NFL DIVISIONAL ROUND BEST BETS

Our best NFL Wild Card round in history puttered out in the final two games, but the Divisional Round looks to keep the party rolling all the way through. As usual, I will do my final picks against the spread and totals in the Friday Afternoon Quarterback, but here are your best individual bets in each contest. 

SATURDAY

BUFFALO BILLS AT DENVER BRONCOS (-1, O/U: 46)

Buffalo (13-5) shows up to face the top seed after holding on to a 27-24 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars last Sunday. Josh Allen was 28 of 35 for 273 yards, one touchdown, and no picks in the win. He rushed for 33 yards and two scores and was sacked once. Khalil Shakir caught 12 passes for 82 yards. The defense picked off Trevor Lawrence twice and sacked him once. The Broncos (14-3) had the week off thanks to being the No. 1 seed in the AFC. They last saw action in Week 18, beating the Los Angeles Chargers 19-3. Bo Nix was 14 of 23 for 141 yards, no touchdowns, and no interceptions. He added 49 yards on the ground and was sacked four times. The defense sacked Trey Lance four times and picked him off once. 

 BEST BETS: Josh Allen over 214.5 passing yards (-115), Over 0.5 interceptions thrown (+110), Over 8.5 rushing attempts (+110), Bo Nix Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+110), Over 0.5 interceptions thrown (-115)

This one is going to be a battle of quarterbacks, and it’s going to take some yardage and risky throws from each guy to pull it off. Neither QB is especially safe with the ball. 

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-7.5, O/U: 45)

The 49ers (13-5) upset the defending Super Bowl Champions on the road last week, beating the Philadelphia Eagles 23-19 in the Wild Card Round. Brock Purdy was 18 of 31 for 262 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions. He was sacked once. Demarcus Robinson caught six passes for 111 yards and a score. Christian McCaffrey rushed 15 times for 48 yards and caught six passes for 66 yards and two TDs. The defense sacked Jalen Hurts once. Seattle (14-3) got to watch the games from their Barcaloungers after securing the top seed in the NFC with a win over these same 49ers in Week 18, 13-3. Sam Darnold was 20 of 26 for 198 yards, no TDs, and no picks. He was sacked twice. Kenneth Walker III rushed 16 times for 97 yards. Zach Charbonnet rushed 17 times for 74 yards and scored the only touchdown. Jaxon Smith-Njiba caught six passes for 84 yards. The defense intercepted Purdy once, sacked him three times, and held the Niners to just 53 yards on the ground.

BEST BETS: Brock Purdy Under 230.5 passing yards (+100), Purdy over 22.5 completions (-130), Purdy Over 0.5 interceptions (-170), Sam Darnold Over 240.5 passing yards (-115), Darnold Over 0.5 interceptions thrown (-125)

Betting on Purdy and Darnold to throw a pick in the playoffs at this point is easy money. Darnold should be able to pile up yardage against a depleted San Fran defense. Purdy, on the other hand, will work the short field and hit his backup tight ends and Christian McCaffrey. 

SUNDAY

HOUSTON TEXANS AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-3.5, O/U: 40.5)

Houston (13-5) survived CJ Stroud’s worst playoff performance in his young career by ending both Mike Tomlin’s and Aaron Rodgers’s in a 30-6 blowout win over the Pittsburgh Steelers. Stroud finished the game 21 of 32 for 250 yards, one TD, and an interception. He was sacked three times and fumbled five times, losing two of them. Woody Marks rushed 19 times for 112 yards and a score. Christian Kirk caught eight passes for 144 yards and a touchdown. The defense picked Aaron Rodgers off once and returned it for a touchdown, sacked him four times, and returned one fumble for a touchdown. The Patriots (15-3) were the latest team to knock off the Justin Herbert-led Los Angeles Chargers in the Wild Card round, winning an ugly 16-3 game Sunday night. Drake Maye was 17 of 29 for 268 yards, one touchdown, and a pick. He was sacked five times, lost a fumble, but led the team with 66 yards on the ground. Rhamondre Stevenson rushed 10 times for 53 yards and caught three passes for 75 yards. Hunter Henry caught three balls for 64 yards and a score. The defense sacked Justin Herbert six times and recovered a game-ending fumble. 

BEST BETS: CJ Stroud over 215.5 passing yards & Drake Maye over 175.5 passing yards (+120)

I feel like this will be a very low-scoring defensive battle. We could be looking at a 16-13 final here. I feel like this parlay with some pretty pedestrian numbers for each guy should hit. 

LOS ANGELES RAMS AT CHICAGO BEARS (+3.5, O/U: 48.5)

The Rams (13-5) held off a Carolina Panthers team that came to play, winning on the road in the Wild Card game, 34-31. Matthew Stafford was 24 of 42 for 304 yards, three touchdowns, and a pick. He was sacked once. Puka Nacua scored a rushing touchdown and caught 10 passes for 11 yards. Davante Adams caught five balls for 72 yards. The defense intercepted Bryce Young once and sacked him twice. Chicago (12-6) exorcized some demons by beating the hated Green Bay Packers 31-27 Saturday night. Caleb Williams was 24 of 48 for 361 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions. He was sacked once. D’Andre Swift rushed 13 times for 54 yards and a score. Colston Loveland caught eight passes for 137 yards. DJ Moore had six grabs for 64 yards and a TD. The defense sacked Jordan Love once. 

BEST BETS: Total touchdowns Over 5.5 (-105), Total TDs Rams Over 2.5 (-180), Total TDs Bears Over 2.5 (+105)

Neither of these defenses can be trusted, and both offenses put up 30-plus last week. So, these look like easy bets to me.

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