NFL Best Bets and Predictions for Week 6

Los Angeles Rams at Baltimore Ravens 1:00 p.m. ET

Rams -7.5

Ravens +7.5

Moneyline: LA (-400) BAL (+316)

Total: 45

You’d likely wait to see the status of Lamar Jackson but all signs are pointing to the former MVP missing another week.  Even with Jackson, the Ravens have been terrible so far this season especially on defense.  They are allowing nearly 6 yards per play and now take on the best offense in the league as per DVOA and success rate. Matthew Stafford and the Rams should be able to rack up points in this one, the only question is can the Ravens offense contribute as well.

The Rams suffered a heartbreaker loss to the 49ers 26-23 in overtime but Stafford still threw for 389 yards and three touchdowns.    Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, and Tutu Atwell should be able to stretch an injured Ravens secondary.  On the other side, QB Cooper Rush struggled against the Texans throwing 3 interceptions in a big loss.  Derrick Henry has also struggled and faces a talented Rams front seven which could hinder the Ravens offense.  Meanwhile, Baltimore is 1-4 ATS this season while the Rams are 3-2 ATS.  

Prediction

The Ravens defense, known to be dominant for decades have been rock bottom this season allowing 35.4 PPG and 408.8 YPG.  Baltimore has gone over in all five games while the Rams have averaged 26 points in four of their last five games and have one of the most balanced offenses in the NFL.  With the way the Ravens defense is playing, the Rams could cover this number themselves.  BEST BET:  OVER 45

San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4:25 p.m. ET

49ers +3 (-118)
Buccaneers -3 (-102)

Moneyline: SF (+130) TB (-150)

Total: 47.5

Both teams have been involved in close games this season as every game they’ve played has ended within 6 points.  Expect nothing less in this marquee matchup between two 4-1 squads.

The 49ers are still dealing with injuries including Brock Purdy but fortunately, his backup, Mac Jones has been exceptional.  He’s 3-0 since taking over and has thrown for 905 yards, six touchdowns and just one interception.

The Bucs just find a way to keep winning – despite ranking 20th on defense and 31st on special teams.  The offense has been good with Baker Mayfield finding ways to lead late comebacks. 

But the defense is not great, especially the secondary.  The metrics aren’t good for the Bucs giving up nearly 7 yards per pass.  For Kyle Shanahan it’s a best case scenario as he’ll draw up a scheme to take advantage of that defense.

Predictions

We could be in for a real shootout as both sides are capable of putting up points while both defenses aren’t what you’d call elite.  The Bucs are averaging 27 PPG while the 49ers are around 22 PPG.  Both sides are 3-2 on the OVER this season and Tampa is coming up in a game where they torched Seattle for 38 points.  Bucs rookie WR Emeka Egbuka and 49ers WR Kendrick Bourne both had big games last week and now face secondaries that could have holes.  BEST BET:  OVER 47.5

As good as the Buccaneers are at throwing the ball, the 49ers are actually better.  San Francisco is coming off a mini-bye and the 10-day break will be the difference here, especially with the long travel for the Bucs, returning home from Seattle.  BEST BET:  San Francisco +3

Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs 8:20 p.m. ET

Lions +2.5 (-114)

Chiefs -2.5 (-106)

Moneyline: DET (+117)  KC (-137)

Total: 52

After an opening week loss to Green Bay the Lions have been on a tear winning by an average of 19 points and are a perfect 4-0 ATS. Quarterback Jared Goff has been on fire with 1,287 passing yards with 12 touchdowns and just two interceptions.  The Detroit offense is No. 1 averaging nearly 35 points per game and ranks in the top-10 in yards, rushing yards and yards per pass.  But injuries are affecting this team as both cornerbacks are out and the left tackle as Taylor Decker is out with a shoulder injury.  This means Giovani Manu guards Goff’s blind side against one of the elite pass rushers in the game, Chris Jones.

The Chiefs were stunned by the Jaguars in the final minute on Monday Night Football and there are concerns that the Chiefs. They allowed just 319 yards but penalties were a problem and they couldn’t stop Jacksonville on third downs as the Jags went 5-for-9 and 3-for-4 in the red zone.  Still, they are the Chiefs and typically rise up for big games at home.  KC seems to have fixed some of their issues on offense putting up 476 yards on MNF including 318 passing yards.  They’ve scored 87 points in their last three games.

Key Players to Watch

Jahmyr Gibbs, Running Back, Detroit Lions

Jahmyr Gibbs is off to a fast start for the Lions running for 325 yards, four touchdowns and averaging 4.6 yards per carry.  He faces a run defense that allows 4.8 YPC, the seventh most in the NFL.  Gibbs has been dangerous out of the backfield adding 22 catches for 112 yards and a score.  Add in RB David Montgomery to the mix and the Lions could have a huge game on the ground as the Chiefs are 29th in the NFL EPA/Rush on defense.

Prediction

While the Lions are rolling, something tells me the Chiefs will rebound in prime time. KC is 9-1 SU in their last 10 home games and in that span, the defense has allowed an average of 18.9 points per game. And in their last 30 home games, the Chiefs are 25-5 SU,  Arrowhead is a tough place to win for the visitors and expect home field to be the field.  BEST BET:  Chiefs -1.5

Prop Play – Tyquan Thornton

Why the player markets aren’t out as of this writing look out for Tyquan Thornton props as the Chiefs look to take advantage of a Lions secondary hit by injuries.  There could be value if you get in early.

Lions vs Chiefs Betting Trends

• The OVER is 8-2 in the last 10 Lions vs Chiefs games
• Detroit is 3-1 ATS in their last four games against Kansas City
• The Lions are 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games
• Detroit is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games
• Chiefs are 2-3 ATS this season