few players who average close to a triple-double on a nightly basis (8.8R, 8.9A). With James back, this is still Luka’s team, and if the Lakers win their division, he should have a real chance.
The Longshots
4. Giannis Antetokounmpo – Milwaukee Bucks (MVP Odds +1400)
Giannis Antetokounmpo is always in the MVP discussions. Even if the Bucks’ roster isn’t as stacked as in past title runs, his individual impact remains immense. After winning back-to-back MVPs in 2019 and 2020, the Greek Freak has been in the top four voting in each year since.
He’s capable of posting 30+ points per game, double-digit boards, and useful assists. Unfortunately, the Bucks are near the bottom of the East, and things would have to change for Giannis to be in consideration near the end of the season.
5. Tyrese Maxey – Philadelphia 76ers (MVP Odds +4000)
Tyrese Maxey is second in league scoring, averaging 33 points per game, and recently dropped 54 on the Bucks. Maxey sits 6th with 7.8 assists per game and has scored at least 30 points nine times this season, and Philly is 6-3 in those games. Despite the 76ers’ average record, Maxey’s odds continue to shorten. A longshot at best, but Philadelphia would need a tremendous second half for him to have a real shot.
6. Cade Cunningham – Detroit Pistons (MVP Odds +5000)
Cade Cunningham is a big reason why the Pistons have been red hot to start the season, having won 13 straight. He has averaged 27.3 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 9.9 assists, and has Detroit sitting atop the East. He even had an impressive triple-double this side of Jokic, dropping in 46 points on the Wizards. Overall, he deserves to be on this list, but would be a longshot with the company above him.
7. Victor Wembanyama – San Antonio Spurs (MVP Odds +12500)
Victor Wembanyama is a real longshot but one day he’ll contend for this award. He will likely win multiple Defensive Player of the Year awards and is already an elite rim protector and shot blocker. Is that good enough to be considered for MVP? Likely not, but at these odds, he still could get some votes, especially with this all-around scoring, rebounding, and skills. The question is, can the Spurs do damage in the uber-competitive West?
Final Summary
As of now, Jokić feels like the safest pick — his production, experience, and team outlook all align for another MVP run. But SGA is absolutely in the conversation to repeat. Luka could claim it if the Lakers trust him fully, while the others are in the running, but from a distance. Based on the odds, Luka Doncic (+325) gives you the best odds, especially considering he leads the NBA in scoring right now.
