NFL 2026 FREE AGENCY: BEST UPDATED SUPER BOWL ODDS

It may not be as exciting or have the pageantry of the NFL Draft, but Day One of NFL Free Agency comes with its own hype to dominate the sports news cycle. Like, did you know they’re playing baseball somewhere while Adam Schefter was hunkered down in Pat McAfee’s bunker jumping every time his phone chirps? It’s the world playing each other, I guess. Didn’t the Olympics just happen last month? Now you’re telling me the whole world is playing baseball? Nobody has time for that. 

What we had in the NFL world is a doozy of a day, where more than 30 players inked new contracts, most with new teams. If it’s not free agency, it’s trades and it’s just been a wonderful thing to behold. 

The odds have reflected the early movement, and while there are plenty of big-name free agents still currently looking to consciously couple with a team, no move will make the odds jump like they did on the first day of free agency. 

HERE ARE YOUR 4 BIGGEST ODDS MOVERS AFTER DAY ONE;

1. LOS ANGELES RAMS +750

Last season: 14-6, NFC Runner-Up

Additions: Trent McDuffie, CB, from the Kansas City Chiefs (via trade), Jaylen Watson, CB, from the Kansas City Chiefs (signed free agent), Joe Cardona, long snapper, from the New England Patriots (signed free agent)

Free agents kept: Tyler Higbee, TE and Kam Curl, Safety

Free agents relinquished: None

The Rams jumped to the Super Bowl favorite slot after trading their No. 29 overall pick in April’s draft, a 2027 third rounder and a couple of 2025 day three selections for the All-Pro corner from Kansas City. Then, before everyone had finished lunch on Day One, they’d added his teammate, Jaylen Watson, on a three-year, $51 million contract. They tossed on New England’s long snapper while they were at it and kept their best potential free agent loss, Kam Curl, in house with a new deal. Higbee, the best tight end in Rams history, will return on a very cheap deal to finish out his career in the horns and keep LA’s 12-personnel downright deadly. 

While Los Angeles jumped the Seattle Seahawks in the odds, they might not be done. They still have a free agent or two of their own they might like to have back, like cornerback Roger McCreary who they acquired in a trade from the Tennessee Titans midseason and backup quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. Both made it through the first day of free agency.

2. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS +775

Last Season: 16-3, NFC West Champion, NFC Champion, Super Bowl LX Champion

Additions: None

Free agents kept: Rashid Shaheed, WR and Josh Jobe, CB

Free agents relinquished: Boye Mafe, Edge to the Cincinnati Bengals, Kenneth Walker III, RB to the Kansas City Chiefs, Coby Bryant, Safety, to the Chicago Bears

To no one’s surprise the defending champs were raided of some of their key players, with the biggest loss coming at running back with Kenneth Walker III heading to Kansas City. The Seahawks did manage to keep WR3 and Kick/Punt return weapon Rashid Shaheed, who they acquired from the New Orleans Saints midseason in a trade and Josh Jobe, a key corner. 

Tariq Woolen, CB is a guy they’d love to have back, but the market, especially after so many corners got snatched up early, could explode for him in the coming days. Seattle didn’t get particularly worse, to drop a spot. It’s just that the Rams almost had them last year and got significantly better.

3. BALTIMORE RAVENS +1000

Last Season: 8-9, Did Not Make the Playoffs

Additions: Maxx Crosby, Edge, from the Las Vegas Raiders (via trade)

Free agents kept: None

Free agents relinquished: Tyler Linderbaum, C to the Las Vegas Raiders, Dre’Mont Jones, Edge, to the New England Patriots, Charlie Kolar, TE to the Los Angeles Chargers and Isaiah Likely, TE, Jordan Stout, Punter and Ar’Darius Washington, Safety, to the New York Giants

While the Ravens’ saw their odds jump from +1100 with the addition of Crosby, that is a lot of talent they let walk out the door, including one of the best interior offensive linemen in the league. Are they better, overall, than the team that hit the field last season? It doesn’t look like it to me, but these odds are all predicated on Lamar Jackson looking like 2024 Lamar Jackson. As for who they still have available, I don’t see anyone they’ll be dying to bring back as a free agent as most were older players. DeAndre Hopkins will probably retire. 

4. MIAMI DOLPHINS +20000

Last season: 7-10, did not make the playoffs

Additions: Malik Willis, QB from the Green Bay Packers

Free Agents kept: None

Free Agents relinquished (or cut): Tua Tagovailoa, QB (cut), Cole Strange, Guard and Alec Ingold, fullback to the Los Angeles Chargers, Jake Bailey, Punter, to the Atlanta Falcons and Larry Borom, right tackle, to the Detroit Lions

The Dolphins took a massive drop from +15000 to +20000 after loading Tagovailoa into the nearest trebuchet and firing him over the castle wall. They replaced him with the hottest QB in free agency, Malik Willis, something I honestly didn’t see them doing. Miami wanted to tank a few years ago and failed at it. This looked like the perfect opportunity to set themselves up to draft another QB in 2027 and give it another go. It appears that the new regime led by Jeff Hafley, the head coach, actually wants to give it a go for 2026. Weird. 

Like the Ravens, there doesn’t appear to be any players from the former administration that will return as free agents. I could see guard James Daniels maybe wanting to stay in South Beach, however.

Follow Adam Greene on Blue Sky @AdamGreene13, threads @adam.greene and Twitter @TheFirstMan