NFL Week 15 Top 3 Games And Betting Insight For Leading Playoff Teams

The path to the postseason is tight, and the top 3 games in NFL Week 15 action will clarify some of the chaos across the final four games of the regular season. Early point spread betting at BetOnline for the three biggest games shows support for both the underdogs and favorites, with the two top teams by record in the AFC both home underdogs.

The Next Gen Stats playoff probability model has the Denver Broncos (11-2) and New England Patriots (11-2) with a 42% and 39% chance to be the AFC’s No. 1 seed and have a first-round bye. Both teams have at least an 80% chance to win their divisions in Week 15 key games. 

The NFC battle for the No. 1 seed has more quality teams, with the Los Angeles Rams (10-3) leading division rival Seattle Seahawks (10-3) by current tiebreaker, with a 45% and 32% chance to be the No. 1 seed. Green Bay (9-3-1) follows at 12%, and the Packers are a slight road favorite at Denver this Sunday. The top-seeded Rams (10-3) are separated by just one game from the sixth-seeded San Francisco 49ers (9-4) and seventh-seeded Chicago Bears (9-4). The Rams-Seahawks rematch is next Saturday, Dec. 20, in Seattle, with the Seahawks an early 1-point favorite at BetOnline NFL odds.   

Sunday, Dec. 14

Buffalo (-1) at New England. Game total 49.5 points. The Patriots ride a 10-game winning streak into this key division duel, and also enter off a bye as a home underdog. Just one of New England’s last eight opponents has a winning record. Plenty of live/in-game betting for this key AFC East contest as the Bills (9-4) must win, or the Patriots (11-2) clinch the division title having already beaten the Bills 28-20 as an 8-point underdog on Oct. 5. That was New England’s 5th straight against the spread (ATS) cover in this series. Patriots QB Drake Maye is the AFC’s top-rated quarterback while leading the conference with 3,412 passing yards at 8.8 yards per pass and a 23/6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He’s also rushed for 319 yards and 2 touchdowns, and Maye (+200) is second behind Rams QB Matthew Stafford (-195) in NFL Most Valuable Player odds. 

Reigning league MVP Josh Allen (currently +1100) has passed for 3,082 yards at 8.2 yppl with a 22/10 TD-INT ratio while also rushing for 487 yards and 12 more touchdowns. Allen rushed for 78 yards in last week’s 39-34 win over the Bengals, a season high for quarterbacks in 2025. Bills key DE Joey Bosa returns after missing last week’s game, and injury reports should be monitored along with NFL weather, which shows freezing temperatures near 30 degrees in Foxboro with 10 mph winds gusting to 20 mph. The Bills’ defense is allowing 135 rushing yards per game and 5.1 yards per rush – both bottom-5 in the league. The Patriots’ defense ranks better than the Bills in yards per play, defensive points allowed, yardage differential, and defensive yards per rush. The schedule of opponents needs to be considered, but teams that have an edge over their opponent in those four defensive categories went 4-1 ATS last week in competitively lined games like this one (6 points or less). 

Green Bay (-2) at Denver. Game total 42.5 points. This total has dipped, and a totals tip suggests a lower-scoring defensive duel between two top defenses and high DVOA rankings as the Packers and Broncos push for division titles and top seeds in the NFC and AFC. The Broncos have the 6th-highest blitz rate in the NFL while leading the league in sacks (55) and on pace to set the single-season sack record (72). Packers QB Jordan Love was 8-of-11 for 126 yards against the Bears blitz last week, but his QB ranking is poor in this week’s matchup against the Broncos’ Class A defense, and Bo Nix isn’t much better. Broncos head coach Sean Payton’s system and play designs are built more on quick-rhythm, high-percentage throws with packaged plays designed to beat the blitz. But the Packers blitz just 24% of the time (30th), and the Broncos rank 27th against a standard pass rush compared to the blitz.  

Detroit at Los Angeles Rams (-6), game total 55 points. The Rams currently rate as the best team in the NFL, led by MVP favorite QB Matthew Stafford and a top-tier defense that has some concerns in the secondary in this matchup against the special skill position players of the Lions. The trade and swap of QBs Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff has worked out well for both teams and organizations, as the Lions have built a dynamic offense and improved defense. Still, Detroit is on the outside looking in at the playoffs as they tackle the Rams, and coach Dan Campbell is 60-35-2 ATS in all NFL games, including 26-10 SU and 26-9-1 ATS against opponents coming off a SU and ATS win (7-0 ATS as a ‘Dog of 4 or more points). Quality quarterbacks who pass with precision to top-rated wide receivers and Lions leading running back Jahmyr Gibbs make for the most-watched and wagered, engaging and entertaining game on Sunday.   

Super Bowl Odds And Bet

The NFC is stronger and deeper, making a Super Bowl bet on the NFC -2.5 at current odds a preferred play as you evaluate Super Bowl futures bets. Current odds to win the Super Bowl show the following odds for the leading favorites and contenders, including the six teams playing in the top 3 games in Week 15. 

• +375: Los Angeles Rams
• +700: Seattle Seahawks
• +800: Green Bay Packers
• +850: Buffalo Bills
• +1000: New England Patriots
• +1000: Denver Broncos
• +1200: Philadelphia Eagles
• +1600: Houston Texans
• +2000: Detroit Lions
• +2000: Jacksonville Jaguars

Understanding how to bet on the NFL, including player props, futures, and live/in-game betting, will sharpen your skills when you watch and wager on the rest of the regular season and NFL playoffs. Note that many projected AFC playoff teams will be hosting games in New England (Foxboro), Denver, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, or Baltimore. Add in NFC leaders Green Bay, Philadelphia, along with Chicago and Seattle, and you can count on inclement weather and wind impacting play, performances, and scoring in the NFL playoffs. 

You can bet on it.