NFL CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND BEST BETS
Summary
The AFC Championship features the New England Patriots visiting the Denver Broncos. With Denver’s strong pass defense and Jarrett Stidham starting at quarterback, the prediction is for a low-scoring game. Key bets focus on Patriots quarterback Drake Maye, expecting him to stay under 222.5 passing yards and 1.5 touchdowns, but to exceed 30.5 rushing yards.
In the NFC Championship, the Los Angeles Rams face the Seattle Seahawks. Despite both defenses performing well last week, their previous high-scoring overtime matchup suggests a different outcome. The recommended bets are for both quarterbacks, Matthew Stafford and Sam Darnold, to exceed their passing yard and touchdown totals.
As always, I’ll have my final picks against the spread in the Friday Afternoon Quarterback, but there’s plenty of individual bets we can capitalize on over these two games. Bets against the spread, only? I’m sorry. I thought this was America.
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS AT DENVER BRONCOS (+4.5, O/U: 42.5)
The Patriots (16-3) make it to the AFC title game after being the beneficiary of the second consecutive CJ Stroud playoff meltdown. The defense picked Stroud off four times, sacked him three times, and forced a fumble in their 28-16 victory in the AFC Divisional Round. Drake Maye was 16 of 27 for 179 yards, three touchdowns, and a pick. He rushed for 10 yards, was sacked five time,s and fumbled four times, losing two of them. Rhamondre Stevenson rushed 16 times for 70 yards. Kayshon Boutte caught three passes for 75 yards and a score. Stefon Diggs and DeMario Douglas hauled in TD passes as well. Denver (15-3) gets the home game thanks to an epic 33-30 win over the Buffalo Bills in the Divisional Round that ended Sean McDermott’s coaching tenure and revealed that the Bills are owned by a trashcan moron. Bo Nix was 26 of 46 for 279 yards, three touchdown,s and a pick in the win. He rushed 12 times for 28 yards and a broken ankle that ended his 2025-26 campaign. Marvin Mims, Jr. caught eight passes for 93 yards and a TD. Lil’Jordan Humphrey and Frank Crum both caught touchdowns. The defense picked Josh Allen off twice, sacked him three times, and forced three fumbles.
BEST BETS: Drake Maye Under 222.5 passing yards (-115), Drake Maye Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-115), Drake Maye over 30.5 rushing yards (+100)
With Jarrett Stidham starting at QB for the Broncos, he’s not really available for bets, but we do know (last week notwithstanding), Denver has one of the best pass rushes and passing defenses in the NFL. Therefore, I think this will be a low-scoring game; whoever wins, and Maye’s passing total being down and rushing totals being up will be the result.
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP
LOS ANGELES RAMS AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-2.5, O/U: 47)
The Rams (14-5) took the long way to the NFC Championship, winning their second game on the road in the Divisional Round, knocking off the Chicago Bears, 20-17, in overtime. Matthew Stafford was 20 of 42 for 258 yards, no touchdowns, and no picks in the game. He was sacked four times. Kyren Williams rushed 21 times for 87 yards and two TDs. Colby Parkinson and Puka Nacua both caught 56 yards worth of passes, with Parkinson doing it on three grabs and Nacua on five. The defense didn’t sack Caleb Williams, but did pick him off three times, including once in overtime that set up their winning drive. Seattle (15-3) kept its slot as the NFC’s top seed by knocking off the San Francisco 49ers, 41-6, for the second time in three weeks. Sam Darnold was 12 of 17 for 124 yards, one touchdown, and no interceptions in the win. He was sacked twice. Kenneth Walker III rushed 19 times for 116 yards and three touchdowns. Cooper Kupp caught five passes for 60 yard,s and Rasheed Shaheed returned the opening kickoff for a touchdown in what turned out to be all the scoring the Seahawks would need to win. The defense sacked Brock Purdy twice, picked him off onc,e and forced two fumbles.
BEST BETS: Matthew Stafford over 259.5 yards (-115), Matthew Stafford over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-115), Sam Darnold over 234.5 passing yards (-115), Sam Darnold over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-120)
The last time these teams met, the Seahawks won 38-37 in overtime, and both Stafford and Darnold had a day. It’s easy to see the defensive performances from last week for both teams and get some recency bias, but it ain’t been that long ago that both QBs lit up the skies in this same stadium.
Follow Adam Greene on Blue Sky @AdamGreene13, threads @adam.greene and Twitter @TheFirstMan
