NFL 2026 FREE AGENCY: BEST NEXT TEAM BETS
Summary
The start of NFL free agency on March 11 is a key period where teams signal their competitive intentions for the 2026 season. For bettors, it also presents opportunities on the futures market, specifically with “next team” bets for prominent free agents.
Highlighted predictions include Kenneth Walker III likely joining the Washington Commanders, Travis Etienne fitting well with the Denver Broncos, and Kirk Cousins potentially landing with the Cleveland Browns as a win-now move. Tyreek Hill, despite past success and off-field concerns, is seen as a possible target for the desperate Las Vegas Raiders, offering longshot value.
If you want to see who’s really trying to be a factor in the 2026 NFL season, then it’s all coming to a head when NFL free agency officially begins on March 11. The first week of free agency is where the pretenders and the contenders really separate themselves. Signing the marquee free agents doesn’t automatically make your team a Super Bowl champion, but it shows you’re actually trying. And, as fans, that’s all you can really ask.
But, as bettors, we can make some money as these guys collect their signing bonuses too.
HERE ARE YOUR BEST NEXT TEAM BETS FOR 2026
KENNETH WALKER III, Running Back
2025: 1027 yards, five touchdowns, 31 receptions, 282 receiving yards, Super Bowl LV MVP
While there might be free agents in this class due to make more money than Kenneth Walker III, none come with a higher profile as he picked up the premier piece of Super Bowl hardware, the MVP, in the Seattle Seahawks’ 29-13 victory over the New England Patriots. Walker rushed 27 times for 135 yards and in a game without many standout offensive performances, a “pretty good one” was enough to grab that trophy. So, who’s he going to land with?
Washington Commanders +300
New York Giants +500
Minnesota Vikings +600
New Orleans Saints +700
Arizona Cardinals +800
Tennessee Titans +900
Kansas City Chiefs +1000
Jacksonville Jaguars +1200
Pittsburgh Steelers +1400
What’s interesting here is that the Seahawks are nowhere to be found. They’ve obviously made their plan to move on known and will likely draft someone and as the defending champs, they don’t have any real hole to fill. They can easily take that No. 32 pick in the first round and turn into a running back to split time with Zach Charbonnet.
BEST BET: Commanders +300
Washington had a down year after making it to the NFC Championship in 2024 and, make no mistake, some heads could roll if they don’t get back into the mix this season. KW3 makes a lot of sense for them, not just as an explosive runner, but as an asset and dump off option in the passing game.
TRAVIS ETIENNE, JR. Running Back
2025: 1,107 yards, seven touchdowns, 36 receptions, 292 yards, six receiving touchdowns
The Jacksonville Jaguars decided not to franchise tag Etienne, so he will be free to explore all the options suddenly showing up in his Instagram DMs after finding himself a free man for the first time since he was recruited out of high school by Clemson.
Kansas City Chiefs +400
Pittsburgh Steelers +500
Denver Broncos +500
Baltimore Ravens +600
Houston Texans +700
Tennessee Titans +900
New Orleans Saints +1200
Washington Commanders +1200
BEST BET: Denver Broncos +500
Etienne fits everything Sean Payton wants in a running back. He can pound it, can escape with the explosive speed and can be a key contributor to the passing game. With Denver picking so low in the draft, they should look to spend some money here and guarantee filling a key need.
KIRK COUSINS, Quarterback
2025: 5-3 record, 61.7 completion percentage, 1,721 yards, 10 touchdowns, five interceptions
While Cousins didn’t have the Atlanta Falcons experience he’d hoped, he comes out of his stint there as the belle of the ball in a very weak (and expensive to trade for) quarterback class. With only one sure-fire first round QB coming off the draft board in April, teams will have to battle for scraps to make sure they at least have a competent signal-caller in 2026. Cousins should be the first guy snapped up.
Minnesota Vikings +300
New York Jets +400
Pittsburgh Steelers +500
Miami Dolphins +600
Detroit Lions +800
Cincinnati Bengals +1200
Cleveland Browns +1200
BEST BET: Cleveland Browns +1200
Oh yeah. I’m calling it. If Cousins is content to be a well-loved and expensive back up, he’s not going to the Steelers or Lions. He’ll sign with the Los Angeles Rams or San Francisco 49ers. So why not the Vikings? Because they’re not moving off JJ McCarthy and will give him every shot to claim the job this coming offseason. So why not the Dolphins? Because their owner wants to tank. I will be shocked if they make any move to win outside of trading Tua Tagovailoa for whatever magic beans and Arby’s coupons they can get. That leaves the Browns, and while you might think they have a Shedeur Sanders problem that looks a lot like a JJ McCarthy problem, I don’t think that’s so much of a problem. No one there is married to Shedeur or even drafted him. And Cleveland wants to win now. This is a best bet that pays like a longshot.
TYREEK HILL, Wide Receiver
2025: 21 receptions, 265 yards, one touchdown
Hill tore up his knee right as the Miami Dolphins were about to ship him out of town on a trade. At one time he was one of the five most dangerous receivers in the game. Now, he’s only dangerous if you’re a single woman ovulating in his general area. Hill can probably still play, but anyone expecting a 2020-2023 level performance from him will be much like his plethora of impregnated ex-girlfriends — very let down.
New England Patriots +125
Kansas City Chiefs +175
Philadelphia Eagles +400
Denver Broncos +900
San Francisco 49ers +1000
Los Angeles Chargers +1000
New York Giants +1200
Baltimore Ravens +1400
Buffalo Bills +2000
Green Bay Packers +2000
Las Vegas Raiders +2000
Tennessee Titans +2000
BEST BET: Las Vegas Raiders +2000
This notion that Hill will land with a legitimate and contending franchise is laughable to me. He comes with more baggage than when he takes all his kids to Disneyland. The Chiefs bailed on him already. They won’t want him back. As for the Pats? The off-the-field nonsense that Hill brings is exactly why they’re parting ways with Stefon Diggs, who was their best receiver in 2025. The Eagles? How many head cases do they want in that receives room? For Hill to land on a team, they’ll have to be desperate for weapons and name recognition and the Raiders fit that bill. Here’s another best bet that’ll pay you longshot odds.
Follow Adam Greene on Blue Sky @AdamGreene13, threads @adam.greene and Twitter @TheFirstMan