NFL Best Bets for Sunday, November 9

Fading narratives can be one of the most profitable angles in NFL betting. The media likes easy, digestible storylines without a lot of nuance, and many new bettors take these narratives as gospel. That can lead to inflated lines and value that just wasn’t there before the sports betting explosion over the last decade. With that in mind, let’s take a peek at where we can find value in Week 10 of the 2025 NFL season.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 vs. New England Patriots

Mike Vrabel has surpassed Indianapolis’ Shane Steichen in the NFL Coach of the Year odds. Vrabel is currently 7-2 in his first season at the helm of the New England Patriots, and that has led to a lot of buzz about the Pats’ postseason chances.

New England has won six straight games after a 1-2 start, but the Patriots have just one quality win in this stretch. That was a gritty win against Buffalo in upstate New York, yet New England greatly benefited from three Bills’ turnovers in that game. Otherwise, the Pats have beaten up on the dregs of the NFL during this winning streak.

Drake Maye has posted some solid numbers and might be a fringe top ten signal caller in the league, but the Pats have a lot of issues on offense. Maye has been sacked 34 times, and the ground game has been nonexistent. Rookie TreVeyon Henderson is New England’s leading rusher with just 283 yards, and fumbles have been a problem for all of the Patriots’ running backs.

Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is coming off a bye week where the Buccaneers had time to get healthy. Todd Bowles excels when he has additional time to prepare for a young quarterback, and Vita Vea should be able to dominate at the line of scrimmage. The absence of Haason Reddick is a hit on this side of the ball, yet there is a lot of talent at linebacker.

The one fear for Tampa Bay in this game is its lack of receiving depth. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin won’t suit up, and Jalen McMillan is still on injured reserve. That puts a lot of pressure on first-round pick Emeka Egbuka to continue to deliver. If Egbuka can be a decent No. 1 option, Baker Mayfield should post solid numbers through the air in a Bucs’ win.

Arizona Cardinals +6.5 at Seattle Seahawks

Many people are jumping on the Seattle bandwagon after the Seahawks thoroughly thrashed the Washington Commanders on Sunday Night Football. Seattle raced out to a 28-0 lead in the nation’s capital before cruising to a 24-point victory last week.

On the other hand, Arizona looks to be a team in disarray. The Cardinals placed Kyler Murray on injured reserve with a foot injury, and it appears that Murray’s time in the desert is at an end. The No. 1 overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft has never been able to put it all together, despite Arizona bringing in Kliff Kingsbury and others to try to get the most out of him.

Enter veteran signal caller Jacoby Brissett. The journeyman has been solid in his three starts with the Cardinals, throwing six touchdown passes compared to just one interception in this stretch. Brissett almost led Arizona to upset victories over both Indianapolis and Green Bay before shining in a victory over Dallas on Monday Night Football.

Arizona is sitting at the bottom of the NFC West with a 3-5 record, but the Cardinals have been competitive in every one of their games. Their five losses have been by a total of 13 points, so they still have a positive point differential despite their woes. Seattle beat Arizona on a last-second 52-yard field goal when these teams met earlier this season, so the Seahawks are fully aware that they will have their hands full.

Sam Darnold has been solid for the Seahawks this year, but Seattle is going to struggle on offense here. Kenneth Walker III has averaged under 4.0 YPC in each of his last three outings, while Zach Charbonnet is averaging just 2.9 YPC on the year. Additionally, the receiving corps is really banged up with four of the six wide outs in the two-deep listed as questionable to suit up.

Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 at Los Angeles Chargers

It’s been trendy to hate on the Pittsburgh Steelers this season. Pittsburgh has not been as strong on defense as we have seen in previous years, and it’s clear that the offense is limited. However, the Steelers are still atop the AFC North at 5-3 after last week’s win over Indianapolis.

Aaron Rodgers is posting solid numbers after being signed late in the offseason. Rodgers is completing 68.7% of his passes for 17 touchdowns and five interceptions, but it’s clear that he can no longer stretch the field. The future Hall of Fame quarterback is averaging just 7.0 YPC. Pittsburgh hasn’t needed much out of him though, and D.K. Metcalf has been an excellent addition with his ability to get YAC yards. Metcalf is averaging 16.1 YPC while ranking eighth in the NFL in YAC.

The Los Angeles Chargers are 6-3, but a lot of shine is off this team after a 3-0 start. LA struggled against both Miami and Tennessee, as the Chargers have had some issues punching it in when they are in the red zone. They have dealt with a lot of injuries at running back, and it’s clear that Keenan Allen is no longer the difference maker he was in the past. The loss of Joe Alt to a season-ending injury is massive too, as the Chargers are perilously thin at tackle.

If the Chargers can reliably get to Aaron Rodgers, they stand a good chance of winning this game, but I find that to be a dubious proposition. The Chargers have lost a lot of their defensive depth, and they have surrendered 20 or more points in seven straight games. They won’t have any semblance of home field advantage here either, as Pittsburgh fans will flood SoFi Stadium with Terrible Towels on Sunday night.