NFL Week 11 Sunday Best Bets

We are entering the home stretch of the 2025 NFL regular season. No team has clinched a playoff berth yet, nor has any team been eliminated from the playoffs. However, that will soon change as we start to see little letters by teams’ names in the NFL standings. The New England Patriots are poised to make the postseason for the first time in four years following their win over the New York Jets on Thursday Night Football, while the Indianapolis Colts and Philadelphia Eagles are also in great position by virtue of their weak divisional opponents.

New York Giants +7 vs. Green Bay Packers

Green Bay has lost back-to-back games, so many pundits are picking the Packers this week against the lowly New York Giants. However, there are some really worrying things we have seen from the Green Bay offense over the last couple weeks. The Packers have scored just 20 points in home losses to Carolina and Philadelphia, and they failed to find the end zone until the fourth quarter in both games.

The offensive line has been the main problem for Green Bay. Josh Jacobs is getting hit at or behind the line of scrimmage way too often, and the Packers are now without their most reliable offensive lineman. Two-time Pro Bowl selection Elgton Jenkins moved from guard to center to help cover some deficiencies up front, but he suffered a fractured leg against Philadelphia last week and will likely be out for the remainder of the season. That will make this unit even weaker.

Meanwhile, the loss of Jaxson Dart is a big one for the Giants considering how he has played. Dart is in the NFL’s concussion protocol, so veteran Jameis Winston will get the start for Big Blue on Sunday.

Winston has been a feast or famine performer throughout his NFL career. He can make big throws and put up solid numbers, but he makes too many mistakes for a team to trust him as a long-term solution. Winston threw for 497 yards against Denver’s talented defense last December, yet three interceptions proved costly for Cleveland in that game.

We saw Winston light up Baltimore in his first start last season. The former No. 1 overall pick out of Florida State completed 27 of 41 passes for 334 yards and three touchdowns in a shocking 29-24 upset of the Ravens. Interim head coach Mike Kafka is aiming to become the permanent head coach of the Giants, and I expect him to craft a gameplan that will bring out the best in Winston. Don’t be surprised if the Giants win this game outright.

San Francisco 49ers -3 at Arizona Cardinals

Brock Purdy will make his first start since late September on Sunday. Mac Jones helped lead San Francisco to a 6-4 mark in Purdy’s absence, but it’s clear that the 49ers’ hopes rest on Purdy’s shoulders. The former Mr. Irrelevant is not 100% due to a nagging turf toe injury, yet he can stretch the field better than Jones, and that should help free up room for Christian McCaffrey.

Run CMC has been a great receiver out of the backfield, but his rushing stats leave a lot to be desired. McCaffrey is averaging just 3.5 YPC behind a revamped offensive line that is struggling to create holes for him to run through.

Arizona has completely fallen apart over the last two months. The Cardinals started the season 2-0, but they have since lost six of their last seven games and are at the bottom of the NFC West standings. Their first five losses were all by four points or less, yet the wheels flew off against Seattle last week.

Head coach Jonathan Gannon replaced Kyler Murray with Jacoby Brissett, and Brissett did not acquit himself well. The veteran signal caller lost two fumbles and completed just 50% of his passes for under 6.0 YPA. Those numbers were boosted by garbage time too as the Seahawks led 35-0 midway through the second quarter.

Brissett will have his work cut out for him again on Sunday. Arizona’s offensive line is an injury riddled mess, and the Cardinals will be without top receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. It’s hard to imagine Arizona putting up enough points to compete, so I expect Purdy to lead San Francisco to a resounding win in his return.

Philadelphia Eagles -3 vs. Detroit Lions

Although the Philadelphia Eagles are 7-2 and coming off a Super Bowl win, there has been plenty of criticism levied against head coach Nick Sirianni and quarterback Jalen Hurts. Philly earned a gritty 10-7 win at Green Bay last week, yet that didn’t silence the doubters ahead of this week’s media availability.

The Eagles have a fantastic defense with talent at every level. General manager Howie Roseman’s decision to draft talented players from Georgia has paid off as Jordan Davis, Jalen Carter, Nakobe Dean, and Nolan Smith Jr. are all starters in the front seven. Philadelphia is very healthy on this side of the ball too, and that’s very important this late in the season.

Much has been made of Philly’s perceived troubles, but Detroit’s issues haven’t been nearly as publicized. Dan Campbell took over playcalling duties from offensive coordinator John Morton last week, and the Lions put together their best performance of the season. However, that outing came against a Washington team that set an NFL record with four consecutive losses by 20 or more points.

Detroit is dealing with some major injury issues. Starting offensive tackles Penei Sewell and Taylor Decker are both listed as questionable, and they are the best tackle duo in the NFL. Tight end Sam LaPorta will be unavailable too, as well as almost all of the Lions’ reserve tackles.

To make matters worse, Detroit’s defense has been decimated by injuries. The secondary is especially banged up, but the depth in the front seven is razor thin. That’s not a good sign against a Philadelphia offensive line that should be able to open up holes for Saquon Barkley.