NFL Best Bets Sunday October 15th

We’ve seen some major shakeups in the NFL futures odds and changes in perceptions of contenders through the first third of the 2025 NFL season. The defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles are no longer the favorites in the NFC, having been surpassed by the Green Bay Packers and the Detroit Lions. In the AFC, the Baltimore Ravens are no longer favored to win their division for the first time since 2022 after a 1-5 start. Baltimore and current Super Bowl favorite Buffalo get the week off in Week 7.

Las Vegas Raiders +12 at Kansas City Chiefs

People are jumping back on the Kansas City bandwagon too quickly after another slow start to the season. The Chiefs are currently 3-3 following a 30-17 win over the Detroit Lions on Sunday Night Football, yet they have been installed as a double-digit favorite per the NFL betting odds over the Las Vegas Raiders this week.

Kansas City should be more dangerous on offense with the return of Rashee Rice. However, Rice isn’t likely to play too much given this is his first game back after a six-game suspension. Rice underwent surgery on his knee in the offseason and also dealt with a groin issue in the preseason, so Andy Reid will probably ease him back into the swing of things. 

The Chiefs haven’t been very explosive on offense without Rice. Travis Kelce is the leading receiver, but he is not the big play threat he was in the past. Hollywood Brown is averaging just 10.1 YPR as the top wide receiver in Rice’s absence, and JuJu Smith-Schuster hasn’t been the playmaker that some were expecting. Additionally, Patrick Mahomes is Kansas City’s leading rusher as neither Isiah Pacheco nor Kareem Hunt have been particularly effective.

Las Vegas has been hit or miss on offense this season. Geno Smith has been sacked 18 times and has thrown 10 interceptions compared to just seven touchdown passes. Smith has two solid tight ends in Michael Mayer and Brock Bowers though, and rookie running back Ashton Jeanty has run for 424 yards and three touchdowns.

This is too many points to lay with Kansas City. Las Vegas isn’t a great team, but the Raiders can stay within the number. Their two losses to the Chiefs last season were by a total of nine points.

Under 39.5 in Cleveland vs. Miami

Miami is a better team than Cleveland on paper, but the Dolphins are in total disarray. They come into this game with a 1-5 record, and there is rampant speculation that head coach Mike McDaniel will be fired very soon. The Dolphins’ only victory this season has come against the winless New York Jets, highlighting their ineptitude.

Tua Tagovailoa publicly apologized for his criticism of McDaniel earlier this week, but the dye has been cast. Tagovailoa is lashing out because he is no longer the same quarterback he was in the past. His limitations have become very clear as he cannot throw the ball down the field reliably, and he tossed three interceptions in a loss to the Los Angeles Chargers last week.

Cleveland arguably has the worst offense in the NFL. The Browns are averaging an NFL worst 13.7 PPG, and they have mustered just 4.1 yards per play. That led to Cleveland kicking off a youth movement by benching Joe Flacco in favor of rookie Dillon Gabriel. There hasn’t been a noticeable difference between the two signal callers to this point with Gabriel averaging just 4.8 YPA, and he was sacked six times by Pittsburgh last Sunday.

However, the Browns have been fantastic on defense. Cleveland ranks in the top four in total defense, allowing just 262.3 YPG and 4.7 yards per play. Myles Garrett remains one of the best pass rushers in the NFL, and the secondary has been very good. Denzel Ward and Grant Delpit could both make the Pro Bowl despite Cleveland’s record, while Devin Bush has been a nice addition to the linebacking corps.

This has all the makings of a low-scoring game. Tagovailoa and Gabriel will both have a lot of trouble moving the ball, as neither team is likely to surpass 20 points.

Denver Broncos -6.5 vs. New York Giants

It wasn’t pretty, but the Denver Broncos got the job done against the New York Jets in London last week. Denver finished the game with just 246 total yards and a total of 12 first downs, yet the defense held firm. The Broncos sacked Justin Fields nine times and held the Jets to a mere 82 yards of offense to win their third straight game. 

Bo Nix isn’t great, but the young quarterback doesn’t have to do much for Denver to win games. Nix is largely asked to be a game manager, and he has succeeded in that regard. He has been sacked just six times and only has four turnovers through six games. Nix has been buoyed by a solid ground game led by J.K. Dobbins too. The former Baltimore running back is averaging 4.9 YPC and is the fourth-leading rusher in the AFC.

Denver’s defense has been phenomenal this season. The Broncos lead the league in red zone defense, third-down defense, fourth-down defense, and yards per play. Additionally, they rank second in scoring defense (15.8 PPG) and total defense (254.2 YPG). Nik Bonitto has seven sacks in his last four games, while Patrick Surtain II continues to show that he is the best cornerback in the NFL.

The New York Giants are riding high after their upset win over the Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday Night Football. However, they are very banged up ahead of this tilt. Two of their starting offensive linemen are considered questionable, and the receiving corps is banged up. Additionally, the linebacker depth is pretty thin, so the starters will be asked to play extra snaps.

The Giants are winless on the road this season. Three of their four losses have been by double digits, and they are likely to lose by 10+ points to the Broncos in Mile High Stadium.