NFL Conference Championship Game Best Bets

Unlike Wild Card Weekend, there were only two competitive games during the Divisional Round. The Los Angeles Rams were pushed to the brink once more, needing to survive overtime against the Chicago Bears to advance to the NFC Championship Game. Meanwhile, the Denver Broncos outlasted the Buffalo Bills in an overtime thriller, but they lost starting quarterback Bo Nix on the last offensive play of the game. Both teams are underdogs on Conference Championship Weekend, as the New England Patriots are currently favored by 4.5 points and the Seattle Seahawks are favored by 2.5 points per the NFL betting odds.

Denver Broncos +4.5 vs. New England Patriots

Very few people are picking Denver to beat New England on Sunday, but the Broncos are playing at home and have the best defense in the AFC. It won’t be as easy without Nix in the lineup, yet it’s not like Nix was an elite signal caller. Denver did set a new record with 12 comeback victories in the regular season, as the Broncos frequently fell behind early. Nix was only sacked 22 times, yet he averaged just 6.4 YPA with 25 touchdowns and 11 interceptions.

The trouble for Denver is that Nix was more of a known quantity than backup Jarrett Stidham. It’s been three years since Stidham last threw a pass in a competitive NFL game, so he is a major wild card. Stidham was turnover-prone when he did take the field with eight touchdowns and eight interceptions, and he was sacked a lot. However, Sean Payton has had Stidham in his system for three seasons, so he should be able to craft a gameplan that plays to his strengths.

Denver’s defense should be able to give Drake Maye and the New England offense all sorts of trouble. Maye has completed under 60% of his passes in both of the Patriots’ postseason victories so far, and he greatly benefited from turnovers by Houston last week. The Patriots don’t have a great receiving corps as Stefon Diggs is a mercurial talent, and the top two receivers aside from Kayshon Boutte have been running back Rhamondre Stevenson and tight end Hunter Henry.

Patrick Surtain II can shut down an entire side of the field as the best cover corner in the league, further narrowing Maye’s choices. Denver is very healthy on that side of the ball, and Maye has yet to prove that he can put his team on his back. Furthermore, this will be his first playoff road game, and it’s not going to be easy to win in Mile High Stadium.

New England should be favored given Denver’s injury situation, but the Broncos can’t be counted out. This defense can keep the game close, and that’s why I’ll take the home team and the points. The Under is likely a solid bet in the AFC Championship Game, too, especially if the Broncos can get their ground game going against the Patriots.

Seattle Seahawks -2.5 vs. Los Angeles Rams

Both games between Seattle and Los Angeles were razor close in the regular season. The Rams knocked off the Seahawks 21-19 at home in Week 11, as four Seattle turnovers proved costly. Seattle had 414 total yards compared to just 249 total yards for LA, but Sam Darnold had his worst game of the season with four interceptions.

The second tilt between these NFC West foes was played in Seattle, and the Seahawks pulled out a wild 38-37 overtime victory to get the inside track on home-field advantage throughout the postseason. Once again, the Seahawks were -3 in the turnover battle as Darnold threw two picks. However, a Rashid Shaheed 58-yard punt return touchdown gave Seattle life in the fourth quarter, and the Seahawks ended up erasing a 16-point deficit.

Darnold had two of his worst games of the season against the Rams, and he must limit turnovers if the Seahawks are to make it to the Super Bowl here. Fortunately, he doesn’t need to do that much for Seattle to win, as we saw last week against San Francisco. Darnold threw just 17 passes in the 41-6 rout of the 49ers as the special teams and defense were phenomenal.

Seattle’s ground game is something to keep an eye on, too. Kenneth Walker III averaged 4.6 YPC during the regular season, and he broke off a coupleof big runs against the Rams in their previous meetings. Walker can be a dangerous receiving option out of the backfield as well, given the performance of the offensive line all season.

The receiving corps has been excellent, too. Jaxon Smith-Njigba was the NFL’s receiving leader in the regular season with 119 receptions for 1,793 yards and 10 touchdowns. Former Rams’ receiver Cooper Kupp is a solid possession receiver that can move the chains, while Rashid Shaheed is a big-play threat.

Matt Stafford is one of the favorites to be named NFL MVP after a phenomenal season in which he threw for over 4,700 yards and 46 touchdowns against just eight interceptions. Stafford has an elite receiver in Puka Nacua and a solid veteran in Davante Adams, while Kyren Williams and Blake Corum were a fantastic 1-2 punch in the backfield.

The offensive line has done a good job of protecting Stafford all season. However, Seattle has an excellent defensive line that can get to the quarterback. DeMarcus Lawrence and Leonard Williams have shown they still have gas in the tank, while Byron Murphy II does a great job of holding up blockers.

This should be an excellent game between two relatively evenly matched teams, but the Rams benefited greatly from turnover luck in the first two meetings, and it’s unlikely that Darnold will be as turnover-prone with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. Additionally, Seattle has the best home-field advantage in the league, as we saw last weekend, and the raucous home crowd will carry the Seahawks to the Super Bowl and a cover on Sunday evening.