NFL Best Bets Sunday

There has been a major shakeup in the AFC through the first five weeks of the 2025 NFL season. The Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, and Houston Texans were among the favorites to win the conference, but all three teams currently have losing records and are sitting in third place in their respective divisions. That has opened the door for other teams to compete with the Buffalo Bills for the top spot in the AFC, including the Denver Broncos and Indianapolis Colts.

Denver Broncos -7 vs. New York Jets (in London)

It’s been a strong start to the season for the Denver Broncos. Denver is currently 3-2, and both of the Broncos’ losses came on last second field goals. The Broncos are coming off a convincing road win over the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles, and they now get a chance to move to 4-2 against the winless New York Jets.

As long as the Denver Broncos can score at least 21 points, they will win this game. Justin Fields is now 0-26 as a starter when the opposing team scores at least 21 points following the New York Jets’ loss to the Dallas Cowboys last Sunday. The Jets’ have the second-worst scoring defense in the league, surrendering 31.4 PPG, and that’s despite their last four opponents taking their foot off the gas pedal after going up by 14 points or more.

Fields will really struggle to move the ball against an elite Denver defense. The Broncos rank in the top five in total defense and scoring defense, and they are the best team in the league when it comes to bringing pressure on opposing quarterbacks by a significant amount. Nik Bonitto has already racked up seven sacks through five games, and Pat Surtain II has shown why many consider him to be the best cornerback in the game today.

Indianapolis Colts -7 vs. Arizona Cardinals

I still don’t fully believe in Daniel Jones’ renaissance, but he is thriving under Shane Steichen. Indianapolis hired Steichen to mentor Anthony Richardson as he did with Jalen Hurts while in Philadelphia. While it didn’t work out with Richardson, Steichen has been able to work his magic with Jones to this point. Jones was widely regarded as a bust after six years with the New York Giants, but he currently ranks ahead of every other quarterback with a 79.7 QBR.

A strong run game behind an elite offensive line has been a big part of Jones’ and Indianapolis’ success this season. Jonathan Taylor leads the league in carries, rushing yards, and rushing touchdowns while averaging 5.1 YPC, and the offensive line has only allowed Jones to be sacked four times in five games. Five-time All-Pro Quenton Nelson is the lynchpin of this unit, but left tackle Bernhard Raimann has rewarded the front office with his play after signing a four-year, $100 million extension in the offseason.

Meanwhile, the Arizona Cardinals have to be deflated after last week’s loss to the previously winless Tennessee Titans. It appeared that the Cardinals were well on their way to a win after Emari Demercado broke through the line of scrimmage on a 72-yard touchdown run to put Arizona up 27-6 with under 13 minutes to play. However, Demercado dropped the ball too early and fumbled out of the back of the end zone, resulting in a touchback. Tennessee ended up scoring two minutes later and then benefited from one of the flukiest plays in recent memory to come back and win 22-21.

Each of Arizona’s games has been decided by a single score this season, but the Cardinals have not faced a team with a run game like the Colts. Arizona’s front four is better than it has been in the recent past, yet there isn’t a lot of depth along the defensive line and in the linebacking corps. 

To make matters worse for the Cardinals, Kyler Murray is considered questionable with a foot injury. Murray hasn’t been great this season, averaging under 200 YPG in his five starts, but his mobility makes him somewhat dangerous. If Murray is unable to play, Jacoby Brissett will get the start, and the Colts are very familiar with his style after Brissett spent four seasons in Indianapolis.

Cincinnati Bengals +14 at Green Bay Packers

If Jake Browning was still the starting quarterback for the Cincinnati Bengals, this would not be a play. Browning was simply not good in place of Joe Burrow, and The Athletic’s Paul Dehner Jr. did a good job of pointing out some of Browning’s shortcomings in a piece earlier this week. That’s why Cincinnati made its first trade ever with their in-state rival to acquire Joe Flacco.

Flacco is limited, but he is a veteran that knows what it takes to keep games close. He led the Cleveland Browns to wins in four of his five starts back in 2023, taking the team to the postseason in the process. Cincinnati is still incredibly talented with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins on the perimeter, so this is a team that can still make some noise.

Green Bay is the biggest favorite of the week. The Packers are playing at home after a bye week, but this team continues to get too much credit. They have not won a game by more than 14 points yet this season, and they lost to the Cleveland Browns and settled for a tie against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 4.

The Packers are still pretty banged up along the offensive line too. Tackles Rasheed Walker and Zach Tom are both questionable along with guard Aaron Banks. That leaves Green Bay with just two healthy starters in the trenches, and Elgton Jenkins is still learning how to play center after spending the first six seasons of his career as a guard. 

I expect Green Bay to win this game, but 14 points is a lot to cover even if it’s after a bye week. Garbage time could play a major factor too, given the circumstances in this game.