New 2026 Oscars Odds: Best Bets, Predictions

The 2026 Academy Awards nominations are set as Sinners leads the way with 16 nominations, an Oscars record; however, One Battle After Another, which received 13 total nominations, leads the way in the marquee categories.  With Sinners claiming the Actor Award for best movie cast and best actor, it now sets up a face-off with One Battle for the top prize at the Oscars.  Let’s take a look at the latest odds after the Actor Awards.

Best Actor

Timothée Chalamet, Marty Suprême (-120)

This is Timothée Chalamet’s third nomination (Call Me by Your Name, A Complete Unknown), and while many expected the third time to be the charm, things are getting interesting. His Timothée Chalamet Oscar nomination history suggests this race may be more complicated than it looks.  

His portrayal of an unknown table tennis prodigy, Marty Mauser, has already made headlines with wins at the Critics’ Choice and Golden Globe. The momentum is there for Chalamet, 30, to become the second-youngest to win this honor.  But the downside may be where voters shy away from an unlikeable character, in a category that often sides with empathy.   

Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (+120)

After a stunning win at the Actor Awards, Michael B. Jordan is gaining steam ahead of the Academy Awards.  His line has moved from +800 after shining in a double-role of twin brothers in a psychological thriller in Sinners.  If voters continue to give the movie attention, Jordan could ride this wave to a huge win.  But the purest may see playing a double role as more of a technical feat rather than stringing on emotions.  And as always, genre, race remains an obstacle as only five black men have won leading roles in 97 years.

Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (+1100)

Wagner Moura plays an honest man caught in the heart of authoritarianism in this film.  Best known for his portrayal of Pablo Escobar in Narcos, Moura won Best Actor in a Motion Picture. Drama at the 83rd Golden Globe Awards (2026) for his role in this movie.  He became the first Brazilian to do so.  But voters will shy away from a non-English film that likely doesn’t have a chance to pull off the upset.

Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (+1300)

One Battle After Another is the favorite to win a handful of awards, but this one isn’t likely.  While Leonardo DiCaprio’s performance included memorable moments, it didn’t follow the narrative for his second Oscar win.  He’s been nominated 8 times, with his only win coming in 2016 (“The Revenant”).  

Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (+2000)

Ethan Hawke’s portrayal of famed musician Lorenz Hart gave him his fifth nomination, but his first in the lead role.  Hawke has spent decades in Hollywood and has shown his versatility playing different characters across different styles and eras.  While he was nominated, the film didn’t capture attention with the voters, earning just two overall nominations.

Best Actress 

Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (-10000)

This is essentially a slum-dunk as Jessie Buckley is a massive favorite, the biggest of the entire night. Buckley’s portrayal of Agnes Shakespeare delivers what many consider the performance of the year – and without a doubt, the best of her career.  She was nominated for “The Lost Daughter,” and this one confirms her stature among her generation’s elite.  And after an easy Actor Award win, this is just a formality. 

Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (+1300)

In any other year, Ross Byrne would be the favorite to win Best Actress, but this year, she’s up against a juggernaut.  Byrne was tremendous as a woman who unravels in her role as a psychotherapist who is stretched to her limits while caring for her daughter, who has a pediatric feeding disorder.   While she won’t win here, we should see her in other roles that could win in the future.

Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (+5500)

Twenty-four years after her “Almost Famous” nomination, Kate Hudson gets the nod for Song Sung Blue, proving she still has it.  But she won’t have the trophy as she’s a real long shot for this one.

Emma Stone, Bugonia (+7000)

A two-time winner, Emma Stone continues her run of getting nominated for anything she stars in. She was dynamic and absurd in this film, but it won’t be anywhere close to stealing votes from Buckley.  It won’t be long before she’s back in the winner’s circle, though.

Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (+15000)

Renate Reinsve was brilliant in this Norwegian drama, but despite 9 nominations, she was snubbed for a SAG, which essentially kills her chances to win here.

Best Picture

One Battle After Another (-575)

The top choice, which scored 13 nominations, has won the DGA Award and swept Critics’ Choice and Golden Globes for Best Picture.  Paul Thomas Anderson has never won, and many expect the Academy to finally reward him after decades of nominations.  The film touches on political themes that deal with the current climate (resistance, immigration, white supremacy), and that’s why many expect a win. 

Sinners (+365)

After the vampire tale ‘Sinners’ won the top Actor Award for best movie cast, the odds have come down a bit, and the movie could be making some waves heading to the Oscars.  The lively underdog musical set a record with 16 nods and has a 97% Rotten Tomatoes score.   Expect to see this movie get some votes, but Anderson’s momentum may prove too strong despite a mostly all-black cast.  

Hamnet (+2000)

While Jessie Buckley is a near-lock for Best Actress, Hamnet has been struggling to gain some traction for this award.  But here’s how and why it could shock the Oscars.  There is a path where the vote is split between Sinners and One Battle After Another, giving Hamnet a surprise, value-worthy victory.  It’s a bold strategy; let’s see if it can pay off for them.

Rest of the Field

Marty Supreme (+5000)

Frankenstein (+10000)

Sentimental Value  (+20000)

The Secret Agent  (+50000)

F1: The Movie  (+50000)

Bugonia (+50000)

Train Dreams (+50000)

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (-2000)

In 2000, Paul Thomas Anderson was nearly guaranteed to take home this honor, which would be his first ever.  Ever since cleaning up at the Golden Globes, this action-thriller/political drama has dominated the betting odds, including this one, where the chances of him losing are slim to none.

Rest of the Field

Ryan Coogler, Sinners (+600)

Chloé Zhao Hamnet (+3300)

Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (+8000)

Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (+12000)

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Madigan, Weapons (+115)

The battle for this award was flipped on its head after Amy Madigan took this honor at the Actor Awards.  She also won Critics’ Choice for Best Supporting Actress for her role as “Aunt Gladys.”  It’ll be interesting to see if voters continue the push for Madigan after her latest win.  

Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (+175)

Many were forecasting Teyana Taylor to win an Oscar after winning a Golden Globe. But her loss at the Actor Award dropped her odds from a big favorite to the second choice.  One Battle After Another is favored for Best Director and Picture, and many assumed she would be the frontrunner here. But things have changed.  Still, Taylor offers very good odds if you think she’s still the favorite.

Rest of the Field

Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (+235)

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value (+1700)

Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (+6000)

Best Supporting Actor

Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (-400)

Sean Penn’s portrayal of Col. Steven J. Lockjaw in One Battle After Another has earned him several nominations and finally paid off with a win at the Actor Awards.  Penn has gone from +375 to -400 in just a matter of weeks.  His performance has been described as slimy and terrifying.  The movie likely dominates awards, and there is a chance that vote splitting could see Penn with the win at a nice price, if you agree.

Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (+400)

Stellan Skarsgård won the 2026 Golden Globe as he portrays a formerly celebrated film director attempting to reconcile with his estranged daughter. He became the first actor nominated for this honor in an international, non-English-language film.    If voters want to continue the push for foreign performances, Skarsgard offers massive value, especially with the lines shifting in recent weeks.

Rest of the Field

Delroy Lindo, Sinners (+1000)

Benicio del Toro One, Battle After Another (+1500)

Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (+2000)